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Minor edits to main paper.
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sampottinger committed Dec 18, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ The claims rate elevates in the 2030 series and doubles in the 2050 timeframe wh
We observe a number of policy-relevant dynamics when simulating insurance instrument mechanics under climate change.

## Yield expectations
Figure @fig:hist reveals possible challenges with using a simple average in crop insurance products. Current instruments expect $y_{expected}$ to capture changes to risk but simulations anticipate that higher yield volatility skews yield delta distributions such that simulated risk units see higher claims rates despite changes to their yield average.
Figure @fig:hist reveals possible challenges with using a simple average in crop insurance products. While current instruments use $y_{expected}$ to capture changes to risk, our simulations anticipate higher yield volatility to skew yield delta distributions such that simulated risk units see higher claims rates despite a changing $y_{expected}$.

![Interactive tool screenshot showing 2050 outcomes distribution as changes from $y_{expected}$, plotting deltas and claims rates with climate change on the top and without further climate change (counterfactual) on bottom.](./img/hist.png "Interactive tool screenshot showing 2050 outcomes distribution as changes from $y_{expected}$, plotting deltas and claims rates with climate change on the top and without further climate change (counterfactual) on bottom."){#fig:hist}

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