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href="/about/"><i class="fa-fw fas fa-heart"></i><span> 关于</span></a></div></div><div id="toggle-menu"><a class="site-page"><i class="fas fa-bars fa-fw"></i></a></div></div></nav><div id="site-info"><h1 id="site-title">WhyDwelledOnAi's Blogs</h1><div id="site_social_icons"><a class="social-icon" href="https://github.com/WhyDwelledOnAi" target="_blank" title="Github"><i class="fab fa-github"></i></a><a class="social-icon" href="mailto:2020202817@ruc.edu.cn" target="_blank" title="Email"><i class="fas fa-envelope"></i></a></div></div><div id="scroll-down"><i class="fas fa-angle-down scroll-down-effects"></i></div></header><main class="layout" id="content-inner"><div class="recent-posts" id="recent-posts"><div class="recent-post-item"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="/2022/01/28/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E3%80%81%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%BB%BC%E8%BF%B0/" title="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述"><img class="post_bg" src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><a class="article-title" href="/2022/01/28/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E3%80%81%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%BB%BC%E8%BF%B0/" title="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述">【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述</a><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="fas fa-history"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time datetime="2022-02-07T12:33:09.043Z" title="更新于 2022-02-07 20:33:09">2022-02-07</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><span class="article-meta-separator">|</span><i class="fas fa-tag"></i><a class="article-meta__tags" href="/tags/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB/">国际关系</a><span class="article-meta-link">•</span><a class="article-meta__tags" href="/tags/%E8%AE%A1%E9%87%8F%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6/">计量经济学</a></span></div><div class="content">国际关系、贸易流量分析的模型综述贸易流量分析的相关方法总体开放度衡量一国融入世界贸易的最常用度量指标就是开放程度，其中贸易相对GDP的度量是最常见的方法。此时$i$国的开放度可以定义为:
Q^i = \frac{X^i+M^i}{Y^i}其中$X^i, M_i, Y_i$分别代表 $i$国的出口总额、进口总额和GDP，$Q^i$越高， 则该国的开放度越高。然而，这种开放度的定义只能度量同一国家或地区在不同时间的开放度而不能进行跨国比较。为了方便国家间的比较，我们往往使用这个国家的实际贸易量与预期贸易量的差值（称为残值）来代表开放度。在基本情况给定时，可以运行贸易开放度回归模型:
O^i = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1y_i + \alpha_2LL_i + \alpha_3R_i + u_i其中$y_i$是人均GDP，当国家$i$为内陆国时$LL_i$等于1，否则为0(即哑变量)，$R_i$是偏远程度，$u_i$是误差项。方程可以用OLS来估计。当$O_i - \hat{O_i}$为正时，表示给定特征下国家贸易量比预期量要多。这样做，可以排除国家间多种因素的干扰。另外，简 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="/2022/01/16/%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%94%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/" title="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南"><img class="post_bg" src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><a class="article-title" href="/2022/01/16/%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%94%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/" title="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南">【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南</a><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="fas fa-history"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time datetime="2022-02-07T11:27:58.869Z" title="更新于 2022-02-07 19:27:58">2022-02-07</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><span class="article-meta-separator">|</span><i class="fas fa-tag"></i><a class="article-meta__tags" href="/tags/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6/">经济学</a></span></div><div class="content">项目背景在参加“大学生创新创业训练计划”比赛时, 我与经济学院、国际关系学院、信息资源管理学院的几位同学一同合作, 在中国人民大学国际关系学院的指导下进行一些有关于国际贸易政策的研究. 小组研究方向为“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(CREP)”生效对我国进出口的影响问题, 因此需要学习一些有关于贸易政策分析的建模方法, 故浅陋地学习《贸易政策分析实用指南》一书的部分内容, 做了一些整理工作.
导论通过应用分析支持贸易政策决策如今, 贸易的开放引发了越来越多的争议. 对贸易政策的决策者和利益相关者而言, 获得详细、可靠的信息并对贸易政策的影响进行分析就显得非常重要. 从国际经济学教科书中的关税和配额到现实世界中的关税和非关税措施丛林有很长的路要走. 因此, 本书为读者在分析现实世界的贸易和贸易政策时如何获得关键数据和使用有效分析工具提供指导.
本书首先讨论贸易流量和贸易政策的量化, 量化贸易流量和贸易政策在描述、比较或跟踪不同部门、国家之间的贸易政策演变或随着时间推移贸易政策的演变方面非常有用. 然后, 本书提出了一个引力模型. 该模型有助于理解贸易的决定因素和贸易模式, 也有助于评估某些 ...</div></div></div><div class="recent-post-item"><div class="post_cover left"><a href="/2022/01/11/%E3%80%90%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E3%80%91%E5%88%9D%E7%AD%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B/" title="【数学建模】初等模型"><img class="post_bg" src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【数学建模】初等模型"></a></div><div class="recent-post-info"><a class="article-title" href="/2022/01/11/%E3%80%90%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E3%80%91%E5%88%9D%E7%AD%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B/" title="【数学建模】初等模型">【数学建模】初等模型</a><div class="article-meta-wrap"><span class="post-meta-date"><i class="fas fa-history"></i><span class="article-meta-label">更新于</span><time datetime="2022-02-07T11:29:03.013Z" title="更新于 2022-02-07 19:29:03">2022-02-07</time></span><span class="article-meta tags"><span class="article-meta-separator">|</span><i class="fas fa-tag"></i><a class="article-meta__tags" href="/tags/%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1/">数学建模</a></span></div><div class="content">如果研究对象的机理比较简单,一般用静态、线性、确定性模型描述就能达到建模目的。衡量一个模型的优劣全在于其应用效果，而不是采用了多么高深的数学方法。
双层玻璃窗的功效——热传导划艇比赛的成绩——受力分析实物交换——无差别曲线汽车刹车距离与道路通行能力——匀变速直线运动估计出租车的总数——基本统计量与数值模拟评选举重冠军——用图像拟合函数解读CPI核军备竞赛——相图 </div></div></div><nav id="pagination"><div class="pagination"><span class="page-number current">1</span></div></nav></div><div class="aside-content" id="aside-content"><div class="card-widget card-info"><div class="is-center"><div class="avatar-img"><img src="https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.0f18cf0dc8457a55ac0b5b043f5c1c24?rik=3tufhialfKj48w&riu=http%3a%2f%2fimg.zcool.cn%2fcommunity%2f0191fa57ce37cc0000018c1ba65f65.jpg%402o.jpg&ehk=zP%2fRjq4g%2flMwcQe7e1gWQFz%2bvr5HdRnVcvCXUyqC8cs%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/friend_404.gif'" alt="avatar"/></div><div class="author-info__name">Haoyu Wang</div><div class="author-info__description">decorate my heart</div></div><div class="card-info-data is-center"><div class="card-info-data-item"><a href="/archives/"><div class="headline">文章</div><div class="length-num">3</div></a></div><div class="card-info-data-item"><a href="/tags/"><div class="headline">标签</div><div class="length-num">4</div></a></div><div class="card-info-data-item"><a href="/categories/"><div class="headline">分类</div><div class="length-num">0</div></a></div></div><a id="card-info-btn" target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://github.com/xxxxxx"><i class="fab fa-github"></i><span>Follow Me</span></a><div class="card-info-social-icons is-center"><a class="social-icon" href="https://github.com/WhyDwelledOnAi" target="_blank" title="Github"><i class="fab fa-github"></i></a><a class="social-icon" href="mailto:2020202817@ruc.edu.cn" target="_blank" title="Email"><i class="fas fa-envelope"></i></a></div></div><div class="card-widget card-announcement"><div class="item-headline"><i class="fas fa-bullhorn card-announcement-animation"></i><span>公告</span></div><div class="announcement_content">This is my Blog</div></div><div class="sticky_layout"><div class="card-widget card-recent-post"><div class="item-headline"><i class="fas fa-history"></i><span>最新文章</span></div><div class="aside-list"><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="/2022/01/28/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E3%80%81%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%BB%BC%E8%BF%B0/" title="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述"><img src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="/2022/01/28/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB%E3%80%81%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E7%9A%84%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E7%BB%BC%E8%BF%B0/" title="【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述">【大创】贸易政策、贸易流量分析的模型综述</a><time datetime="2022-01-28T05:55:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-28 13:55:00">2022-01-28</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="/2022/01/16/%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%94%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/" title="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南"><img src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="/2022/01/16/%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%AE%9E%E7%94%A8%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/" title="【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南">【大创】贸易政策分析实用指南</a><time datetime="2022-01-16T02:02:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-16 10:02:00">2022-01-16</time></div></div><div class="aside-list-item"><a class="thumbnail" href="/2022/01/11/%E3%80%90%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E3%80%91%E5%88%9D%E7%AD%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B/" title="【数学建模】初等模型"><img src="https://i.loli.net/2020/05/01/gkihqEjXxJ5UZ1C.jpg" onerror="this.onerror=null;this.src='/img/404.jpg'" alt="【数学建模】初等模型"/></a><div class="content"><a class="title" href="/2022/01/11/%E3%80%90%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E3%80%91%E5%88%9D%E7%AD%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B/" title="【数学建模】初等模型">【数学建模】初等模型</a><time datetime="2022-01-11T05:55:00.000Z" title="发表于 2022-01-11 13:55:00">2022-01-11</time></div></div></div></div><div class="card-widget card-tags"><div class="item-headline"><i class="fas fa-tags"></i><span>标签</span></div><div class="card-tag-cloud"><a href="/tags/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB/" style="font-size: 1.1em; 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