bibliography.bib

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@ARTICLE{Verity2020-qx,
  title    = "Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a
              model-based analysis",
  author   = "Verity, Robert and Okell, Lucy C and Dorigatti, Ilaria and
              Winskill, Peter and Whittaker, Charles and Imai, Natsuko and
              Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina and Thompson, Hayley and Walker, Patrick G
              T and Fu, Han and Dighe, Amy and Griffin, Jamie T and Baguelin,
              Marc and Bhatia, Sangeeta and Boonyasiri, Adhiratha and Cori,
              Anne and Cucunub{\'a}, Zulma and FitzJohn, Rich and Gaythorpe,
              Katy and Green, Will and Hamlet, Arran and Hinsley, Wes and
              Laydon, Daniel and Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma and Riley, Steven and
              van Elsland, Sabine and Volz, Erik and Wang, Haowei and Wang,
              Yuanrong and Xi, Xiaoyue and Donnelly, Christl A and Ghani, Azra
              C and Ferguson, Neil M",
  abstract = "BACKGROUND: In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case
              fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
              have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We
              aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and
              ascertainment biases. METHODS: We collected individual-case data
              for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China
              (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8,
              2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government
              or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37
              countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020).
              These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between
              onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital).
              We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality
              ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the
              observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack
              rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and
              location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case
              fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases
              identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the
              prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents
              repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of
              the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified
              severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to
              estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to
              require hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Using data on 24 deaths that
              occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China,
              we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to
              be 17·8 days (95\% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to
              hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory
              confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China
              (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted
              for censoring) of 3·67\% (95\% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after
              further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we
              obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of
              1·38\% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age
              groups (0·32\% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4\%
              [5·7-7·2] in those aged $\geq$60 years), up to 13·4\% (11·2-15·9)
              in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio
              from international cases stratified by age were consistent with
              those from China (parametric estimate 1·4\% [0·4-3·5] in those
              aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5\% [1·8-11·1] in those aged
              $\geq$60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality
              ratio for China was 0·66\% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing
              profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of
              infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age
              up to a maximum of 18·4\% (11·0-7·6) in those aged 80 years or
              older. INTERPRETATION: These early estimates give an indication
              of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and
              show a strong age gradient in risk of death. FUNDING: UK Medical
              Research Council.",
  journal  = "Lancet Infect. Dis.",
  month    =  mar,
  year     =  2020,
  language = "en"
}

@ARTICLE{Hamouda2020-iy,
  title     = "Sch{\"a}tzung der aktuellen Entwicklung der
               {SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie} in {Deutschland--Nowcasting}",
  author    = "Hamouda, Osamah and {Others}",
  publisher = "Robert Koch-Institut",
  year      =  2020
}

@ARTICLE{Flaxman2020-qy,
  title  = "Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of
            non-pharmaceutical interventions on {COVID-19} in 11 European
            countries",
  author = "Flaxman, Seth and Mishra, Swapnil and Gandy, Axel and Unwin, H and
            Coupland, H and Mellan, T and Zhu, H and Berah, T and Eaton, J and
            Perez Guzman, P and {Others}",
  year   =  2020
}

@misc{BlogLink,
  title = {COVID-19: Estimates of true infections, case fatality and growth rates in Germany},
  author = "Schmid, Clemens and Schiffels, Stephan",
  howpublished = {\url{https://medium.com/stephan-schiffels/covid-19-estimates-of-true-infections-case-fatality-and-growth-rates-in-germany-383285f99966}},
  note = {Accessed: 2020-04-18}
}