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2020-05-01: fixed row change at data of RKI
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koepferl committed May 1, 2020
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26 changes: 26 additions & 0 deletions Documentation_COVID19_Local.ipynb
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"* loglog plot https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/loglog_Bavaria.pdf\n",
" Almost all counties move steep downwards (less infections every day) this means people are recovering faster than new once are becoming infected. This is good, our health system does not break down.\n",
"\n",
"### Dataset downloaded 2020-05-01\n",
"\n",
"* DT evolution https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/DT_Bavaria.pdf: \n",
" Most counties have now higher doubling times, isolation works. Stay put.\n",
" \n",
" * Bavaria with 96.10 d:\n",
" * 5 counties with lowest DTS (the larger the better):\n",
" * 17.73 30.4 LK Kitzingen\n",
" * 27.24 24.4 SK Coburg\n",
" * 28.90 27.4 LK Neumarkt i.d.OPf.\n",
" * 29.21 30.4 LK Passau\n",
" * 30.58 30.4 LK Rhoen-Grabfeld\n",
" * 5 counties with highest DTs (the larger the better):\n",
" * 217.76 28.4 LK Lindau\n",
" * 223.33 29.4 LK Ostallgaeu\n",
" * 223.42 30.4 LK Tirschenreuth\n",
" * 247.88 30.4 LK Rottal-Inn\n",
" * 282.06 30.4 SK Ingolstadt\n",
"\n",
"* Semi-log plots https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/tree/master/plots: \n",
"\n",
" Counties with still very low DTs show also no flattening; with high DT almost a horizontal trend.\n",
" \n",
"* loglog plot https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/loglog_Bavaria.pdf\n",
" Almost all counties move steep downwards (less infections every day) this means people are recovering faster than new once are becoming infected. This is good, our health system does not break down.\n",
" \n",
"\n",
"* New: In some counties now there a again more cases coming in, this causes the slope to steepen in the semilog plot, the DTs get shorter again and in the log-log plot the droping trend is revercing. In the expert plot we can see that also the reproduction time is goint up once the DT drops. The end of the loc-down is now visible.\n",
" \n",
"More interpretation follows tomorrow.\n",
"\n",
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29 changes: 27 additions & 2 deletions Documentation_COVID19_Local_German.ipynb
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" Ganz interessant, bei einigen Landkreisen gibt es einen kleinen “Osterhaken\" ungefähr eine Woche nach Ostern. Da war die Disziplin wohl nicht ganz so strickt. Ich hoffe des wird jetzt (wo noch mehr erlaubt) nicht wieder zu schlimm. Obwohl ich es eigentlich erwarte.\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"### Datendownload 2020-04-26\n",
"### Datendownload 2020-04-28\n",
"\n",
"* DT Entwicklung https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/DT_Bavaria.pdf: \n",
" Die meisten Kreise haben höhere Verdopplungszeiten, Isolation funktioniert. Bleibt dahoam, auf Abstand oder tragt Masken.\n",
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" \n",
" Ganz interessant, bei einigen Landkreisen gibt es einen kleinen “Osterhaken\" ungefähr eine Woche nach Ostern. Da war die Disziplin wohl nicht ganz so strickt. Ich hoffe des wird jetzt (wo noch mehr erlaubt) nicht wieder zu schlimm. Obwohl ich es eigentlich erwarte.\n",
"\n",
"### Datendownload 2020-05-01\n",
"\n",
" \n",
"* DT Entwicklung https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/DT_Bavaria.pdf: \n",
" Die meisten Kreise haben höhere Verdopplungszeiten, Isolation funktioniert. Bleibt dahoam, auf Abstand oder tragt Masken.\n",
" * Bayern mit 96.10 Tage:\n",
" * 5 Kreise mit den niedriger Verdopplungszeiten (umso groesser desto besser):\n",
" * 17.73 30.4 LK Kitzingen\n",
" * 27.24 24.4 SK Coburg\n",
" * 28.90 27.4 LK Neumarkt i.d.OPf.\n",
" * 29.21 30.4 LK Passau\n",
" * 30.58 30.4 LK Rhoen-Grabfeld\n",
" * 5 Kreise mit den hoechsten Verdopplungszeiten (umso groesser desto besser):\n",
" * 217.76 28.4 LK Lindau\n",
" * 223.33 29.4 LK Ostallgaeu\n",
" * 223.42 30.4 LK Tirschenreuth\n",
" * 247.88 30.4 LK Rottal-Inn\n",
" * 282.06 30.4 SK Ingolstadt\n",
"\n",
"* Semi-log plots https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/tree/master/plots: \n",
"\n",
" Kreise mit sehr niedrigen DTs werden nicht/kaum flacher; mit sehr großen DTs ist der Verlauf fast horizontal. \n",
" \n",
"* loglog plot https://github.com/koepferl/COVID19Dahoam/blob/master/loglog_Bavaria.pdf: \n",
"\n",
" Man sieht schon einen beginnenden Abwärtstrend für Kreise mit sehr hohen DTs. Das ist sehr gut, es bedeutet, dass weniger Menschen krank werden. Weniger Infektionen pro Tag bedeutet das die Anzahl der Genesenen bald stark zunimmt und unser Gesundheitssystem so nicht überlastet wird. \n",
" \n",
"\n",
"* Neu: Viele Landkreise haben nun steigende tägliche Fallzahlen. Dies hat Auswirkungen auf die Steigung im Semi-log plot. Die Steigung wird wieder steiler, im DT plot wird die Verdopplungszeit dadurch wieder kürzer, im log-log plot wird der Abwärtstrend gebrochen und es geht wieder nach oben. Das Ende der Ausgangsperre ist nun auch in den Diagrammen angekommen. \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions README.md
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Expand Up @@ -11,3 +11,4 @@ Here the diagrams for the 96 Bavarian counties (more coming) of the evolution of
* German: see Documentation_COVID19_Local_German.ipynb, plots/LK Miesbach.pdf, DT.pdf
* Credits: Christine Greif (see documentation for further information)
* Thanks to Prof. Andreas Burkert (LMU)
* Note: This code grew very quickly and was originally not intended to go public. It is full of German phrases, as at the beginning I made this plots for may family. If you have questions contact me.
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