DAEDALUS.bib

@article{Abaluck2022,
  title = {Impact of Community Masking on {{COVID-19}}: {{A}} Cluster-Randomized Trial in {{Bangladesh}}},
  author = {Abaluck, Jason and Kwong, Laura H. and Styczynski, Ashley and Haque, Ashraful and Kabir, Md Alamgir and {Bates-Jeffery}, Ellen and Crawford, Emily and {Benjamin-Chun}, Jade and Raihan, Shabib and Rahman, Shadman and Benhachmi, Salim and Bintee, Neeti Zaman and Winch, Peter J. and Hossain, Maqsud and Reza, Hasan Mahmud and Jaber, Abdullah All and Momen, Shawkee Gulshan and Rahman, Aura and Banti, Faika Laz and Huq, Tahrima Saiha and Luby, Stephen P. and Mobarak, A. M.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Science},
  volume = {375},
  number = {6577},
  issn = {10959203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.abi9069},
  abstract = {We conducted a cluster-randomized trial to measure the effect of community-level mask distribution and promotion on symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N = 600 villages, N = 342,183 adults). We crossrandomized mask type (cloth versus surgical) and promotion strategies at the village and household level. Proper mask-wearing increased from 13.3\% in the control group to 42.3\% in the intervention arm (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.29; 95\% confidence interval = [0.26, 0.31]). The intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.91 [0.82, 1.00]), especially among adults {$\geq$}60 years old in villages where surgical masks were distributed (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.65 [0.45, 0.85]). Mask distribution with promotion was a scalable and effective method to reduce symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.},
  pmid = {34855513}
}

@article{Acton2019,
  title = {Taxes and Front-of-Package Labels Improve the Healthiness of Beverage and Snack Purchases: {{A}} Randomized Experimental Marketplace},
  author = {Acton, Rachel B. and Jones, Amanda C. and Kirkpatrick, Sharon I. and Roberto, Christina A. and Hammond, David},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity},
  volume = {16},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--15},
  publisher = {{International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity}},
  issn = {14795868},
  doi = {10.1186/s12966-019-0799-0},
  pmid = {31113448},
  keywords = {Experimental marketplace,Front-of-package labels,Health warnings,Sugar tax,Sugar-sweetened beverages,Taxes}
}

@techreport{ADB2018,
  title = {Cost--Benefit Analysis of Face-to-Face Closure of Schools to Control {{COVID-19}} in the {{Philippines}}},
  author = {Raitzer, David A. and Lavado, Rouselle F. and Rabajante, Jomar and Javier, Xylee and Garces, Ludigil and Amoranto, Glenita},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {ADB Briefs},
  number = {162},
  institution = {Asian Development Bank},
  doi = {10.1111/apa.15371.7},
  isbn = {9789292572327},
  keywords = {basic education,education,K-12,K-12 and,K1-12}
}

@article{agrawalIMPACTGLOBALCOVID192023,
  title = {{{THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINATION CAMPAIGN}}},
  author = {Agrawal, Virat and Sood, Neeraj and Whaley, Christopher M},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {NBER},
  pages = {31812},
  keywords = {Economics of Health}
}

@techreport{Akmal2020,
  title = {Gendered Impacts of {{COVID-19}} School Closures: {{Insights}} from Frontline Organisations},
  author = {Akmal, Maryam and Hares, Susannah and O'Donnell, Megan},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {CGD Policy Paper 175},
  institution = {Center for Global Development}
}

@article{AlbanConto2021,
  title = {Potential Effects of {{COVID-19}} School Closures on Foundational Skills and Country Responses for Mitigating Learning Loss},
  author = {Alban Conto, Carolina and Akseer, Spogmai and Dreesen, Thomas and Kamei, Akito and Mizunoya, Suguru and Rigole, Annika},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Educational Development},
  volume = {87},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {0738-0593},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ijedudev.2021.102434},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Educational effectiveness,Foundational skills,Learning loss,Remote learning}
}

@techreport{Alon2020,
  title = {How Should Policy Responses to the {{Covid-19}} Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?},
  author = {Alon, Titan M. and Kim, Minki and Lagakos, David and Vuren, Mitchell Van},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {NBER Working Paper Series 27273},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}
}

@article{Ananthapavan2021,
  title = {Systematic Review to Update `Value of a Statistical Life' Estimates for {{Australia}}},
  author = {Ananthapavan, Jaithri and Moodie, Marj and Milat, Andrew J. and Carter, Rob},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
  volume = {18},
  number = {11},
  issn = {16604601},
  doi = {10.3390/ijerph18116168},
  pmid = {34200344},
  keywords = {Cost-benefit analysis,Systematic review,Value of a statistical life}
}

@article{andrews2021,
  title = {Effectiveness of {{COVID-19}} Vaccines against the {{Omicron}} ({{B}}.1.1.529) Variant of Concern},
  author = {Andrews, Nick and Stowe, Julia and Kirsebom, Freja and Toffa, Samuel and Rickeard, Tim and Gallagher, Eileen and Gower, Charlotte and Kall, Meaghan and Groves, Natalie and O'Connell, Anne-Marie and Simons, David and Blomquist, Paula B. and Zaidi, Asad and Nash, Sophie and Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz, Nurin and Thelwall, Simon and Dabrera, Gavin and Myers, Richard and Amirthalingam, Gayatri and Gharbia, Saheer and Barrett, Jeffrey C. and Elson, Richard and Ladhani, Shamez N and Ferguson, Neil and Zambon, Maria and Campbell, Colin NJ and Brown, Kevin and Hopkins, Susan and Chand, Meera and Ramsay, Mary and Lopez Bernal, Jamie},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {medRxiv},
  issn = {0028-4793},
  doi = {10.1056/nejmoa2108891},
  pmid = {34289274}
}

@article{Angelis2021,
  title = {The Need for Novel Approaches in Assessing the Value of {{COVID-19}} Vaccines},
  author = {Angelis, Aris and Baltussen, Rob and Tervonen, Tommi},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {American Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {111},
  number = {2}
}

@article{ArantxaCochero2017,
  title = {In {{Mexico}}, Evidence of Sustained Consumer Response Two Years after Implementing a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax},
  author = {Arantxa Cochero, M. and {Rivera-Dommarco}, Juan and Popkin, Barry M. and Ng, Shu Wen},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Health Affairs},
  volume = {36},
  number = {3},
  pages = {564--571},
  issn = {15445208},
  doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1231},
  pmid = {28228484}
}

@article{Araoz2021,
  title = {Effectiveness of Homologous and Heterologous Booster Shots for an Inactivated {{SARS-CoV-2}} Vaccine: {{A}} Large-Scale Observational Study},
  author = {Jara, Alejandro and Undurraga, Eduardo A. and Zubizarreta, Jos{\'e} R. and Gonz{\'a}lez, Cecilia and Pizarro, Alejandra and Acevedo, Johanna and Leo, Katherinne and Paredes, Fabio and Tomas, Bralic and Veronica, Vergara and Marcelo, Mosso and Leon, Francisco and Ignacio, Parot and Leighton, Paulina and Su{\'a}rez, Pamela and Juan, Carlos Rios and {Garc{\'i}a-Escorza}, Heriberto and Araos, Rafael},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Under Review}
}

@techreport{Arellano2020,
  title = {Deadly Debt Crises: {{COVID-19}} in Emerging Markets},
  author = {Arellano, Cristina and Bai, Yan and Mihalache, Gabriel},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {NBER Working Paper No. 27275},
  doi = {10.21034/sr.603},
  abstract = {The COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets risks a combined health, economic, and debt crisis. We integrate a standard epidemiology model into a sovereign default model and study how default risk impacts the ability of these countries to respond to the epidemic. Lockdown policies are useful for alleviating the health crisis but they carry large economic costs and can generate costly and prolonged debt crises. The possibility of lockdown induced debt crises in turn results in less aggressive lockdowns and a more severe health crisis. We find that the social value of debt relief can be substantial because it can prevent the debt crisis and can save lives.},
  keywords = {Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),Debt,Debt crisis,Default risk,Economic cost,Economics,Emerging markets,Monetary economics,Sovereign debt,Sovereign default}
}

@article{Arndt2020,
  title = {Covid-19 Lockdowns, Income Distribution, and Food Security: {{An}} Analysis for {{South Africa}}},
  author = {Arndt, Channing and Davies, Rob and Gabriel, Sherwin and Harris, Laurence and Makrelov, Konstantin and Robinson, Sherman and Levy, Stephanie and Simbanegavi, Witness and {van Seventer}, Dirk and Anderson, Lillian},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Global Food Security},
  volume = {26},
  number = {July},
  pages = {100410},
  publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
  issn = {22119124},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100410},
  abstract = {Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive health effects of strong distancing measures, such as lockdowns, against their economic costs, especially the burdens imposed on low income and food insecure households. The distancing measures deployed by South Africa impose large economic costs and have negative implications for the factor distribution of income. Labor with low education levels are much more strongly affected than labor with secondary or tertiary education. As a result, households with low levels of educational attainment and high dependence on labor income would experience an enormous real income shock that would clearly jeopardize the food security of these households. However, in South Africa, total incomes for low income households are significantly insulated by government transfer payments. From public health, income distribution and food security perspectives, the remarkably rapid and severe shocks imposed because of Covid-19 illustrate the value of having in place transfer policies that support vulnerable households in the event of `black swan' type shocks.},
  keywords = {Covid-19 impacts,Food security,Income distribution,SAM multiplier Model}
}

@article{arrow1961,
  title = {Capital-Labor Substitution and Economic Efficiency},
  author = {K. J. Arrow, H. B. Chenery, B. S. Minhas {and} R. M. Solow},
  year = {1961},
  journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
  volume = {43},
  pages = {222--250}
}

@techreport{Authority2022,
  title = {2021 {{Full Year Official Poverty Statistics}} of the {{Philippines}}},
  author = {{Philippine Statistics Authority}},
  year = {2022},
  address = {Quezon City},
  institution = {Phillipine Statistics Authority}
}

@techreport{Azevedo2020,
  title = {Simulating the Potential Impacts of {{COVID-19}} School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes},
  author = {Azevedo, Jo{\~a}o Pedro and Hasan, Amer and Goldemberg, Diana and Aroob, Syedah and Koen Geven, Iqbal},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Policy Research Working Paper No. 9284},
  institution = {World Bank Group}
}

@article{Ballesteros2009,
  title = {Influenza {{A}} Gradual and Epochal Evolution: {{Insights}} from Simple Models},
  author = {Ballesteros, S{\'e}bastien and Vergu, Elisabeta and Cazelles, Bernard},
  year = {2009},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  volume = {4},
  number = {10},
  issn = {19326203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0007426},
  abstract = {The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a "continuous antigenic drift" scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial SIR model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial SIR model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial SIR model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level. {\copyright} 2009 Ballesteros et al.},
  pmid = {19841740}
}

@article{Barnett2023,
  title = {Epidemic Responses under Uncertainty},
  author = {Barnett, Michael and Buchak, Greg and Yannelis, Constantine},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {PNAS},
  volume = {120},
  number = {2},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.2208111120/-/DCSupplemental.Published}
}

@article{Barquera2020,
  title = {Obesity in {{Mexico}}: Rapid Epidemiological Transition and Food Industry Interference in Health Policies},
  author = {Barquera, Sim{\'o}n and Rivera, Juan A.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology},
  volume = {8},
  number = {9},
  pages = {746--747},
  issn = {22138595},
  doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30269-2},
  pmid = {32822599}
}

@techreport{Barrett2021,
  title = {After-Effects of the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: {{Prospects}} for Medium-Term Economic Damage},
  author = {Barrett, Philip and Das, Sonali and Magistretti, Giacomo and Pugacheva, Evgenia and Wingender, Philippe},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {IMF Working Papers},
  volume = {21},
  number = {203},
  pages = {1},
  institution = {International Monetary Fund},
  issn = {1018-5941},
  doi = {10.5089/9781513587905.001},
  abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe globalrecession with differential impacts within and acrosscountries. A key question facing policymakers is the extentof persistent damage (scarring) that may result fromthis crisis. This chapter examines the possible persistenteffects of the pandemic and the channels through whichthey may occur. History suggests that deep recessionsoften leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity.Importantly, financial instabilities---typically associatedwith worse scarring---have been largely avoided in thecurrent crisis so far. The concentration of the pandemic'sinitial impact on more highly contact-intensive servicesectors has generated lower sectoral spillovers than in mostprevious recessions, but its sheer size means that it stillrepresents a large shock to the broader economy. Expectedmedium-term output losses from the pandemic are sub-stantial, with output for the world in 2024 expected tobe about 3 percent lower than anticipated pre-pandemic.Losses are anticipated to be lower than after the globalfinancial crisis, assuming that the pandemic is broughtunder control globally by the end of 2022. The degree ofexpected scarring varies across countries, depending on thestructure of economies and the size of the policy response.Emerging market and developing economies are expectedto suffer more scarring than advanced economies. Tolimit scarring, policymakers should continue to providesupport to the most-affected sectors and workers while thepandemic is ongoing. Remedial policies for the setbackto human capital accumulation, measures to lift invest-ment, and initiatives to support reallocation (retraining,reskilling, and insolvency procedures) will be key toaddress long-term GDP losses and the rise in inequality.},
  keywords = {COVID-19,medium-term output,scarring}
}

@techreport{BarronRodriguez2020,
  title = {Remote Learning during the Global School Lockdown: Multi-Country Lessons},
  author = {Barron Rodriguez, Maria and Cobo, Cristobal and {Mu{\~n}oz-Najar}, Alberto and S{\'a}nchez Ciarrusta, I{\~n}aki},
  year = {2020},
  address = {Washington, DC},
  institution = {The World Bank}
}

@article{Bast2021,
  title = {Increased Risk of Hospitalisation and Death with the Delta Variant in the {{USA}}},
  author = {Bast, Elizabeth and Tang, Fei and Dahn, Jason and Palacio, Ana},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
  volume = {21},
  number = {12},
  pages = {1629--1630},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {14744457},
  doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00685-X},
  pmid = {34838221}
}

@article{Basto-Abreu2020,
  title = {Predicting Obesity Reduction after Implementing Warning Labels in {{Mexico}}: {{A}} Modeling Study},
  author = {{Basto-Abreu}, Ana and {Torres-Alvarez}, Rossana and {Reyes-S{\'a}nchez}, Francisco and {Gonz{\'a}lez-Morales}, Romina and {Canto-Osorio}, Francisco and Colchero, M. Arantxa and Barquera, Sim{\'o}n and Rivera, Juan A. and {Barrientos-Gutierrez}, Tonatiuh},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {PLoS Medicine},
  volume = {17},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1--14},
  issn = {15491676},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1003221},
  abstract = {Background In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an ``excess of'' warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age. Methods and findings Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5\% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0\% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999--2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7\%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US\$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight. Conclusions In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.},
  isbn = {1111111111},
  pmid = {32722682}
}

@article{basto-abreuNationallyRepresentativeSARSCoV2,
  title = {Nationally Representative {{SARS-CoV-2}} Antibody Prevalence Estimates after the First Epidemic Wave in {{Mexico}}},
  author = {{Basto-Abreu}, Ana and Carnalla, Martha and {Torres-Ibarra}, Leticia and {Romero-Mart{\'i}nez}, Mart{\'i}n and {Mart{\'i}nez-Barnetche}, Jes{\'u}s and {L{\'o}pez-Mart{\'i}nez}, Irma and {Aparicio-Antonio}, Rodrigo},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  number = {1}
}

@article{Batis2016,
  title = {First-{{Year Evaluation}} of {{Mexico}}'s {{Tax}} on {{Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods}}: {{An Observational Study}}},
  author = {Batis, Carolina and Rivera, Juan A. and Popkin, Barry M. and Taillie, Lindsey Smith},
  year = {2016},
  journal = {PLoS Medicine},
  volume = {13},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1--14},
  issn = {15491676},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002057},
  abstract = {Background: In an effort to prevent continued increases in obesity and diabetes, in January 2014, the Mexican government implemented an 8\% tax on nonessential foods with energy density {$\geq$}275 kcal/100 g and a peso-per-liter tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Limited rigorous evaluations of food taxes exist worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine changes in volume of taxed and untaxed packaged food purchases in response to these taxes in the entire sample and stratified by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods and Findings: This study uses data on household packaged food purchases representative of the Mexican urban population from The Nielsen Company's Mexico Consumer Panel Services (CPS). We included 6,248 households that participated in the Nielsen CPS in at least 2 mo during 2012--2014; average household follow-up was 32.7 mo. We analyzed the volume of purchases of taxed and untaxed foods from January 2012 to December 2014, using a longitudinal, fixed-effects model that adjusted for preexisting trends to test whether the observed post-tax trend was significantly different from the one expected based on the pre-tax trend. We controlled for household characteristics and contextual factors like minimum salary and unemployment rate. The mean volume of purchases of taxed foods in 2014 changed by -25 g (95\% confidence interval = -46, -11) per capita per month, or a 5.1\% change beyond what would have been expected based on pre-tax (2012--2013) trends, with no corresponding change in purchases of untaxed foods. Low SES households purchased on average 10.2\% less taxed foods than expected (-44 [--72, --16] g per capita per month); medium SES households purchased 5.8\% less taxed foods than expected (-28 [--46, --11] g per capita per month), whereas high SES households' purchases did not change. The main limitations of our findings are the inability to infer causality because the taxes were implemented at the national level (lack of control group), our sample is only representative of urban areas, we only have 2 y of data prior to the tax, and, as with any consumer panel survey, we did not capture all foods purchased by the household. Conclusions: Household purchases of nonessential energy-dense foods declined in the first year after the implementation of Mexico's SSB and nonessential foods taxes. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the taxes on overall energy intake, dietary quality, and food purchase patterns (see S1 Abstract in Spanish).},
  pmid = {27379797}
}

@article{Beale2022,
  title = {Workplace Contact Patterns in {{England}} during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: {{Analysis}} of the {{Virus Watch}} Prospective Cohort Study},
  author = {Beale, Sarah and Hoskins, Susan and Byrne, Thomas and Fong, Wing Lam Erica and Fragaszy, Ellen and Geismar, Cyril and Kovar, Jana and Navaratnam, Annalan M.D. and Nguyen, Vincent and Patel, Parth and Yavlinsky, Alexei and Johnson, Anne M. and Van Tongeren, Martie and Aldridge, Robert W. and Hayward, Andrew},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Europe},
  volume = {16},
  pages = {100352},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {26667762},
  doi = {10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100352},
  abstract = {Background: Workplaces are an important potential source of SARS-CoV-2 exposure; however, investigation into workplace contact patterns is lacking. This study aimed to investigate how workplace attendance and features of contact varied between occupations across the COVID-19 pandemic in England. Methods: Data were obtained from electronic contact diaries (November 2020-November 2021) submitted by employed/self-employed prospective cohort study participants (n=4,616). We used mixed models to investigate the effects of occupation and time for: workplace attendance, number of people sharing workspace, time spent sharing workspace, number of close contacts, and usage of face coverings. Findings: Workplace attendance and contact patterns varied across occupations and time. The predicted probability of intense space sharing during the day was highest for healthcare (78\% [95\% CI: 75--81\%]) and education workers (64\% [59\%--69\%]), who also had the highest probabilities for larger numbers of close contacts (36\% [32\%--40\%] and 38\% [33\%--43\%] respectively). Education workers also demonstrated relatively low predicted probability (51\% [44\%--57\%]) of wearing a face covering during close contact. Across all occupational groups, workspace sharing and close contact increased and usage of face coverings decreased during phases of less stringent restrictions. Interpretation: Major variations in workplace contact patterns and mask use likely contribute to differential COVID-19 risk. Patterns of variation by occupation and restriction phase may inform interventions for future waves of COVID-19 or other respiratory epidemics. Across occupations, increasing workplace contact and reduced face covering usage is concerning given ongoing high levels of community transmission and emergence of variants. Funding: Medical Research Council; HM Government; Wellcome Trust},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Epidemiology,Occupation,Public health}
}

@article{Beraud2015,
  title = {The {{French}} Connection: {{The}} First Large Population-Based Contact Survey in {{France}} Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases},
  author = {B{\'e}raud, Guillaume and Kazmercziak, Sabine and Beutels, Philippe and {Levy-Bruhl}, Daniel and Lenne, Xavier and Mielcarek, Nathalie and Yazdanpanah, Yazdan and Bo{\"e}lle, Pierre Yves and Hens, Niel and Dervaux, Benoit},
  year = {2015},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  volume = {10},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1--22},
  issn = {19326203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0133203},
  pmid = {26176549}
}

@article{Betthauser2023,
  title = {A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Evidence on Learning during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic},
  author = {Betth{\"a}user, Bastian A and {Bach-Mortensen}, Anders M and Engzell, Per},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  volume = {7},
  number = {March},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01506-4}
}

@article{Birrell2021,
  title = {Real-Time Nowcasting and Forecasting of {{COVID-19}} Dynamics in {{England}}: The First Wave},
  author = {Birrell, Paul and Blake, Joshua and Van Leeuwen, Edwin and Gent, Nick and De Angelis, Daniela},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B},
  volume = {376},
  isbn = {0000000175},
  keywords = {epidemiology,health and disease and}
}

@techreport{Bloom2020,
  title = {Modern Infectious Diseases: {{Macroeconomic}} Impacts and Policy Responses},
  author = {Bloom, David E. and Kuhn, Michael and Prettner, Klaus},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {NBER Working Paper No. 27757},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  issn = {1556-5068},
  doi = {10.3386/W27757},
  keywords = {and Growth,and Informal Economy,and Poverty,and Welfare,Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium M,Consumption,COVID-19,economic burden of disease,Economic Development,economic epidemiology,economic growth,Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity,Education,epidemics,General,General Aggregative Models,General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium,general equilibrium macroeconomic models,General Welfare,Government Policy,Health,Health and Economic Development,Health Behavior,health policy,HIV/AIDS,Household Behavior and Family Economics,human capital,inequality,infectious disease,influenza,Innovation,Intertemporal Household Choice,Investment,Labor Markets,Life Cycle Models and Saving,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,malaria,Microeconomics,pandemics,Production,Public Health,Regulation,Saving,SIR Model,Technological Change,tuberculosis,welfare,Welfare,Well-Being}
}

@article{Bloom2021,
  title = {The Societal Value of Vaccination in the Age of {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {Bloom, David E. and Cadarette, Daniel and Ferranna, Maddalena},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {American Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {111},
  number = {6},
  issn = {15410048},
  doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2020.306114},
  abstract = {In recent years, academics and policymakers have increasingly recognized that the full societal value of vaccination encompasses broad health, economic, and social benefits beyond avoided morbidity and mortality due to infection by the targeted pathogen and limited health care costs. Nevertheless, standard economic evaluations of vaccines continue to focus on a relatively narrow set of health-centric benefits, with consequences for vaccination policies and public investments.The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates in stark terms the multiplicity and magnitude of harms that infectious diseases may inflict on society. COVID-19 has overtaxed health systems, disrupted routine immunization programs, forced school and workplace closures, impeded the operation of international supply chains, suppressed aggregate demand, and exacerbated existing social inequities.The obvious nature of the pandemic's broad effects could conceivably convince more policymakers to identify and account for the full societal impacts of infectious disease when evaluating the potential benefits of vaccination. Such a shift could make a big difference in how we allocate societal resources in the service of population health and in how much we stand to gain from that spending.},
  pmid = {33856880}
}

@article{Blundell2020,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} and {{Inequalities}}},
  author = {Blundell, Richard and Costa Dias, Monica and Joyce, Robert and Xu, Xiaowei},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Fiscal Studies},
  volume = {41},
  number = {2},
  pages = {291--319},
  issn = {14755890},
  doi = {10.1111/1475-5890.12232},
  keywords = {COVID-19,employment,ethnicity,health,inequality}
}

@article{Blundell2022,
  title = {Inequality and the {{COVID-19}} Crisis in the {{United Kingdom}}},
  author = {Blundell, Richard and Costa Dias, Monica and Cribb, Jonathan and Joyce, Robert and Waters, Tom and Wernham, Thomas and Xu, Xiaowei},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Annual Review of Economics},
  volume = {14},
  pages = {607--636},
  issn = {19411391},
  doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-030252},
  keywords = {covid-19 pandemic,education,inequality,living standards,wealth}
}

@misc{booster22,
  title = {{{https://en.antaranews.com/news/203941/booster-vaccinations-to-commence-on-jan-1-deputy-minister}}}
}

@article{Boppart2022,
  title = {Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment of Vaccination},
  author = {Boppart, Timo and Harmenberg, Karl and Krusell, Per and Olsson, Jonna},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control},
  volume = {140},
  number = {851891},
  pages = {104308},
  publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
  issn = {01651889},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104308}
}

@article{Brainard2022,
  title = {Was {{Alpha}} Deadlier than Wild-Type {{COVID}}? {{Analysis}} in Rural {{England}}},
  author = {Brainard, Julii and Grossi Sampedro, Carlota Maria and Sweeting, Anna and Fordham, Ric},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Infection},
  volume = {50},
  number = {5},
  pages = {1171--1178},
  publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
  issn = {14390973},
  doi = {10.1007/s15010-022-01787-x},
  abstract = {Background: It is useful to document whether each newly dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern was more or less dangerous than preceding dominant variant(s). We assessed if the emergence of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant in autumn 2020 could be linked to higher case fatality rates, compared to original wild-type COVID-19, subgrouping by age band, sex, deprivation or month of diagnosis as potential risk factors. Methods: Observational study and secondary analysis were conducted of SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed due to medical need or occupational exposure in an administrative area of Eastern England, UK (base population 1 million), who first tested positive in the period 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine relationships of age group, sex, deprivation group and month of diagnosis with case fatality rates within 28~days of diagnosis. Marginal probabilities for risk of dying were calculated separately for the first two main `wave' periods of the English pandemic. Results: Older age and male sex consistently raised the risk of mortality in both wave periods. Higher deprivation was linked to mortality risk in the first wave period, but not in the second wave. Mortality decreased over time during the first wave period, but slightly increased over time during the second wave. Cases were younger in the second wave, and median age of the deceased varied little between waves. Interpretation: The Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 did not lead to higher mortality rates for any age, deprivation or sex group, compared to case fatality rates in the early part of the pandemic period.},
  isbn = {1501002201},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Deprivation,Disease outbreak,Epidemiology,Mortality,Risk factors}
}

@book{Briggs2006,
  title = {Decision {{Modelling}} for {{Health Economic Evaluation}}},
  author = {Briggs, Andrew and Claxton, Karl and Sculpher, Mark},
  year = {2006},
  publisher = {OUP UK}
}

@article{Brooks-Pollock2021,
  title = {Modelling That Shaped the Early {{COVID-19}} Pandemic Response in the {{UK}}},
  author = {{Brooks-Pollock}, Ellen and Danon, Leon and Jombart, Thibaut and Pellis, Lorenzo},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B},
  volume = {376},
  keywords = {epidemiology,health and disease and}
}

@article{Brouwer2005,
  title = {Need for Differential Discounting of Costs and Health Effects in Cost Effectiveness Analyses},
  author = {Brouwer, Werner B.F. and Niessen, Louis W. and Postma, Maarten J. and Rutten, Frans F.H.},
  year = {2005},
  journal = {British Medical Journal},
  volume = {331},
  number = {7514},
  pages = {446--448},
  issn = {09598146},
  doi = {10.1136/bmj.331.7514.446},
  abstract = {New National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines change the discount rates for costs and effects from 6\% and 1.5\% respectively to 3.5\% for both. This change gives a lower weight to future health effects and may worsen the cost effectiveness ratio, especially for preventive interventions. Differential discounting is more appropriate when non-monetary outcomes like QALYs are used NICE should return to a 1.5\% discount rate for effects.},
  pmid = {16110075}
}

@article{Burman1980,
  title = {Seasonal {{Adjustment}} by {{Signal Extraction}}},
  author = {Burman, J P},
  year = {1980},
  journal = {Royal Statistical Society},
  volume = {143},
  number = {3},
  pages = {321--337},
  keywords = {annual revisions,arima model,autocovariance generating function,backcast,extreme values,filter,forecast,fractions,harmonic function,irregular,linear,partial,residual seasonality,seasonal adjustment,signal extraction,spectrum,transient,trend}
}

@article{Byambasuren2020,
  title = {Estimating the Extent of Asymptomatic {{COVID-19}} and Its Potential for Community Transmission: {{Systematic}} Review and Meta-Analysis},
  author = {Byambasuren, Oyungerel and Cardona, Magnolia and Bell, Katy and Clark, Justin and McLaws, Mary Louise and Glasziou, Paul},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada},
  volume = {5},
  number = {4},
  pages = {223--234},
  issn = {23710888},
  doi = {10.3138/jammi-2020-0030},
  keywords = {Emerging or re-emerging diseases,Epidemiology,Evidence-based medicine,Public health policy}
}

@article{Caldwell2021,
  title = {Understanding {{COVID-19}} Dynamics and the Effects of Interventions in the {{Philippines}}: {{A}} Mathematical Modelling Study},
  author = {Caldwell, Jamie M. and {de Lara-Tuprio}, Elvira and Teng, Timothy Robin and Estuar, Maria Regina Justina E. and Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R. and Abayawardana, Milinda and Leong, Robert Neil F. and Gray, Richard T. and Wood, James G. and Le, Linh Vi and McBryde, Emma S. and Ragonnet, Romain and Trauer, James M.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific},
  volume = {14},
  pages = {100211},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {26666065},
  doi = {10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211},
  keywords = {COVID-19,LMIC,Minimum Health Standards policy,Philippines,SEIR}
}

@misc{Camacho-Garcia-Formenti2018,
  title = {Bw: {{Dynamic Body Weight Models}} for {{Children}} and {{Adults}}. {{R}} Package Version 1.0.0},
  author = {{Camacho-Garcia-Formenti}, Dalia and {Zepeda-Tello}, Rodrigo},
  year = {2018}
}

@article{carletonValuingGlobalMortality2022,
  title = {Valuing the {{Global Mortality Consequences}} of {{Climate Change Accounting}} for {{Adaptation Costs}} and {{Benefits}}},
  author = {Carleton, Tamma and Jina, Amir and Delgado, Michael and Greenstone, Michael and Houser, Trevor and Hsiang, Solomon and Hultgren, Andrew and Kopp, Robert E and McCusker, Kelly E and Nath, Ishan and Rising, James and Rode, Ashwin and Seo, Hee Kwon and Viaene, Arvid and Yuan, Jiacan and Zhang, Alice Tianbo},
  year = {2022},
  month = sep,
  journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  volume = {137},
  number = {4},
  pages = {2037--2105},
  issn = {0033-5533, 1531-4650},
  doi = {10.1093/qje/qjac020},
  urldate = {2024-08-29},
  copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/Y4NENX45/Carleton et al. - 2022 - Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Clima.pdf}
}

@article{Carrat2010,
  title = {Planning for the next Influenza {{H1N1}} Season: {{A}} Modelling Study},
  author = {Carrat, Fabrice and Pelat, Camille and {Levy-Bruhl}, Daniel and Bonmarin, Isabelle and Lapidus, Nathanael},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {BMC Infectious Diseases},
  volume = {10},
  pages = {1--9},
  issn = {14712334},
  doi = {10.1186/1471-2334-10-301},
  abstract = {Background: The level of herd immunity before and after the first 2009 pandemic season is not precisely known, and predicting the shape of the next pandemic H1N1 season is a difficult challenge.Methods: This was a modelling study based on data on medical visits for influenza-like illness collected by the French General Practitioner Sentinel network, as well as pandemic H1N1 vaccination coverage rates, and an individual-centred model devoted to influenza. We estimated infection attack rates during the first 2009 pandemic H1N1 season in France, and the rates of pre- and post-exposure immunity. We then simulated various scenarios in which a pandemic influenza H1N1 virus would be reintroduced into a population with varying levels of protective cross-immunity, and considered the impact of extending influenza vaccination.Results: During the first pandemic season in France, the proportion of infected persons was 18.1\% overall, 38.3\% among children, 14.8\% among younger adults and 1.6\% among the elderly. The rates of pre-exposure immunity required to fit data collected during the first pandemic season were 36\% in younger adults and 85\% in the elderly. We estimated that the rate of post-exposure immunity was 57.3\% (95\% Confidence Interval (95\%CI) 49.6\%-65.0\%) overall, 44.6\% (95\%CI 35.5\%-53.6\%) in children, 53.8\% (95\%CI 44.5\%-63.1\%) in younger adults, and 87.4\% (95\%CI 82.0\%-92.8\%) in the elderly.The shape of a second season would depend on the degree of persistent protective cross-immunity to descendants of the 2009 H1N1 viruses. A cross-protection rate of 70\% would imply that only a small proportion of the population would be affected. With a cross-protection rate of 50\%, the second season would have a disease burden similar to the first, while vaccination of 50\% of the entire population, in addition to the population vaccinated during the first pandemic season, would halve this burden. With a cross-protection rate of 30\%, the second season could be more substantial, and vaccination would not provide a significant benefit.Conclusions: These model-based findings should help to prepare for a second pandemic season, and highlight the need for studies of the different components of immune protection. {\copyright} 2010 Carrat et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.},
  pmid = {20964814}
}

@article{chapmanAnalysisIndividualsHigh2021,
  title = {Analysis of Individuals with a High Number of Contacts in the {{CoMix}} Study},
  author = {Chapman, Lloyd and Kucharski, Adam and Munday, James and Gimma, Amy and Wong, Kerry and Edmunds, John},
  year = {2021}
}

@book{Charlton2020,
  title = {{{NICE}} and {{Fair}}? {{Health Technology Assessment Policy Under}} the {{UK}}'s {{National Institute}} for {{Health}} and {{Care Excellence}}, 1999--2018},
  author = {Charlton, Victoria},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Health Care Analysis},
  volume = {28},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {15733394},
  doi = {10.1007/s10728-019-00381-x},
  abstract = {The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is responsible for conducting health technology assessment (HTA) on behalf of the National Health Service (NHS). In seeking to justify its recommendations to the NHS about which technologies to fund, NICE claims to adopt two complementary ethical frameworks, one procedural---accountability for reasonableness (AfR)---and one substantive---an `ethics of opportunity costs' (EOC) that rests primarily on the notion of allocative efficiency. This study is the first to empirically examine normative changes to NICE's approach and to analyse whether these enhance or diminish the fairness of its decision-making, as judged against these frameworks. It finds that increasing formalisation of NICE's approach and a weakening of the burden of proof laid on technologies undergoing HTA have together undermined its commitment to EOC. This implies a loss of allocative efficiency and a shift in the balance of how the interests of different NHS users are served, in favour of those who benefit directly from NICE's recommendations. These changes also weaken NICE's commitment to AfR by diminishing the publicity of its decision-making and by encouraging the adoption of rationales that cannot easily be shown to meet the relevance condition. This signals a need for either substantial reform of NICE's approach, or more accurate communication of the ethical reasoning on which it is based. The study also highlights the need for further empirical work to explore the impact of these policy changes on NICE's practice of HTA and to better understand how and why they have come about.},
  isbn = {0-12-345678-9},
  pmid = {31325000},
  keywords = {Fairness,Health policy,Health technology assessment,Healthcare priority-setting,Justice,National Institute for Health and Care Excellence,Social values}
}

@article{Cheng2022,
  title = {Clinical Manifestations of {{COVID-19}} Differ by Age and Obesity Status},
  author = {Cheng, Wesley A. and Turner, Lauren and Marentes Ruiz, Carolyn J. and Tanaka, Melissa L. and {Congrave-Wilson}, Zion and Lee, Yesun and Jumarang, Jaycee and Perez, Stephanie and Peralta, Ariana and Pannaraj, Pia S.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses},
  volume = {16},
  pages = {255--264},
  issn = {17502659},
  doi = {10.1111/irv.12918},
  abstract = {Background: Age and obesity status are associated with severe outcomes among hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. It remains unclear whether age and obesity are risk factors for milder COVID-19 illness. Methods: We prospectively enrolled SARS-CoV-2-exposed individuals. Participants recorded symptoms for 28 days and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and serology. Type, number, and duration of symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 laboratory parameters were compared by age and obesity status. Results: Of 552 individuals enrolled from June 2020 to January 2021, 470 (85.1\%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 including 261 (55.5\%) adults {$\geq$}18 years, 61 (13.0\%) adolescents 12--17 years, and 148 (31.5\%) children {$<$}12 years. Children had fewer symptoms (median 2 vs. 3, p {$<$} 0.001) lasting fewer days (median 5 vs. 7, p {$<$} 0.001) compared with adolescents/adults. Body mass index of 300 (63.8\%) individuals classified with overweight or obesity (OWOB). Individuals with OWOB suffered more symptoms compared with individuals without OWOB (median 3 vs. 2, p = 0.037), including more cough and shortness of breath (p = 0.023 and 0.026, respectively). Adolescents with OWOB were more likely to be symptomatic (66.7\% vs. 34.2\%, p = 0.008) and have longer respiratory symptoms (median 7 vs. 4 days, p = 0.049) compared with adolescents without OWOB. Lower RT-PCR Ct values were found in children and symptomatic individuals compared with adolescent and adults and asymptomatic individuals, respectively (p = 0.001 and 0.022). Conclusions: Adolescents and adults with OWOB experience more respiratory symptoms from COVID-19 despite similar viral loads. These findings underscore the importance of vaccinating individuals with OWOB.},
  pmid = {34668322},
  keywords = {adolescents,children,COVID-19,obesity,SARS-CoV-2}
}

@misc{children6,
  title = {{{https://en.tempo.co/read/1537873/indonesia-to-start-vaccine-rollouts-for-children-6-to-11}}}
}

@techreport{Cho2022,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} and Social Assistance in the {{Philippines}}: {{Lessons}} for Future Resilience},
  author = {Cho, Yoonyoung and Johnson, Doug},
  year = {2022},
  address = {Taguig City},
  institution = {The World Bank},
  isbn = {6324652505}
}

@misc{christopherjacksonVoiExpectedValue2023,
  title = {Voi: {{Expected Value}} of {{Information}}},
  author = {{Christopher Jackson} and {Anna Heath}},
  year = {2023}
}

@misc{CIA2022,
  title = {The {{World Factbook}}: {{County Comparison}} - {{Obesity}} - {{Adult Prevalence}}},
  author = {{CIA}},
  year = {2022}
}

@article{Clark2021,
  title = {The Fall in Income Inequality during {{COVID-19}} in Four {{European}} Countries},
  author = {Clark, Andrew E. and D'Ambrosio, Conchita and Lepinteur, Anthony},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of Economic Inequality},
  volume = {19},
  number = {3},
  pages = {489--507},
  publisher = {The Journal of Economic Inequality},
  issn = {15738701},
  doi = {10.1007/s10888-021-09499-2},
  isbn = {1088802109},
  keywords = {COME-HERE,COVID-19,Income inequality}
}

@article{Cobb1928,
  title = {Theory of Production},
  author = {Cobb, Charles W and Douglas, Paul H},
  year = {1928},
  journal = {American Economic Association},
  pages = {139--165},
  issn = {21978867},
  doi = {10.1007/978-4-431-54433-3_9}
}

@article{Colchero2021,
  title = {The {{Covid-19}} Cascade of Care in {{Mexico}}: {{Symptoms}}, Positivity, and Health Care Seeking Decisions amid the Pandemic},
  author = {Colchero, M. Arantxa and {Moreno-Aguilar}, Luis Alberto and {Bautista-Arredondo}, Sergio},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Salud Publica de Mexico},
  volume = {63},
  pages = {734--742},
  issn = {16067916},
  doi = {10.21149/12822},
  pmid = {35099913},
  keywords = {Covid-19,delivery of health care,Mexico,private sector,public health services}
}

@article{Cutler2020,
  title = {The {{COVID-19}} Pandemic and the \$16 Trillion Virus},
  author = {Cutler, David M. and Summers, Lawrence H.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {JAMA},
  volume = {324},
  number = {15},
  issn = {1945774X},
  doi = {10.1257/pol.20170046}
}

@article{Dai2020,
  title = {The Global Burden of Disease Attributable to High Body Mass Index in 195 Countries and Territories, 1990--2017: {{An}} Analysis of the {{Global Burden}} of {{Disease Study}}},
  author = {Dai, Haijiang and Alsalhe, Tariq A. and Chalghaf, Nasr and Ricc{\`o}, Matteo and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Wu, Jianhong},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {PLoS Medicine},
  volume = {17},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1--19},
  issn = {15491676},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1003198},
  abstract = {Background Obesity represents an urgent problem that needs to be properly addressed, especially among children. Public and global health policy- and decision-makers need timely, reliable quantitative information to develop effective interventions aimed at counteracting the burden generated by high body mass index (BMI). Few studies have assessed the high-BMI-related burden on a global scale. Methods and findings Following the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017, the global deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI were analyzed by age, sex, year, and geographical location and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). All causes of death and DALYs estimated in GBD 2017 were organized into 4 hierarchical levels: level 1 contained 3 broad cause groupings, level 2 included more specific categories within the level 1 groupings, level 3 comprised more detailed causes within the level 2 categories, and level 4 included sub-causes of some level 3 causes. From 1990 to 2017, the global deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI have more than doubled for both females and males. However, during the study period, the age-standardized rate of high-BMI-related deaths remained stable for females and only increased by 14.5\% for males, and the age-standardized rate of high-BMI-related DALYs only increased by 12.7\% for females and 26.8\% for males. In 2017, the 6 leading GBD level 3 causes of high-BMI-related DALYs were ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, hypertensive heart disease, and low back pain. For most GBD level 3 causes of high-BMI-related DALYs, high-income North America had the highest attributable proportions of age-standardized DALYs due to high BMI among the 21 GBD regions in both sexes, whereas the lowest attributable proportions were observed in high-income Asia Pacific for females and in eastern sub-Saharan Africa for males. The association between SDI and high-BMI-related DALYs suggested that the lowest age-standardized DALY rates were found in countries in the low-SDI quintile and high-SDI quintile in 2017, and from 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized DALY rates tended to increase in regions with the lowest SDI, but declined in regions with the highest SDI, with the exception of high-income North America. The study's main limitations included the use of information collected from some self-reported data, the employment of cutoff values that may not be adequate for all populations and groups at risk, and the use of a metric that cannot distinguish between lean and fat mass. Conclusions In this study, we observed that the number of global deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI has substantially increased between 1990 and 2017. Successful population-wide initiatives targeting high BMI may mitigate the burden of a wide range of diseases. Given the large variations in high-BMI-related burden of disease by SDI, future strategies to prevent and reduce the burden should be developed and implemented based on country-specific development status.},
  isbn = {1111111111},
  pmid = {32722671}
}

@article{Damuri2021,
  title = {Tracking the Ups and Downs in {{Indonesia}}'s Economic Activity {{During COVID-19}} Using Mobility Index: {{Evidence}} from Provinces in {{Java}} and {{Bali}}},
  author = {Damuri, Yose Rizal and Tyas, Prabaning and Aswicahyono, Haryo and Priyadi, Lionel and Kusumawardhani, Stella and Yazid, Ega Kurnia},
  year = {2021},
  number = {385},
  keywords = {COVID-19,GDP,Indonesia,Labour and Mobility,Nowcasting}
}

@article{dangerfield2022,
  title = {Challenges of Integrating Economics into Epidemiological Analysis of and Policy Responses to Emerging Infectious Diseases},
  author = {Dangerfield, Ciara and Fenichel, Eli P. and Finnoff, David and Hanley, Nick and Heap, Shaun Hargreaves and Shogren, Jason F. and Toxvaerd, Flavio},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Epidemics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  issn = {2213-3437},
  doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100585},
  isbn = {9196507926}
}

@article{Davis2021,
  title = {Cryptic Transmission of {{SARS-CoV-2}} and the First {{COVID-19}} Wave},
  author = {Davis, Jessica T and Chinazzi, Matteo and Perra, Nicola and Mu, Kunpeng and Piontti, Ana Pastore Y and Ajelli, Marco and Dean, Natalie E and Gioannini, Corrado and Litvinova, Maria and Merler, Stefano and Rossi, Luca and Sun, Kaiyuan and Xiong, Xinyue and Halloran, M Elizabeth and Longini, Ira M and Viboud, C{\'e}cile and Vespignani, Alessandro},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = {600},
  number = {127},
  eprint = {33791745},
  eprinttype = {pubmed},
  doi = {10.1101/2021.03.24.21254199},
  pmid = {33791745}
}

@article{decreeMexicoStateAffairs2020,
  title = {Mexico {{State}} of {{Affairs}} -- {{Closure}} of {{Non-Essential Businesses}}},
  author = {Decree, Force Majeure},
  year = {2020}
}

@article{DeLara-Tuprio2022,
  title = {Economic Losses from {{COVID-19}} Cases in the {{Philippines}}: A Dynamic Model of Health and Economic Policy Trade-Offs},
  author = {{de Lara-Tuprio}, Elvira P. and Estuar, Maria Regina Justina E. and Sescon, Joselito T. and Lubangco, Cymon Kayle and Castillo, Rolly Czar Joseph T. and Teng, Timothy Robin Y. and Tamayo, Lenard Paulo V. and Macalalag, Jay Michael R. and Vedeja, Gerome M.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Humanities and Social Sciences Communications},
  volume = {9},
  number = {111},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {26629992},
  doi = {10.1057/s41599-022-01125-4}
}

@article{Denford2021,
  title = {Engagement {{With Daily Testing Instead}} of {{Self-Isolating}} in {{Contacts}} of {{Confirmed Cases}} of {{SARS-CoV-2}}: {{A Qualitative Analysis}}},
  author = {Martin, Alex F. and Denford, Sarah and Love, Nicola and Ready, Derren and Oliver, Isabel and Aml{\^o}t, Richard and Rubin, G. James and Yardley, Lucy},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {BMJ Public Health},
  volume = {21},
  publisher = {BMC Public Health},
  issn = {22962565},
  doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2021.714041},
  pmid = {34414160},
  keywords = {COVID-19,infection control,lateral flow device,qualitative,test}
}

@techreport{Development2020,
  title = {Social {{Amelioration Program}} - {{Emergency Subsidy Program}} ({{SAP-ESP}})},
  author = {{Department of Social Welfare and Development}},
  year = {2020}
}

@article{Dey-chowdhury2020,
  title = {Coronavirus and the Effects on {{UK GDP}} ({{May}} 6, 2020)},
  author = {{Dey-chowdhury}, Sumit},
  year = {2020},
  pages = {1--14}
}

@article{Dietz2015,
  title = {Discounting Disentangled},
  author = {Drupp, Moritz and Freeman, Mark and Groom, Ben and Nesje, Frikk},
  year = {2015},
  number = {215}
}

@misc{DireccionGeneraldeEpidemiologia2022,
  title = {Datos {{Abiertos Bases Hist{\'o}ricas}}},
  author = {{Direcci{\'o}n General de Epidemiolog{\'i}a}},
  year = {2022},
  publisher = {Secretar{\'i}a de Salud}
}

@article{Djaafara2021,
  title = {Using Syndromic Measures of Mortality to Capture the Dynamics of {{COVID-19}} in {{Java}}, {{Indonesia}}, in the Context of Vaccination Rollout},
  author = {Djaafara, Bimandra A. and Whittaker, Charles and Watson, Oliver J. and Verity, Robert and Brazeau, Nicholas F. and {Widyastuti} and Oktavia, Dwi and Adrian, Verry and Salama, Ngabila and Bhatia, Sangeeta and Nouvellet, Pierre and {Sherrard-Smith}, Ellie and Churcher, Thomas S. and Surendra, Henry and Lina, Rosa N. and Ekawati, Lenny L. and Lestari, Karina D. and Andrianto, Adhi and Thwaites, Guy and Baird, J. Kevin and Ghani, Azra C. and Elyazar, Iqbal R.F. and Walker, Patrick G.T.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {BMC Medicine},
  volume = {19},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--13},
  publisher = {BMC Medicine},
  issn = {17417015},
  doi = {10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2},
  abstract = {Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.},
  pmid = {34144715},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Indonesia,Modelling,Non-pharmaceutical interventions,Surveillance,Vaccinations}
}

@techreport{Doohan2022,
  title = {The Economic Benefits of Preparing for the next Pandemic: {{Select}} Case Studies},
  author = {Doohan, Patrick and Johnson, Rob and Morgenstern, Christian and Haw, David J. and Forchini, Giovanni and Smith, Peter C. and Hauck, Katharina},
  year = {2022},
  address = {London},
  institution = {Imperial College London}
}

@article{du2018,
  title = {Evolution-Informed Forecasting of Seasonal Influenza {{A}} ({{H3N2}})},
  author = {Du, Xiangjun and King, Aaron A. and Woods, Robert J. and Pascual, Mercedes},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Sci Transl Med},
  volume = {9},
  number = {413},
  doi = {10.1126/scitranslmed.aan5325.Evolution-informed},
  abstract = {环境中砷与铬暴露对于儿童肾功能的影响},
  isbn = {3902264330}
}

@article{Dyer2021,
  title = {Covid-19: {{Countries}} Are Learning What Others Paid for Vaccines},
  author = {Dyer, Owen},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {BMJ},
  volume = {372},
  number = {281},
  issn = {17561833},
  doi = {10.1136/bmj.n281},
  pmid = {33514535}
}

@misc{EdouardMathieu2020,
  title = {Our {{World}} in {{Data}}: {{Coronavirus Pandemic}} ({{COVID-19}})},
  author = {{Edouard Mathieu} and Ritchie, Hannah and {Rod{\'e}s-Guirao}, Lucas and Appel, Cameron and Giattino, Charlie and Hasell, Joe and Macdonald, Bobbie and Dattani, Saloni and Beltekian, Diana and {Ortiz-Ospina}, Esteban and Roser, Max},
  year = {2020},
  howpublished = {https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus}
}

@article{Eichenbaum2021,
  title = {The {{Macroeconomics}} of {{Epidemics}}},
  author = {Eichenbaum, Martin S. and Rebelo, Sergio and Trabandt, Mathias},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Review of Financial Studies},
  volume = {34},
  number = {11},
  pages = {5149--5187},
  issn = {14657368},
  doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhab040},
  abstract = {We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people cut back on consumption and work to reduce the chances of being infected. These decisions reduce the severity of the epidemic but exacerbate the size of the associated recession. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark model, the best simple containment policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly half a million lives in the United States.},
  keywords = {E1,H0,I1}
}

@article{Eisenberg2009,
  title = {The {{B}} . {{E}} . {{Journal}} of {{Economic Analysis}} \& {{Policy Contributions College College}} {$\ast$}},
  author = {Eisenberg, Daniel and Golberstein, Ezra and Hunt, Justin B},
  year = {2009},
  journal = {The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis \& Policy},
  volume = {9},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--38},
  keywords = {externality vaccination public health epidemic}
}

@article{Engzell2021,
  title = {Learning Loss Due to School Closures during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic},
  author = {Engzell, Per and Frey, Arun and Verhagen, Mark D.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume = {118},
  number = {17},
  issn = {10916490},
  doi = {10.1073/PNAS.2022376118},
  pmid = {33827987},
  keywords = {Covid-19,Digital divide,Learning loss,School closures,Social inequality}
}

@techreport{Ensanut2018,
  title = {Encuesta {{Nacional}} de {{Salud}} y {{Nutric{\'i}on}} 2018: Presentac{\'i}on de Resultados. {{Available}} from: {{https://ensanut.insp.mx/encuestas/ensan}} Ut2018/Doctos/Informes/Ensanut\_2018\_presentacion\_resultados.Pdf},
  author = {{Secretar{\'i}a de Salud}},
  year = {2018},
  institution = {Instituto Nacional de Salud P{\'u}blica, Instituto Nacional de Estad{\'i}stica y Geograf{\'i}a}
}

@misc{Enterprise2019,
  title = {Global {{Burden}} of {{Disease Study}} 2019 ({{GBD}} 2019) {{Population Estimates}} 1950-2019},
  author = {{Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation}},
  year = {2019}
}

@article{ExcessMortalityCollaborators2022,
  title = {Estimating Excess Mortality Due to the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of {{COVID-19-related}} Mortality, 2020--21},
  author = {{COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators}},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Lancet},
  volume = {399},
  pages = {1513--1536},
  doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3}
}

@article{Experiments2008,
  title = {Discounting and Decision Making in the Economic Evaluation of Healthcare Technologies},
  author = {Claxton, Karl and Paulden, Mike and Gravelle, Hugh and Brouwer, Werner and Culyer, Anthony J},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {Health Economics},
  volume = {20},
  doi = {10.1002/hec},
  abstract = {In 2004, California became the first state to implement statewide minimum nurse-to-patient ratios in general hospitals. In spite of years of work to establish statewide staffing regulations, there is little evidence that the law was effective in attracting more nurses to the hospital workforce or improving patient outcomes. This paper examines the effects of this legislation on employment and wages of registered nurses. By using annual financial data from California hospitals, I show that nurse-to-patient ratios in medical/surgical units increased substantially following the staffing mandate. However, survey data from two nationally representative datasets indicate that the law had no effect on the aggregate number of registered nurses or the hours they worked in California hospitals, and at most a modest effect on wages. My findings suggest that offsetting changes in labor demand due to hospital closures, combined with reclassification of workers within hospitals, and mitigated the employment effects of California's staffing regulation. This paper cautions that California's experience with minimum nurse staffing legislation may not be generalizable to states considering similar policies in very different hospital markets. Copyright {\copyright} 2013 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd. Copyright {\copyright} 2013 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/INL5YKPL/Claxton et al. - 2011 - Discounting and decision making in the economic ev.pdf}
}

@article{Eyre2022,
  title = {Effect of {{Covid-19}} Vaccination on Transmission of {{Alpha}} and {{Delta}} Variants},
  author = {Eyre, David W and Taylor, Donald and Purver, Mark and Chapman, David and Fowler, Tom and Pouwels, Koen B and Walker, A Sarah and Peto, Tim E A},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The New England Journal of Medicine},
  eprint = {34986294},
  eprinttype = {pubmed},
  pages = {1--13},
  issn = {1533-4406},
  doi = {10.1056/NEJMoa2116597},
  abstract = {BACKGROUND Before the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from vaccinated persons who became infected, potentially by reducing viral loads. Although vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons who are infected with the delta variant call into question the degree to which vaccination prevents transmission. METHODS We used contact-testing data from England to perform a retrospective observational cohort study involving adult contacts of SARS-CoV-2-infected adult index patients. We used multivariable Poisson regression to investigate associations between transmission and the vaccination status of index patients and contacts and to determine how these associations varied with the B.1.1.7 (alpha) and delta variants and time since the second vaccination. RESULTS Among 146,243 tested contacts of 108,498 index patients, 54,667 (37\%) had positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) tests. In vaccinated index patients who became infected with the alpha variant, two vaccinations with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (also known as AZD1222), as compared with no vaccination, were independently associated with reduced PCR positivity in contacts (adjusted rate ratio with BNT162b2, 0.32; 95\% confidence interval [CI], 0.21 to 0.48; and with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 0.48; 95\% CI, 0.30 to 0.78). Vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the delta variant were smaller than those with the alpha variant, and reductions in transmission of the delta variant after two BNT162b2 vaccinations were greater (adjusted rate ratio for the comparison with no vaccination, 0.50; 95\% CI, 0.39 to 0.65) than after two ChAdOx1 vaccinations (adjusted rate ratio, 0.76; 95\% CI, 0.70 to 0.82). Variation in cycle-threshold (Ct) values (indicative of viral load) in index patients explained 7 to 23\% of vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the two variants. The reductions in transmission of the delta variant declined over time after the second vaccination, reaching levels that were similar to those in unvaccinated persons by 12 weeks in index patients who had received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and attenuating substantially in those who had received BNT162b2. Protection in contacts also declined in the 3-month period after the second vaccination. CONCLUSIONS Vaccination was associated with a smaller reduction in transmission of the delta variant than of the alpha variant, and the effects of vaccination decreased over time. PCR Ct values at diagnosis of the index patient only partially explained decreased transmission. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.).},
  pmid = {34986294}
}

@techreport{FamiliesUSA2021,
  title = {The {{Catastrophic Cost}} of {{Uninsurance}}: {{COVID-19 Cases}} and {{Deaths Closely Tied}} to {{America}}'s {{Health Coverage Gaps}}},
  author = {{Families USA}},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Washington, DC},
  institution = {Families USA}
}

@techreport{Fancourt2021,
  title = {Covid-19 {{Social Study}}},
  author = {Fancourt, Daisy and Bu, Feifei and Mak, Hei Wan and Steptoe, Prof Andrew},
  year = {2021},
  number = {Results Release 28},
  institution = {UCL}
}

@article{Feenstra2015,
  title = {The {{Next Generation}} of the {{Penn World Table}}},
  author = {Feenstra, Robert C. and Inklaar, Robert and Timmer, Marcel P.},
  year = {2015},
  journal = {American Economic Review},
  volume = {105},
  number = {10},
  pages = {3150--3182}
}

@article{Felipe2005,
  title = {A {{Theory}} of {{Production}}. {{The}} Estimation of the {{Cobb-Douglas}} Function: A Retrospective View},
  author = {Felipe, Jesus and Adams, Gerard F.},
  year = {2005},
  journal = {Eastern Economic Journal},
  volume = {31},
  number = {3},
  pages = {427--445},
  issn = {00945056},
  abstract = {The Cobb-Douglas production function is still today the most ubiquitous form in theoretical and empirical analyses of growth and productivity. The estimation of the parameters of aggregate production functions is central to much of today's work on growth, technological change, productivity, and labor. This paper has taken up Samuelson's [1979] invitation to verify empirically his claim that all the regression of the Cobb-Douglas [1928] production function does is to reproduce the income accounting identity according to which value added equals the sum of the wage bill plus total profits. This paper concludes that Samuelson was right, and believes that this argument has very serious implications for today's work in macroeconomics.},
  arxiv = {-},
  isbn = {00945056},
  keywords = {empirical verification,macroeconomics,production function,technological change}
}

@techreport{Ferguson2021,
  title = {Report 49: {{Growth}}, Population Distribution and Immune Escape of {{Omicron}} in {{England}}},
  author = {Ferguson, Neil and Ghani, Azra and Cori, Anne and Hogan, Alexandra and Hinsley, Wes and Volz, Erik},
  year = {2021},
  institution = {Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team}
}

@techreport{Ferguson2021a,
  title = {Report 50: {{Hospitalisation}} Risk for {{Omicron}} Cases in {{England}}},
  author = {Ferguson, Neil and Ghani, Azra and Hinsley, Wes and Volz, Erik},
  year = {2021},
  number = {December},
  address = {London},
  institution = {Imperial College London COVID Response Team}
}

@article{Fernald2021,
  title = {Future Output Loss from {{COVID-induced}} School Closures},
  author = {Fernald, J. and Li, H. and Ochse, M.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter}
}

@article{Fezeu2011,
  title = {Obesity Is Associated with Higher Risk of Intensive Care Unit Admission and Death in Influenza {{A}} ({{H1N1}}) Patients: {{A}} Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis},
  author = {Fezeu, L. and Julia, C. and Henegar, A. and Bitu, J. and Hu, F. B. and Grobbee, D. E. and Kengne, A. P. and Hercberg, S. and Czernichow, S.},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {Obesity Reviews},
  volume = {12},
  number = {8},
  pages = {653--659},
  issn = {14677881},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1467-789X.2011.00864.x},
  pmid = {21457180},
  keywords = {Death,ICU admission,Influenza A (H1N1) infection,Obesity}
}

@article{Follow-up1977,
  title = {Discounting and Health Benefits},
  author = {Neuburger, Michael Parsonage {and} Henry},
  year = {1992},
  journal = {Health Economics},
  volume = {1},
  keywords = {102177-186,1997,deficient vocal fold-paralysis- autologous,fat -,follow-up-scarred vocal folds,laryngoscope,vocal fold augmentation-volume-}
}

@article{Foster2010,
  title = {The {{Foster}}--{{Greer}}--{{Thorbecke}} ( {{FGT}} ) Poverty Measures: 25 Years Later},
  author = {Foster, James and Greer, Joel and Thorbecke, Erik},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {J Econ Inequal},
  volume = {8},
  pages = {491--524},
  doi = {10.1007/s10888-010-9136-1},
  keywords = {axioms,decomposability,fgt measures,income distribution,poverty,stochastic dominance,subgroup consistency}
}

@article{Fountas2020,
  title = {How Do People Move around? {{National}} Data on Transport Modal Shares for 131 Countries},
  author = {Fountas, Grigorios and Sun, Ya-yen and {Akizu-Gardoki}, Ortzi and Pomponi, Francesco},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {World},
  volume = {1},
  pages = {34--43},
  keywords = {covid-19,global mobility,google community mobility reports,transport modal share}
}

@article{Fraser2009,
  title = {Pandemic Potential of a Strain of {{Influenza A}} ({{H1N1}}): {{Early}} Findings},
  author = {Fraser, Christophe and Donnelly, Christl A and Cauchemez, Simon and Hanage, William P and Van Kerkhove, Maria D and Hollingsworth, T D{\'e}irdre and Griffin, Jamie and Baggaley, Rebecca F and Jenkins, Helen E and Lyons, Emily J and Jombart, Thibaut and Hinsley, Wes R and Grassly, Nicholas C and Balloux, Francois and Ghani, Azra C and Ferguson, Neil M and Rambaut, Andrew and Pybus, Oliver G and {Lopez-Gatell}, Hugo and {Alpuche-Aranda}, Celia M and Bojorquez Chapela, Ietza and Palacios Zavala, Ethel and Espejo Guevara, Dulce Ma. and Checchi, Francesco and Garcia, Erika and Hugonnet, Stephane and Roth, Cathy and {The WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration}},
  year = {2009},
  journal = {Science},
  volume = {324},
  pages = {1557--1562}
}

@article{Frederick2003,
  title = {Measuring {{Intergenerational Time Preference}}:},
  author = {Frederick, Shane},
  year = {2003},
  journal = {The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
  volume = {26},
  number = {1},
  pages = {39--53},
  keywords = {d9,discounting,framing,intergenerational choice,jel classi cation,time preference,value of life}
}

@article{Frederick2006,
  title = {Valuing Future Life and Future Lives: {{A}} Framework for Understanding Discounting},
  author = {Frederick, Shane},
  year = {2006},
  journal = {Journal of Economic Psychology},
  volume = {27},
  number = {5},
  pages = {667--680},
  issn = {01674870},
  doi = {10.1016/j.joep.2006.05.007},
  abstract = {This article offers a conceptual framework for separating the distinct theoretical concepts that are often confounded in discussions of discounting. Two distinctions are emphasized: (a) the difference between discounting a future outcome because it confers less utility and discounting future utility per se, and (b) the differences between discounting one's own future utility and discounting the utility of others who will be alive in the future. Within this framework, I discuss and clarify the continuing controversy over discounting future life and future lives. {\copyright} 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  keywords = {Discount rates,Empathy,Health,Identity,Time preference}
}

@article{Freeman2020,
  title = {Social {{Discount Rates}} for {{Cost-Benefit Analysis}}: {{A Report}} for {{HM Treasury}}},
  author = {Freeman, Mark and Groom, Ben and Spackman, Michael},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Crown Copyright},
  pages = {1--20},
  abstract = {This paper was prepared as a summary of a workshop held in April 2016 on social discounting, which was a follow-up to a previous workshop held in June 2013. The document summarises the key theoretical and empirical evidence on social discounting that had emerged at the time since the Green Book of 2003. The authors would like to thank Loughborough University and the LSE Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment for funding the first workshop in 2013. We would also like to thank the participants of the workshops and those who made comments on previous drafts of this document. In no particular order: Professor Simon Dietz (Department of Geography and Environment LSE and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment), Joseph Lowe (HM Treasury), Professor David Maddison (Department of Economics, Birmingham University), Professor Christian Gollier (Toulouse School of Economics), Professor Cameron Hepburn (University of Oxford, LSE), Dr. Antony Millner (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE), Frikk Nesje (Department of Geography and Environment LSE and Department of Economics, University of Oslo), Dr. Moritz Drupp (Department of Economics, Kiel University), as well as participants from government departments. This acknowledgement comes with the usual disclaimer that all the views contained in this report are the authors' own or those of the authors of the researcher papers discussed, and all remaining errors are our own},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/JIKFF6TS/Freeman et al. - 2020 - Social Discount Rates for Cost-Benefit Analysis A.pdf}
}

@techreport{Fuchs-Schundeln2020,
  title = {The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of {{Covid-19}} School Closures},
  author = {{Fuchs-Sch{\"u}ndeln}, Nicola and Krueger, Dirk and Ludwig, Alexander and Popova, Irina},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {NBER Working Paper 27773},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  issn = {1556-5068},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3697894}
}

@article{Fuentes2020,
  title = {The Scarring Effects of Past Crises on the Global Economy},
  author = {Fuentes, Natalia Mart{\'i}n and Moder, Isabella},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {ECB Economic Bulletin},
  number = {8}
}

@techreport{Fund1998,
  title = {World {{Economic Outlook}}: {{Recovery During}} a {{Pandemic}}},
  author = {{International Monetary Fund}},
  year = {2021},
  number = {October},
  institution = {International Monetary Fund},
  isbn = {1557757402}
}

@article{Gao2020,
  title = {Obesity {{Is}} a {{Risk Factor}} for {{Greater COVID-19 Severity}}},
  author = {Gao, Feng and Zheng, Kenneth I. and Wang, Xiao Bo and Sun, Qing Feng and Pan, Ke Hua and Wang, Ting Yao and Chen, Yong Ping and Targher, Giovanni and Byrne, Christopher D. and George, Jacob and Zheng, Ming Hua},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Diabetes Care},
  volume = {43},
  number = {7},
  pages = {E72-E74},
  issn = {19355548},
  doi = {10.2337/dc20-0682},
  pmid = {32409499}
}

@article{gimmaChangesSocialContacts2022,
  title = {Changes in Social Contacts in {{England}} during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic between {{March}} 2020 and {{March}} 2021 as Measured by the {{CoMix}} Survey: {{A}} Repeated Cross-Sectional Study},
  author = {Gimma, Amy and Munday, James D and Wong, Kerry L M and Coletti, Pietro and Van, Kevin and {Zandvoort} and Prem, Kiesha and {COvid-}, Cmmid and Klepac, Petra and Rubin, G James and Funk, Sebastian and Edmunds, W John and Jarvis, Christopher I},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {PLOS MEDICINE},
  volume = {39},
  number = {March 2020},
  pages = {1--25},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1003907},
  isbn = {1111111111}
}

@book{Glennerster2023,
  title = {Calculating the {{Costs}} and {{Benefits}} of {{Advance Preparations}} for {{Future Pandemics}}},
  author = {Glennerster, Rachel and Snyder, Christopher M. and Tan, Brandon Joel},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {IMF Economic Review},
  volume = {71},
  publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan UK},
  issn = {2041417X},
  doi = {10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z},
  abstract = {While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated---saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars---had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly \$18 trillion---over \$700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending \$60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and \$5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70\% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than \$500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over \$60 billion.},
  isbn = {0-12-345678-9},
  keywords = {H44,I15,I18,L65},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/A45DPUZP/Glennerster et al. - 2023 - Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Prep.pdf;/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/QZHUMUK2/2024_06_11 UC-DC Technical Document.pdf}
}

@techreport{GlobalBurdenofDiseaseCollaborativeNetwork2021,
  title = {Global {{Burden}} of {{Disease Study}} 2019 ({{GBD}} 2019) {{Reference Life Table}}},
  author = {{Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network}},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Seattle, United States of America},
  institution = {{Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)}}
}

@article{Gooding2016,
  title = {A {{Meta-Analytic Review}} of the {{Relationship}} between {{Size}} and {{Performance}} : {{The Productivity}} and {{Efficiency}} of {{Organizations}} and {{Their Subunits Author}} ( s ): {{Richard Z}} . {{Gooding}} and {{John A}} . {{Wagner III Source}} : {{Administrative Science Quarterly}} , {{Vol}} . 30 ,},
  author = {Gooding, Richard Z},
  year = {2016},
  volume = {30},
  number = {4},
  pages = {462--481}
}

@article{Gottlieb2021,
  title = {Working from Home in Developing Countries},
  author = {Gottlieb, Charles and Grobov{\v s}ek, Jan and Poschke, Markus and Saltiel, Fernando},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {European Economic Review},
  volume = {133},
  pages = {103679},
  publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
  issn = {00142921},
  doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103679},
  abstract = {We use worker-level data on the task content of jobs to measure the ability to work-from-home (WFH) in developing countries. We show that the ability to WFH is low in developing countries and document significant heterogeneity across and within occupations, and across worker characteristics. Our measure suggests that educated workers, wage employees and women have a higher ability to WFH. Using data from Brazil, Costa Rica and Peru, we show that our measure is predictive of actual WFH both in terms of overall levels and variation with occupation and individual characteristics, as well as employment outcomes. Our measure can thus be used to predict WFH outcomes in developing countries.},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Occupations,Remote work,Tasks,Work from home}
}

@techreport{Griffiths2021,
  title = {Costs of Delivering {{COVID-19}} Vaccine in 92 {{AMC}} Countries},
  author = {Griffiths, Ulla and Adjagba, Alex and Attaran, Marcia and Hutubessy, Raymond and Van De Maele, Nathalie and Yeung, Karene and Aun, Wei and Cronin, Anne and Allan, Simon and Brenzel, Logan and Resch, Stephen and Portnoy, Allison and Boonstoppel, Laura and Banks, Christina and Alkenbrack, Sarah},
  year = {2021},
  number = {February},
  institution = {COVAX Working Group}
}

@article{GUIDELINESNATIONWIDEIMPLEMENTATION2022,
  title = {{{GUIDELINES ON THE NATIONWIDE IMPLEMENTATION OF ALERT LEVEL SYSTEM FOR COVID-19 RESPONSE As}} Of},
  year = {2022},
  volume = {2019},
  number = {151},
  pages = {1--29}
}

@article{Gupta2021,
  title = {Economic Impacts of the {{COVID-19}} Lockdown in a Remittance-Dependent Region},
  author = {Gupta, Anubhab and Zhu, Heng and Doan, Miki Khanh and Michuda, Aleksandr and Majumder, Binoy},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {103},
  number = {2},
  pages = {466--485},
  issn = {14678276},
  doi = {10.1111/ajae.12178},
  keywords = {COVID-19,financial diaries,lockdown,migration,poverty,remittances}
}

@article{Haacker2020,
  title = {On Discount Rates for Economic Evaluations in Global Health},
  author = {Haacker, Markus and Hallett, Timothy B. and Atun, Rifat},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Health Policy and Planning},
  volume = {35},
  number = {1},
  pages = {107--114},
  issn = {14602237},
  doi = {10.1093/heapol/czz127},
  abstract = {Choices on discount rates have important implications for the outcomes of economic evaluations of health interventions and policies. In global health, such evaluations typically apply a discount rate of 3\% for health outcomes and costs, mirroring guidance developed for high-income countries, notably the USA. The article investigates the suitability of these guidelines for global health [i.e. with a focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)] and seeks to identify best practice. Our analysis builds on an overview of the academic literature on discounting in health evaluations, existing academic or government-related guidelines on discounting, a review on discount rates applied in economic evaluations in global health, and cross-country macroeconomic data. The social discount rate generally applied in global health of 3\% annually is inconsistent with rates of economic growth experienced outside the most advanced economies. For low- and lower-middle-income countries, a discount rate of at least 5\% is more appropriate, and one around 4\% for upper-middle-income countries. Alternative approaches - e.g. motivated by the returns to alternative investments or by the cost of financing - could usefully be applied, dependent on policy context. The current practise could lead to systematic bias towards over-valuing the future costs and health benefits of interventions. For health economic evaluations in global health, guidelines on discounting need to be adapted to take account of the different economic contexts of LMICs.},
  pmid = {31625564},
  keywords = {benefit-cost analysis,cost-effectiveness analysis,Discount rates,economic growth,global health,low-income countries,middle-income countries}
}

@article{Hakki2022,
  title = {Onset and Window of {{SARS-CoV-2}} Infectiousness and Temporal Correlation with Symptom Onset: A Prospective, Longitudinal, Community Cohort Study},
  author = {Hakki, Seran and Zhou, Jie and Jonnerby, Jakob and Singanayagam, Anika and Barnett, Jack L and Madon, Kieran J and Koycheva, Aleksandra and Kelly, Christine and Houston, Hamish and Nevin, Sean and Fenn, Joe and Kundu, Rhia and Crone, Michael A and Pillay, Timesh D and Ahmad, Shazaad and {Derqui-Fernandez}, Nieves and Conibear, Emily and Freemont, Paul S and Taylor, Graham P and Ferguson, Neil and Zambon, Maria and Barclay, Wendy S and Dunning, Jake and Lalvani, Ajit and Badhan, Anjna and Varro, Robert and Luca, Constanta and Quinn, Valerie and Cutajar, Jessica and Nichols, Niamh and Russell, Jessica and Grey, Holly and Ketkar, Anjeli and Miserocchi, Giulia and Tejpal, Chitra and Catchpole, Harriet and Nixon, Koji and Di Biase, Berenice and Hopewell, Tamara and Narean, Janakan Sam and Samuel, Jada and Timcang, Kristel and McDermott, Eimear and Bremang, Samuel and Hammett, Sarah and Evetts, Samuel and Kondratiuk, Alexandra},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Respiratory Medicine},
  volume = {2600},
  number = {22},
  issn = {22132600},
  doi = {10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00226-0},
  abstract = {Background Knowledge of the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness is crucial in developing policies to curb transmission. Mathematical modelling based on scarce empirical evidence and key assumptions has driven isolation and testing policy, but real-world data are needed. We aimed to characterise infectiousness across the full course of infection in a real-world community setting.}
}

@misc{Hale2020,
  title = {Oxford {{COVID-19 Government Response Tracker}}, {{Blavatnik School}} of {{Government}}},
  author = {Hale, Thomas and Webster, Sam and Petherick, Anna and Phillips, Toby and Kira, Beatriz},
  year = {2020}
}

@article{Hale2021,
  title = {A Global Panel Database of Pandemic Policies ({{Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker}})},
  author = {Hale, Thomas and Angrist, Noam and Goldszmidt, Rafael and Kira, Beatriz and Petherick, Anna and Phillips, Toby and Webster, Samuel and {Cameron-Blake}, Emily and Hallas, Laura and Majumdar, Saptarshi and Tatlow, Helen},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  volume = {5},
  number = {4},
  pages = {529--538},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {23973374},
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8},
  isbn = {4156202101079},
  pmid = {33686204}
}

@article{Hall2011,
  title = {Quantification of the Effect of Energy Imbalance on Bodyweight},
  author = {Hall, Kevin D. and Sacks, Gary and Chandramohan, Dhruva and Chow, Carson C. and Wang, Y. Claire and Gortmaker, Steven L. and Swinburn, Boyd A.},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {The Lancet},
  volume = {378},
  number = {9793},
  pages = {826--837},
  issn = {1474547X},
  doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60812-X},
  pmid = {21872751}
}

@misc{Hamadeh2021,
  title = {New {{World Bank}} Country Classifications by Income Level: 2021-2022},
  author = {Hamadeh, Nada and {van Rompaey}, Catherine and Metreau, Eric},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {https://web.archive.org/web/20221123071838/https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2021-2022},
  howpublished = {https://web.archive.org/web/20221123071838/https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2021-2022}
}

@article{Hamer2020,
  title = {Lifestyle Risk Factors, Inflammatory Mechanisms, and {{COVID-19}} Hospitalization: {{A}} Community-Based Cohort Study of 387,109 Adults in {{UK}}},
  author = {Hamer, Mark and Kivim{\"a}ki, Mika and Gale, Catharine R. and Batty, G. David},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Brain, Behavior, and Immunity},
  volume = {87},
  pages = {184--187},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  issn = {10902139},
  doi = {10.1016/j.bbi.2020.05.059},
  pmid = {32454138},
  keywords = {C-reactive protein,Coronavirus,Infection,Obesity,Physical activity,Population cohort,Smoking}
}

@article{Hammitt2020,
  title = {Valuing Mortality Risk in the Time of {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {Hammitt, James K.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
  volume = {61},
  number = {2},
  pages = {129--154},
  publisher = {{Journal of Risk and Uncertainty}},
  issn = {15730476},
  doi = {10.1007/s11166-020-09338-1},
  abstract = {In evaluating the appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between wealth and mortality risk, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately \$10 million, which implies the value of preventing 100,000 COVID-19 deaths is \$1 trillion. Is this value too large? There are reasons to think so. First, VSL is a marginal rate of substitution and the potential risk reductions are non-marginal. The standard VSL model implies the rate of substitution of wealth for risk reduction is smaller when the risk reduction is larger, but a closed-form solution calibrated to estimates of the income elasticity of VSL shows the rate of decline is modest until the value of a non-marginal risk reduction accounts for a substantial share of income; average individuals are predicted to be willing to spend more than half their income to reduce one-year mortality risk by 1 in 100. Second, mortality risk is concentrated among the elderly, for whom VSL may be smaller and who would benefit from a persistent risk reduction for a shorter period because of their shorter life expectancy. Third, the pandemic and responses to it have caused substantial losses in income that should decrease VSL. In contrast, VSL is plausibly larger for risks (like COVID-19) that are dreaded, uncertain, catastrophic, and ambiguous. These arguments are evaluated and key issues for improving estimates are highlighted.},
  pmid = {33199940},
  keywords = {Age-dependence,Ambiguity aversion,COVID-19,Pandemic,Risk perception,Value per statistical life}
}

@techreport{Hanushek2020,
  title = {The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses},
  author = {Hanushek, Eric A. and Woessmann, Ludger},
  year = {2020},
  institution = {OECD},
  abstract = {The worldwide school closures in early 2020 led to losses in learning that will not easily be made up for even if schools quickly return to their prior performance levels. These losses will have lasting economic impacts both on the affected students and on each nation unless they are effectively remediated. While the precise learning losses are not yet known, existing research suggests that the students in grades 1-12 affected by the closures might expect some 3 percent lower income over their entire lifetimes. For nations, the lower long-term growth related to such losses might yield an average of 1.5 percent lower annual GDP for the remainder of the century. These economic losses would grow if schools are unable to re-start quickly. The economic losses will be more deeply felt by disadvantaged students. All indications are that students whose families are less able to support out-of-school learning will face larger learning losses than their more advantaged peers, which in turn will translate into deeper losses of lifetime earnings. The present value of the economic losses to nations reach huge proportions. Just returning schools to where they were in 2019 will not avoid such losses. Only making them better can. While a variety of approaches might be attempted, existing research indicates that close attention to the modified re-opening of schools offers strategies that could ameliorate the losses. Specifically, with the expected increase in video-based instruction, matching the skills of the teaching force to the new range of tasks and activities could quickly move schools to heightened performance. Additionally, because the prior disruptions are likely to increase the variations in learning levels within individual classrooms, pivoting to more individualised instruction could leave all students better off as schools resume. As schools move to re-establish their programmes even as the pandemic continues, it is natural to focus considerable attention on the mechanics and logistics of safe re-opening. But the long-term economic impacts also require serious attention, because the losses already suffered demand more than the best of currently considered re-opening approaches.},
  keywords = {economic impact,GDP,learning losses}
}

@book{Hauck2018,
  title = {The {{Economics}} of {{Infectious Diseases}}},
  author = {Hauck, Katharina},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance},
  number = {August},
  doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.251},
  abstract = {Economics can make immensely valuable contributions to our understanding of infectious disease transmission and the design of effective policy responses. The one unique charac? teristic of infectious diseases makes it also particularly complicated to analyze: the fact that it is transmitted from person to person. It explains why individuals' behavior and ex? ternalities are a central topic for the economics of infectious diseases. Many public health interventions are built on the assumption that individuals are altruistic and consider the benefits and costs of their actions to others. This would imply that even infected individu? als demand prevention, which stands in conflict with the economic theory of rational be? havior. Empirical evidence is conflicting for infected individuals. For healthy individuals, evidence suggests that the demand for prevention is affected by real or perceived risk of infection. However, studies are plagued by underreporting of preventive behavior and non-random selection into testing. Some empirical studies have shown that the impact of prevention interventions could be far greater than one case prevented, resulting in signif? icant externalities. Therefore, economic evaluations need to build on dynamic transmis? sion models in order to correctly estimate these externalities. Future research needs are significant. Economic research needs to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission; support the better integration of economic and epidemi? ological modeling, evaluation of large-scale public health interventions with quasi-experi? mental methods, design of optimal subsidies for tackling the global threat of antimicro? bial resistance, refocusing the research agenda toward underresearched diseases; and most importantly to assure that progress translates into saved lives on the ground by ad? vising on effective health system strengthening.},
  isbn = {978-0-19-062597-9},
  keywords = {behavior,communicable diseases,infectious diseases,prevalence-elasticity,prevention,treatment}
}

@techreport{Hausmann2020,
  title = {Horrible Trade-Offs in a Pandemic: {{Lockdowns}}, Transfers, Fiscal Space and Compliance},
  author = {Hausmann, Ricardo and Schetter, Ulrich},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {CID Faculty Working Paper No. 382},
  institution = {Center for International Development at Harvard University}
}

@article{Haw2020,
  title = {Optimizing Social and Economic Activity While Containing {{SARS-CoV-2}} Transmission Using {{DAEDALUS}}},
  author = {Haw, David and Forchini, Giovanni and Doohan, Patrick and Christen, Paula and Pianella, Matteo and Johnson, Rob and Bajaj, Sumali and Hogan, Alexandra B and Winskill, Peter and Miraldo, Marisa and White, Peter J and Ghani, Azra C and Ferguson, Neil M and Smith, Peter C and Hauck, Katharina},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Nature Computational Science},
  volume = {2},
  pages = {223--233},
  publisher = {Imperial College London},
  doi = {10.25561/83928}
}

@article{Haw2022,
  title = {Data Needs for Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Models of Pandemic Mitigation Policies},
  author = {Haw, David J and Morgenstern, Christian and Forchini, Giovanni and Johnson, Rob and Doohan, Patrick and Smith, Peter C and Hauck, Katharina D},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Epidemics},
  volume = {41},
  number = {October},
  pages = {100644},
  publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
  issn = {1755-4365},
  doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100644},
  keywords = {EconomicsTransmissionModelling}
}

@article{Hawkes2006,
  title = {Uneven Dietary Development: Linking the Policies and Processes of Globalization with the Nutrition Transition, Obesity and Diet-Related Chronic Diseases},
  author = {Hawkes, Corinna},
  year = {2006},
  journal = {Globalization and Health},
  volume = {2},
  number = {4},
  doi = {10.1186/1744-8603-2-4}
}

@article{He2020a,
  title = {Temporal Dynamics in Viral Shedding and Transmissibility of {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {He, Xi and Lau, Eric H.Y. and Wu, Peng and Deng, Xilong and Wang, Jian and Hao, Xinxin and Lau, Yiu Chung and Wong, Jessica Y. and Guan, Yujuan and Tan, Xinghua and Mo, Xiaoneng and Chen, Yanqing and Liao, Baolin and Chen, Weilie and Hu, Fengyu and Zhang, Qing and Zhong, Mingqiu and Wu, Yanrong and Zhao, Lingzhai and Zhang, Fuchun and Cowling, Benjamin J. and Li, Fang and Leung, Gabriel M.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Nature Medicine},
  volume = {26},
  number = {5},
  pages = {672--675},
  issn = {1546170X},
  doi = {10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5},
  abstract = {We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector--infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44\% (95\% confidence interval, 25--69\%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.},
  pmid = {32296168}
}

@article{heathCalculatingExpectedValue2020,
  title = {Calculating the {{Expected Value}} of {{Sample Information}} in {{Practice}}: {{Considerations}} from 3 {{Case Studies}}},
  shorttitle = {Calculating the {{Expected Value}} of {{Sample Information}} in {{Practice}}},
  author = {Heath, Anna and Kunst, Natalia and Jackson, Christopher and Strong, Mark and {Alarid-Escudero}, Fernando and {Goldhaber-Fiebert}, Jeremy D. and Baio, Gianluca and Menzies, Nicolas A. and Jalal, Hawre},
  year = {2020},
  month = apr,
  journal = {Medical Decision Making},
  volume = {40},
  number = {3},
  pages = {314--326},
  issn = {0272-989X, 1552-681X},
  doi = {10.1177/0272989X20912402},
  urldate = {2024-08-15},
  abstract = {Background. Investing efficiently in future research to improve policy decisions is an important goal. Expected value of sample information (EVSI) can be used to select the specific design and sample size of a proposed study by assessing the benefit of a range of different studies. Estimating EVSI with the standard nested Monte Carlo algorithm has a notoriously high computational burden, especially when using a complex decision model or when optimizing over study sample sizes and designs. Recently, several more efficient EVSI approximation methods have been developed. However, these approximation methods have not been compared, and therefore their comparative performance across different examples has not been explored. Methods. We compared 4 EVSI methods using 3 previously published health economic models. The examples were chosen to represent a range of real-world contexts, including situations with multiple study outcomes, missing data, and data from an observational rather than a randomized study. The computational speed and accuracy of each method were compared. Results. In each example, the approximation methods took minutes or hours to achieve reasonably accurate EVSI estimates, whereas the traditional Monte Carlo method took weeks. Specific methods are particularly suited to problems where we wish to compare multiple proposed sample sizes, when the proposed sample size is large, or when the health economic model is computationally expensive. Conclusions. As all the evaluated methods gave estimates similar to those given by traditional Monte Carlo, we suggest that EVSI can now be efficiently computed with confidence in realistic examples. No systematically superior EVSI computation method exists as the properties of the different methods depend on the underlying health economic model, data generation process, and user expertise.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/ENXRFMWF/Heath et al. - 2020 - Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Informati.pdf}
}

@article{Hills2023,
  title = {Proactive Vaccination Using Multiviral {{Quartet Nanocages}} to Elicit Broad Anti-Coronavirus Responses},
  author = {Hills, Rory A and Tan, Tiong Kit and Cohen, Alexander A and Keeffe, Jennifer R and Keeble, Anthony H and Gnanapragasam, Priyanthi N P and Storm, Kaya N and Hill, Michelle L and Liu, Sai and {Gilbert-Jaramillo}, Javier and Afzal, Madeeha and Napier, Amy and James, William S and Bjorkman, Pamela J and Townsend, Alain R and Howarth, Mark and Hospital, John Radcliffe},
  year = {2024},
  journal = {Nature Nanotechnology},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  doi = {10.1038/s41565-024-01655-9},
  abstract = {Defending against future pandemics may require vaccine platforms that protect across a range of related pathogens. The presentation of multiple receptor-binding domains (RBDs) from evolutionarily-related viruses on a nanoparticle scaffold elicits a strong antibody response to conserved regions. Here we produce quartets of tandemly-linked RBDs from SARS-like betacoronaviruses coupled to the mi3 nanocage through a SpyTag/SpyCatcher spontaneous reaction. These Quartet Nanocages induce a high level of neutralizing antibodies against several different coronaviruses, including against viruses not represented on the vaccine. In animals primed with SARS-CoV-2 Spike, boost immunizations with Quartet Nanocages increased the strength and breadth of an otherwise narrow immune response. Quartet Nanocages are a strategy with potential to confer heterotypic protection against emergent zoonotic coronavirus pathogens and facilitate proactive pandemic protection. One Sentence Summary A vaccine candidate with polyprotein antigens displayed on nanocages induces neutralizing antibodies to multiple SARS-like coronaviruses. \#\#\# Competing Interest Statement M.H. is an inventor on a patent on spontaneous amide bond formation (EP2534484) and a SpyBiotech co-founder and shareholder. M.H. and A.H.K. are inventors on a patent on SpyTag003:SpyCatcher003 (UK Intellectual Property Office 1706430.4). P.J.B. and A.A.C. are inventors on a US patent application filed by the California Institute of Technology that covers the methodology to generate cross-reactive antibodies using mosaic nanoparticles. P.J.B., and A.A.C. are inventors on a US patent application filed by the California Institute of Technology that covers the monoclonal antibodies elicited by vaccination with Mosaic nanoparticles described in this work. P.J.B., A.A.C. and J.R.K. are inventors on a US patent application filed by the California Institute of Technology that covers the methods of isolating cross-reactive antibodies by vaccination with mosaic nanoparticles. All other authors have no competing interests to declare.}
}

@techreport{Holtemoller2020,
  title = {Integrated Assessment of Epidemic and Economic Dynamics},
  author = {Holtem{\"o}ller, Oliver},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {IWH Discussion Papers},
  volume = {4},
  institution = {Leibniz-Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)}
}

@article{IMF2020,
  title = {The Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Effects},
  author = {Caselli, Francesca and Grigoli, Francesco and Lian, Weicheng and Sandri, Damiano},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {World Economic Outlook},
  volume = {October},
  pages = {65--84},
  keywords = {Chapter 2,October 2020,The Great Lockdown: Dissecting The Economic Effect,World Economic Outlook}
}

@misc{INEGI2022,
  title = {Gross {{Domestic Product}} ({{GDP}}) - {{Quarterly}}},
  author = {{Instituto Nacional de Estad{\'i}stica y Geograf{\'i}a (INEGI)}},
  year = {2022},
  address = {Aguascalientes, Ags}
}

@techreport{Inklaar2013,
  title = {Capital, {{Labor}} and {{TFP}} in {{PWT8}}. 0},
  author = {Inklaar, Robert and Timmer, M},
  year = {2013},
  institution = {University of Groningen},
  abstract = {This paper introduces, documents and discusses the new input and total factor productivity (TFP) measures introduced in Penn World Table (PWT) version 8.0. New measures of capital stocks, built up from a number of assets, are constructed and country -\--specific measures of the labor share in GDP are also developed. We show that these new measures show novel features by themselves, in particular strong evidence of declining labor shares over time. We also show that these newly measured inputs explain a notably different fraction of cross -\--country income differences than standard, simpler measures.}
}

@misc{InternationalMonetaryFund2020,
  title = {Database of {{Fiscal Policy Responses}} to {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {{International Monetary Fund}},
  year = {2020},
  howpublished = {https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Database-in-Response-to-COVID-19}
}

@techreport{InternationalMonetaryFund2021,
  title = {World {{Economic Outlook}}: {{Managing Divergent Recoveries}}},
  author = {{International Monetary Fund}},
  year = {2021},
  volume = {April},
  institution = {International Monetary Fund},
  issn = {1018-5941},
  doi = {10.5089/9781513587905.001}
}

@article{Jackson2021,
  title = {A Guide to Value of Information Methods for Prioritising Research in Health Impact Modelling},
  author = {Jackson, Christopher and Johnson, Robert and De Nazelle, Audrey and Goel, Rahul and De S{\'a}, Thiago H{\'e}rick and Tainio, Marko and Woodcock, James},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Epidemiologic Methods},
  volume = {10},
  number = {1},
  eprint = {1905.00008},
  pages = {1--22},
  issn = {2161962X},
  doi = {10.1515/em-2021-0012},
  abstract = {Health impact simulation models are used to predict how a proposed policy or scenario will affect population health outcomes. These models represent the typically-complex systems that describe how the scenarios affect exposures to risk factors for disease or injury (e.g. air pollution or physical inactivity), and how these risk factors are related to measures of population health (e.g. expected survival). These models are informed by multiple sources of data, and are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty. We want to describe which sources of uncertainty contribute most to uncertainty about the estimate or decision arising from the model. Furthermore, we want to decide where further research should be focused to obtain further data to reduce this uncertainty, and what form that research might take. This article presents a tutorial in the use of Value of Information methods for uncertainty analysis and research prioritisation in health impact simulation models. These methods are based on Bayesian decision-theoretic principles, and quantify the expected benefits from further information of different kinds. The expected value of partial perfect information about a parameter measures sensitivity of a decision or estimate to uncertainty about that parameter. The expected value of sample information represents the expected benefit from a specific proposed study to get better information about the parameter. The methods are applicable both to situations where the model is used to make a decision between alternative policies, and situations where the model is simply used to estimate a quantity (such as expected gains in survival under a scenario). This paper explains how to calculate and interpret the expected value of information in the context of a simple model describing the health impacts of air pollution from motorised transport. We provide a general-purpose R package and full code to reproduce the example analyses.},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv},
  keywords = {air pollution,decision theory,design,sensitivity analysis,uncertainty},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/9CW3NHAF/Jackson et al. - 2021 - A guide to value of information methods for priori.pdf}
}

@article{jacksonValueInformationSensitivity2019,
  title = {Value of {{Information}} : {{Sensitivity Analysis}} and {{Research Design}} in {{Bayesian Evidence ABSTRACT}}},
  author = {Jackson, Christopher and Presanis, Anne and Conti, Stefano and Angelis, Daniela De},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  volume = {0},
  number = {0},
  pages = {1--22},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  issn = {0162-1459},
  doi = {10.1080/01621459.2018.1562932},
  keywords = {decision theory,prioritization,research,uncertainty},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/C33FCNEW/Jackson et al. - 2019 - Value of Information  Sensitivity Analysis and Re.pdf}
}

@article{Jagric2022,
  title = {Reshaping the {{Healthcare Sector}} with {{Economic Policy Measures Based}} on {{COVID-19 Epidemic Severity}}: {{A Global Study}}},
  author = {Jagri{\v c}, Timotej and Fister, Du{\v s}an and Jagri{\v c}, Vita},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Healthcare (Switzerland)},
  volume = {10},
  number = {2},
  issn = {22279032},
  doi = {10.3390/healthcare10020315},
  abstract = {Governments around the world are looking for ways to manage economic consequences of COVID-19 and promote economic development. The aim of this study is to identify the areas where the application of economic policy measures would enhance the resilience of societies on epidemic risks. We use data on the COVID-19 pandemic outcome in a large number of countries. With the estimation of multiple econometric models, we identify areas being a reasonable choice for economic policy intervention. It was found that viable remediation actions worth taking can be identified either for long-, mid-, or short-term horizons, impacting the equality, healthcare sector, and national economy characteristics. We suggest encouraging research and development based on innovative technologies linked to industries in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and biotech, promoting transformation of healthcare systems based on new technologies, providing access to quality health-care, promoting public healthcare providers, and investing in the development of regional healthcare infrastructure, as a tool of equal regional development based on economic assessment. Further, a central element of this study, i.e. the innovative identification matrix, could be populated as a unique policy framework, either for latest pandemic or any similar outbreaks in future.},
  keywords = {Artificial intelligence,COVID-19 pandemic,Economic development,Health system resilience,Healthcare sector transformation,Research and development}
}

@techreport{Jang2021,
  title = {Aggregate and Intergenerational Implications of School Closures: {{A}} Quantitative Assessment},
  author = {Jang, Youngsoo and Yum, Minchul},
  year = {2020},
  institution = {{Shanghai University of Finance and Economics}},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3857687},
  abstract = {A majority of governments around the world unprecedentedly closed schools in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper quantitatively investigates the macroeconomic and dis-tributional consequences of school closures through intergenerational channels in the medium-and long-term. The model economy is a dynastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which schools, in the form of public education investments, complement parental investments in producing children's human capital. We calibrate the stationary equilibrium of the model to the U.S. economy and compute the equilibrium responses following unexpected school closure shocks. We {\dots}nd that school closures have moderate long-lasting adverse e¤ects on macroeconomic aggregates such as output. In addition, we {\dots}nd that school closures reduce intergenerational mobility, especially among older children. Finally, we {\dots}nd that lower sub-stitutability between public and parental investments induces larger damages in the aggregate economy and overall lifetime incomes of the a¤ected children, while mitigating negative impacts on intergenerational mobility. In all {\dots}ndings, heterogeneous parental responses to school closures play a key role. Our results provide a quantitatively relevant dimension to consider for policymakers assessing potential costs of school closures.},
  keywords = {aggregate,and economics,china,com,e-mail,e24,gmail,i24,intergenerational mobility,j22,jang,jangys724,jel codes,lifetime income,loss,parental investments,shanghai university of finance,substitutability,university of,yum}
}

@article{Jara2021,
  title = {Effectiveness of an Inactivated {{SARS-CoV-2}} Vaccine in {{Chile}}},
  author = {Jara, Alejandro and Undurraga, Eduardo A. and Gonz{\'a}lez, Cecilia and Paredes, Fabio and Fontecilla, Tom{\'a}s and Jara, Gonzalo and Pizarro, Alejandra and Acevedo, Johanna and Leo, Katherinne and Leon, Francisco and Sans, Carlos and Leighton, Paulina and Su{\'a}rez, Pamela and {Garc{\'i}a-Escorza}, Heriberto and Araos, Rafael},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {New England Journal of Medicine},
  volume = {385},
  number = {10},
  pages = {875--884},
  issn = {0028-4793},
  doi = {10.1056/nejmoa2107715},
  pmid = {34233097}
}

@article{Jarvis2020,
  title = {Quantifying the Impact of Physical Distance Measures on the Transmission of {{COVID-19}} in the {{UK}}},
  author = {Jarvis, Christopher I. and {van Zandvoort}, Kevin and Gimma, Amy and Prem, Kiesha and Klepac, Petra and Rubin, G. James and Edmunds, W. John and Auzenbergs, Megan and Medley, Graham and Funk, Sebastian and Pearson, Carl A.B. and Jit, Mark and Kucharski, Adam J. and Jombart, Thibaut and Knight, Gwen and Eggo, Rosalind M. and Nightingale, Emily S. and Abbott, Sam and Hellewell, Joel and Deol, Arminder K. and Bosse, Nikos I. and Russell, Timothy W. and Procter, Simon R. and Leclerc, Quentin and Diamond, Charlie and Liu, Yang and Endo, Akira and Munday, James D. and Emery, Jon C. and Rosello, Alicia and O'Reilly, Kathleen and Gibbs, Hamish and Sun, Fiona and Flasche, Stefan and Quilty, Billy J. and Houben, Rein M.G.J. and Clifford, Samuel and Davies, Nicholas},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {medRxiv},
  pages = {2020.03.31.20049023-2020.03.31.20049023},
  publisher = {BMC Medicine},
  doi = {10.1101/2020.03.31.20049023},
  abstract = {Background: To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated per case). Methods: We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire documents the age and location of contacts and as well as a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing measures. The first surveys were sent on Tuesday 24th March, one day after a ``lockdown'' was implemented across the UK. We compared measured contact patterns during the ``lockdown'' to patterns of social contact made during a non-epidemic period. By comparing these, we estimated the change in reproduction number as a consequence of the physical distancing measures imposed. We used a meta-analysis of published estimates to inform our estimates of the reproduction number before interventions were put in place. Findings: We found a 73\% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant (from 10.2 to 2.9). This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 (95\% confidence interval [CI] 0.37 - 0.89) after the lockdown, based on all types of contact and 0.37 (95\% CI = 0.22 - 0.53) for physical contacts only.},
  keywords = {ac,christopher,contact survey,correspondence,covid-19,COVID-19Contact surveyPandemicDisease outbreak,disease outbreak,jarvis,lshtm,ncov,pandemic,reproduction number,uk}
}

@article{Jarvis2023,
  title = {Social Contact Patterns Following the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: A Snapshot of Post-Pandemic Behaviour from the {{CoMix}} Study},
  author = {Jarvis, Christopher I and Coletti, Pietro and Backer, Jantien A and Munday, James D and Faes, Christel and Beutels, Philippe and Althaus, Christian L. and Low, Nicola and Wallinga, Jacco and Hens, Niel and Edmunds, W John},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {MedRxiv}
}

@article{Johnson2023,
  title = {The Societal Value of {{SARS-CoV-2}} Booster Vaccination in {{Indonesia}}},
  author = {Johnson, Rob and Djaafara, Bimandra and Haw, David and Doohan, Patrick and Forchini, Giovanni and Pianella, Matteo and Ferguson, Neil and Smith, Peter C and Hauck, Katharina D},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Vaccine},
  number = {41},
  issn = {0264-410X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.01.068}
}

@misc{Johnson2024,
  title = {{{DAEDALUS}} for {{CEPI}}'s 100-Day Mission: Code and Model Description},
  author = {Johnson, Rob and Doohan, Patrick and Whittaker, Charles and {Olivera-Mesa}, Daniela and Morgenstern, Christian and Parchani, Kanchan and Haw, David and Forchini, Giovanni and Ghani, Azra and Hauck, Katharina},
  year = {2024},
  howpublished = {https://github.com/robj411/p2\_drivers}
}

@article{johnsonPromotingHealthyPopulations2024,
  title = {Promoting Healthy Populations as a Pandemic Preparedness Strategy: A Simulation Study from {{Mexico}}},
  shorttitle = {Promoting Healthy Populations as a Pandemic Preparedness Strategy},
  author = {Johnson, Rob and Carnalla, Martha and {Basto-Abreu}, Ana and Haw, David and Morgenstern, Christian and Doohan, Patrick and Forchini, Giovanni and Hauck, Katharina D. and {Barrientos-Guti{\'e}rrez}, Tonatiuh},
  year = {2024},
  month = feb,
  journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Americas},
  volume = {30},
  pages = {100682},
  issn = {2667193X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682},
  urldate = {2024-06-07},
  abstract = {Background The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/projects/papers/johnson24.pdf}
}

@techreport{johnsonReport51Valuing2022,
  title = {Report 51 : {{Valuing}} Lives , Education and the Economy in an Epidemic : {{Societal}} Benefit of {{SARS-CoV-2}} Booster Vaccinations in {{Indonesia}}},
  author = {Johnson, Rob and Djaafara, Bimandra and Haw, David and Doohan, Patrick and Forchini, Giovanni and Pianella, Matteo and Ferguson, Neil and Smith, Peter C and Hauck, Katharina D},
  year = {2022},
  number = {February}
}

@article{jonesNationalContributionsClimate2023,
  title = {National Contributions to Climate Change Due to Historical Emissions of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide since 1850},
  author = {Jones, Matthew W. and Peters, Glen P. and Gasser, Thomas and Andrew, Robbie M. and Schwingshackl, Clemens and G{\"u}tschow, Johannes and Houghton, Richard A. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Pongratz, Julia and Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e}, Corinne},
  year = {2023},
  month = mar,
  journal = {Scientific Data},
  volume = {10},
  number = {1},
  pages = {155},
  issn = {2052-4463},
  doi = {10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1},
  urldate = {2024-08-28},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/JFWCTHJN/Jones et al. - 2023 - National contributions to climate change due to hi.pdf}
}

@misc{jonessarahpImperialCollegeLondon2020,
  title = {Imperial {{College London YouGov Covid}} 19 {{Behaviour Tracker Data Hub}}},
  author = {{Jones, Sarah P} and {Imperial College London Big Data Analytical Unit} and {YouGov Plc}},
  year = {2020},
  month = apr,
  urldate = {2024-05-30}
}

@techreport{Jorda2020,
  title = {Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics},
  author = {Jord{\`a}, {\`O}scar and Singh, Sanjay R. and Taylor, Alan M.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
  pages = {22},
  institution = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
  abstract = {What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings},
  keywords = {depressions,pandemics,real interest rate,wars}
}

@techreport{kahnLongtermMacroeconomicEffects2019,
  title = {Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Croww-Country Analysis},
  author = {Kahn, Matthew and Mohaddes, Kamiar and Ng, Ryan and Pesaran, M Hashem and Raissi, Mehdi and Yang, Jui-Chung},
  year = {2019},
  month = aug,
  number = {Working Paper 26167},
  address = {Cambridge, MA},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/8GIJUM9E/Matthew Kahn et al. - 2019 - Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change.pdf}
}

@book{keelingModellingInfectiousDiseases2007,
  title = {Modelling {{Infectious Diseases}} in {{Humans}} and {{Animals}}},
  author = {Keeling, Matt and Rohani, Pejman},
  year = {2007},
  publisher = {Princeton University Press},
  address = {New Jersey},
  isbn = {978-0-691-11617-4}
}

@article{Khoury2021,
  title = {A Meta-Analysis of Early Results to Predict Vaccine Efficacy against {{Omicron}}},
  author = {Khoury, David S. and Steain, Megan and Triccas, James A. and Sigal, Alex and Davenport, Miles P. and Cromer, Deborah},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {medRxiv}
}

@article{Killingley2022,
  title = {Safety, Tolerability and Viral Kinetics during {{SARS-CoV-2}} Human Challenge in Young Adults},
  author = {Killingley, Ben and Mann, Alex J. and Kalinova, Mariya and Boyers, Alison and Goonawardane, Niluka and Zhou, Jie and Lindsell, Kate and Hare, Samanjit S. and Brown, Jonathan and Frise, Rebecca and Smith, Emma and Hopkins, Claire and Noulin, Nicolas and L{\"o}ndt, Brandon and Wilkinson, Tom and Harden, Stephen and McShane, Helen and Baillet, Mark and Gilbert, Anthony and Jacobs, Michael and Charman, Christine and Mande, Priya and {Nguyen-Van-Tam}, Jonathan S. and Semple, Malcolm G. and Read, Robert C. and Ferguson, Neil M. and Openshaw, Peter J. and Rapeport, Garth and Barclay, Wendy S. and Catchpole, Andrew P. and Chiu, Christopher},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Nature Medicine},
  volume = {28},
  number = {5},
  pages = {1031--1041},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {1546170X},
  doi = {10.1038/s41591-022-01780-9},
  abstract = {Since its emergence in 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused hundreds of millions of cases and continues to circulate globally. To establish a novel SARS-CoV-2 human challenge model that enables controlled investigation of pathogenesis, correlates of protection and efficacy testing of forthcoming interventions, 36 volunteers aged 18--29 years without evidence of previous infection or vaccination were inoculated with 10 TCID50 of a wild-type virus (SARS-CoV-2/human/GBR/484861/2020) intranasally in an open-label, non-randomized study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04865237; funder, UK Vaccine Taskforce). After inoculation, participants were housed in a high-containment quarantine unit, with 24-hour close medical monitoring and full access to higher-level clinical care. The study's primary objective was to identify an inoculum dose that induced well-tolerated infection in more than 50\% of participants, with secondary objectives to assess virus and symptom kinetics during infection. All pre-specified primary and secondary objectives were met. Two participants were excluded from the per-protocol analysis owing to seroconversion between screening and inoculation, identified post hoc. Eighteen ({\textasciitilde}53\%) participants became infected, with viral load (VL) rising steeply and peaking at {\textasciitilde}5 days after inoculation. Virus was first detected in the throat but rose to significantly higher levels in the nose, peaking at {\textasciitilde}8.87 log10 copies per milliliter (median, 95\% confidence interval (8.41, 9.53)). Viable virus was recoverable from the nose up to {\textasciitilde}10 days after inoculation, on average. There were no serious adverse events. Mild-to-moderate symptoms were reported by 16 (89\%) infected participants, beginning 2--4 days after inoculation, whereas two (11\%) participants remained asymptomatic (no reportable symptoms). Anosmia or dysosmia developed more slowly in 15 (83\%) participants. No quantitative correlation was noted between VL and symptoms, with high VLs present even in asymptomatic infection. All infected individuals developed serum spike-specific IgG and neutralizing antibodies. Results from lateral flow tests were strongly associated with viable virus, and modeling showed that twice-weekly rapid antigen tests could diagnose infection before 70--80\% of viable virus had been generated. Thus, with detailed characterization and safety analysis of this first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study in young adults, viral kinetics over the course of primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 were established, with implications for public health recommendations and strategies to affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Future studies will identify the immune factors associated with protection in those participants who did not develop infection or symptoms and define the effect of prior immunity and viral variation on clinical outcome.},
  pmid = {35361992}
}

@article{Kim2021,
  title = {{{BMI}} as a {{Risk Factor}} for {{Clinical Outcomes}} in {{Patients Hospitalized}} with {{COVID-19}} in {{New York}}},
  author = {Kim, Tara S. and Roslin, Mitchell and Wang, Jason J. and Kane, Jamie and Hirsch, Jamie S. and Kim, Eun Ji},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Obesity},
  volume = {29},
  number = {2},
  pages = {279--284},
  issn = {1930739X},
  doi = {10.1002/oby.23076},
  abstract = {Objective: This study examined the association between BMI and clinical outcomes among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Methods: A total of 10,861 patients with COVID-19 infection who were admitted to the Northwell Health system hospitals between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020, were included in this study. BMI was classified as underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obesity classes I, II, and III. Primary outcomes were invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and death. Results: A total of 243 (2.2\%) patients were underweight, 2,507 (23.1\%) were normal weight, 4,021 (37.0\%) had overweight, 2,345 (21.6\%) had obesity class I, 990 (9.1\%) had obesity class II, and 755 (7.0\%) had obesity class III. Patients who had overweight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.27 [95\% CI: 1.11-1.46]), obesity class I (OR = 1.48 [95\% CI: 1.27-1.72]), obesity class II (OR = 1.89 [95\% CI: 1.56-2.28]), and obesity class III (OR = 2.31 [95\% CI: 1.88-2.85]) had an increased risk of requiring IMV. Underweight and obesity classes II and III were statistically associated with death (OR = 1.44 [95\% CI: 1.08-1.92]; OR = 1.25 [95\% CI: 1.03-1.52]; OR = 1.61 [95\% CI: 1.30-2.00], respectively). Among patients who were on IMV, BMI was not associated with inpatient deaths. Conclusions: Patients who are underweight or who have obesity are at risk for mechanical ventilation and death, suggesting that pulmonary complications (indicated by IMV) are a significant contributor for poor outcomes in COVID-19 infection.},
  pmid = {33128848}
}

@article{Kirson2022,
  title = {The Societal Economic Value of {{COVID-19}} Vaccines in the {{United States}}},
  author = {Kirson, Noam and Swallow, Elyse and Lu, Jessica and {Mesa-Frias}, Marco and Bookhart, Brahim and Maynard, Josie and Shivdasani, Yashna and Lefebvre, Patrick},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Journal of Medical Economics},
  volume = {25},
  number = {1},
  pages = {119--128},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  issn = {1941837X},
  doi = {10.1080/13696998.2022.2026118},
  pmid = {34989654},
  keywords = {cases avoided,coronavirus,COVID-19,life years saved,pandemic,societal value,vaccine}
}

@article{Knock2021,
  title = {Key Epidemiological Drivers and Impact of Interventions in the 2020 {{SARS-CoV-2}} Epidemic in {{England}}},
  author = {Knock, Edward S. and Whittles, Lilith K. and Lees, John A. and {Perez-Guzman}, Pablo N. and Verity, Robert and FitzJohn, Richard G. and Gaythorpe, Katy A.M. and Imai, Natsuko and Hinsley, Wes and Okell, Lucy C. and Rosello, Alicia and Kantas, Nikolas and Walters, Caroline E. and Bhatia, Sangeeta and Watson, Oliver J. and Whittaker, Charlie and Cattarino, Lorenzo and Boonyasiri, Adhiratha and Djaafara, Bimandra A. and Fraser, Keith and Fu, Han and Wang, Haowei and Xi, Xiaoyue and Donnelly, Christl A. and Jauneikaite, Elita and Laydon, Daniel J. and White, Peter J. and Ghani, Azra C. and Ferguson, Neil M. and Cori, Anne and Baguelin, Marc},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Science translational medicine},
  volume = {13},
  issn = {19466242},
  doi = {10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262},
  pmid = {34158411}
}

@article{Koesler2015,
  title = {Substitution {{Elasticities}} in a {{Constant Elasticity}} of {{Substitution Framework}} -- {{Empirical Estimates Using Nonlinear Least Squares}}},
  author = {Koesler, Simon and Schymura, Michael},
  year = {2015},
  journal = {Economic Systems Research},
  volume = {27},
  number = {1},
  pages = {101--121},
  issn = {14695758},
  doi = {10.1080/09535314.2014.926266},
  abstract = {Elasticities are key parameters for any economic analysis. Using the World-Input--Output Database, we estimate substitution elasticities for a three-level nested constant elasticity of substitution KLEM production structure using up to date nonlinear least squares estimation procedures. This allows us for the first time to use one coherent data set for the estimation process. Furthermore, it gives us the opportunity to derive elasticities from the same data which researchers can use to calibrate their models. On the basis of our estimations, we demonstrate that the practice of using Cobb--Douglas or Leontief production functions in economic models must be rejected for the majority of sectors. We provide a comprehensive set of estimated substitution elasticities covering a wide range of sectors. Our results suggest that no substantial change in input substitutability takes place during the time period we consider. Moreover, there is no substantial variation in substitution elasticities across regions.},
  keywords = {CES production function,Input substitutability,Policy evaluation,Substitution elasticity}
}

@article{kompasEffectsClimateChange2018,
  title = {The {{Effects}} of {{Climate Change}} on {{GDP}} by {{Country}} and the {{Global Economic Gains From Complying With}} the {{Paris Climate Accord}}},
  author = {Kompas, Tom and Pham, Van Ha and Che, Tuong Nhu},
  year = {2018},
  month = aug,
  journal = {Earth's Future},
  volume = {6},
  number = {8},
  pages = {1153--1173},
  issn = {2328-4277, 2328-4277},
  doi = {10.1029/2018EF000922},
  urldate = {2024-08-30},
  abstract = {Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a standard tool for policy analysis and forecasts of economic growth. Unfortunately, due to computational constraints, many CGE models are dimensionally small, aggregating countries into an often limited set of regions or using assumptions such as static price-level expectations, where next period's price is conditional only on current or past prices. This is a concern for climate change modeling, since the effects of global warming by country, in a fully disaggregated and global trade model, are needed, and the known future effects of global warming should be included in forward-looking forecasts for prices and profitability. This work extends a large dimensional intertemporal CGE trade model to account for the various effects of global warming (e.g., loss in agricultural productivity, sea level rise, and health effects) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and levels for 139 countries, by decade and over the long term, where producers look forward and adjust price expectations and capital stocks to account for future climate effects. The potential economic gains from complying with the Paris Accord are also estimated, showing that even with a limited set of possible damages from global warming, these gains are substantial. For example, with the comparative case of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (4{$^\circ$}C), the global gains from complying with the 2{$^\circ$}C target (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) are approximately US\$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, across all temperature ranges, are especially severe.           ,              Plain Language Summary             This work shows considerable global economic gains from complying with the Paris Climate Accord for 139 countries. For example, with the comparative case of a temperature increase of four degrees, the global gains from complying with the 2{$^\circ$} target are approximately US\$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia are especially severe.           ,              Key Points                                                                The global economic gains from complying with the Paris Climate Accord are shown to be substantial across 139 countries                                                     With the comparative case of RCP8.5 (4{$^\circ$}C), the global gains from complying with the 2{$^\circ$}C target (RCP4.5) are US\$17,489 billion per year                                                     The relative damages from not complying with the 2{$^\circ$}C target to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia are especially severe},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/UQZ34QUP/Kompas et al. - 2018 - The Effects of Climate Change on GDP by Country an.pdf}
}

@article{konigImpactCOVID19RelatedSchool2022,
  title = {The {{Impact}} of {{COVID-19-Related School Closures}} on {{Student Achievement}} --- {{A Meta-Analysis}}},
  author = {K{\"o}nig, Christoph and Frey, Andreas},
  year = {2022},
  volume = {41},
  number = {1},
  pages = {16--22},
  doi = {10.1111/emip.12495},
  keywords = {analysis,covid-19,meta,primary education,school closures,secondary,student achievement}
}

@article{Kostova2021,
  title = {The Role of Noncommunicable Diseases in the Pursuit of Global Health Security},
  author = {Kostova, Deliana and Richter, Patricia and Van Vliet, Gretchen and Mahar, Michael and Moolenaar, Ronald L.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Health Security},
  volume = {19},
  number = {3},
  pages = {288--301},
  issn = {23265108},
  doi = {10.1089/hs.2020.0121},
  pmid = {33961498},
  keywords = {Global health security,Noncommunicable diseases,Pandemic preparedness,Public health preparedness/response}
}

@article{Kremer1996,
  title = {Integrating {{Behavioral Choice Into}}},
  author = {Kremer, Michael},
  year = {1996},
  number = {May}
}

@article{Kristensen2022,
  title = {Obesity Augments the Disease Burden in {{COVID}}-19: {{Updated}} Data from an Umbrella Review},
  author = {Kristensen, Nickolai M. and Gribsholt, Sigrid B. and Andersen, Anton L. and Richelsen, Bj{\o}rn and Bruun, Jens M.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Clinical Obesity},
  volume = {12},
  number = {3},
  issn = {1758-8103},
  doi = {10.1111/cob.12508},
  abstract = {The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic calls for identification  of risk factors, which may help to identify people at enhanced risk for severe disease outcomes to improve treatment and, if possible, establish prophylactic measures. This study aimed to determine whether individuals with obesity compared to individuals with normal weight have an increased risk for severe COVID-19. We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library and critically reviewed the secondary literature using AMSTAR-2. We explored 27 studies. Findings indicate that individuals with obesity (body mass index\,{$\geq$}\,30\,kg/m(2) ), as compared to individuals without obesity, experience an increased risk for hospitalization (odds ratio [OR]: 1.40-2.45), admission to the intensive care unit (OR: 1.30-2.32), invasive mechanical ventilation (OR: 1.47-2.63), and the composite outcome 'severe outcome' (OR or risk ratio: 1.62-4.31). We found diverging results concerning death to COVID-19, but data trended towards increased mortality. Comparing individuals with obesity to individuals without obesity, findings suggested younger individuals ({$<$}60\,years) experience a higher risk of severe disease compared to older individuals ({$\geq$}60\,years). Obesity augments the severity of COVID-19 including a tendency to increased mortality and, thus, contributes to an increased disease burden, especially among younger individuals.},
  keywords = {body mass index,covid-19,obesity,outcomes,sars-cov-2,umbrella review}
}

@article{Ku2021,
  title = {The Association of Social Factors and Health Insurance Coverage with {{COVID}}-19 Vaccinations and Hesitancy, {{July}} 2021},
  author = {Ku, Leighton},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of General Internal Medicine},
  volume = {37},
  number = {2},
  pages = {409--414},
  publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
  issn = {1525-1497},
  doi = {10.1007/s11606-021-07213-6},
  isbn = {1160602107213}
}

@article{Kwok2020,
  title = {Obesity: {{A}} Critical Risk Factor in the {{COVID}} -19 Pandemic},
  author = {Kwok, See and Adam, Safwaan and Ho, Jan Hoong and Iqbal, Zohaib and Turkington, Peter and Razvi, Salman and Le Roux, Carel W. and Soran, Handrean and Syed, Akheel A.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Clinical Obesity},
  volume = {10},
  number = {6},
  pages = {1--11},
  issn = {1758-8103},
  doi = {10.1111/cob.12403},
  abstract = {Obesity is an emerging independent risk factor for susceptibility to and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Previous viral pandemics have shown that obesity, particularly severe obesity (BMI\,{$>$}\,40\,kg/m2 ), is associated with increased risk of hospitalization, critical care admission and fatalities. In this narrative review, we examine emerging evidence of the influence of obesity on COVID-19, the challenges to clinical management from pulmonary, endocrine and immune dysfunctions in individuals with obesity and identify potential areas for further research. We recommend that people with severe obesity be deemed a vulnerable group for COVID-19; clinical trials of pharmacotherapeutics, immunotherapies and vaccination should prioritize inclusion of people with obesity.},
  pmid = {32857454},
  keywords = {faculty of biology,manchester,medicine and health,uk,university of manchester}
}

@article{Lancsar2023,
  title = {Preparing for Future Pandemics: {{A}} Multi-national Comparison of Health and Economic Trade-offs},
  author = {Lancsar, Emily and Huynh, Elisabeth and Swait, Joffre and Breunig, Robert and Mitton, Craig and Kirk, Martyn and Donaldson, Cam},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Health Economics},
  number = {December 2021},
  pages = {1434--1452},
  issn = {1057-9230},
  doi = {10.1002/hec.4673},
  pmid = {36922370}
}

@article{lennoxInternationalJournalEducational2021,
  title = {International {{Journal}} of {{Educational Development UNICEF}} ' s Lessons Learned from the Education Response to the {{COVID-19}} Crisis and Reflections on the Implications for Education Policy},
  author = {Lennox, Janet and Reuge, Nicolas and Benavides, Francisco},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Educational Development},
  volume = {85},
  number = {May},
  pages = {102429},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {0738-0593},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ijedudev.2021.102429},
  keywords = {COVID-19PolicyEducation}
}

@article{Li2021,
  title = {Clinical Determinants of the Severity of {{COVID-19}}: {{A}} Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis},
  author = {Li, Xinyang and Zhong, Xianrui and Wang, Yongbo and Zeng, Xiantao and Luo, Ting and Liu, Qing},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  volume = {16},
  number = {5},
  pages = {e0250602},
  issn = {19326203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0250602},
  isbn = {1111111111},
  pmid = {33939733}
}

@article{Li2022,
  title = {Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of {{BNT162b2 COVID-19}} Booster Vaccination in the {{United States}}},
  author = {Li, Rui and Liu, Hanting and Fairley, Christopher K. and Zou, Zhuoru and Xie, Li and Li, Xinghui and Shen, Mingwang and Li, Yan and Zhang, Lei},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases},
  volume = {119},
  pages = {87--94},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {18783511},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.029},
  pmid = {35338008},
  keywords = {BNT162b2,Booster,Cost-effective analysis,COVID-19,Markov model}
}

@article{Li2022a,
  title = {{{mRNA-based COVID-19}} Booster Vaccination Is Highly Effective and Cost-Effective in {{Australia}}},
  author = {Li, Rui and Liu, Hanting and Fairley, Christopher K and Ong, Jason J and Guo, Yuming and Zou, Zhuoru and Xie, Li and Zhuang, Guihua and Li, Yan and Shen, Mingwang and Zhang, Lei},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {medRxiv}
}

@article{LivesLifeYearsWillingness2004,
  title = {Lives , {{Life-Years}} , and {{Willingness}} to {{Pay Author}} ( s ): {{Cass R}} . {{Sunstein Published}} by : {{Columbia Law Review Association}} , {{Inc}} . {{Stable URL}} : {{https://www.jstor.org/stable/4099352}} {{REFERENCES Linked}} References Are Available on {{JSTOR}} for This Article : Ref},
  year = {2004},
  volume = {104},
  number = {1},
  pages = {205--252}
}

@article{Lyngse2021,
  title = {{{SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission}} in {{Danish Households}}},
  author = {Lyngse, Frederik Plesner and Mortensen, Laust Hvas and Denwood, Matthew J and Christiansen, Lasse Engbo and M{\o}ller, Camilla Holten and Skov, Robert Leo and Spiess, Katja and Fomsgaard, Anders and Lassauni{\`e}re, Maria Magdalena and Rasmussen, Morten and Stegger, Marc and Nielsen, Claus and Sieber, Raphael Niklaus and Cohen, Arieh Sierra and M{\o}ller, Frederik Trier and Overvad, Maria and M{\o}lbak, K{\aa}re and Krause, Tyra Grove and Kirkeby, Carsten Thure},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {medRxiv}
}

@book{M.E.HalloranI.M.LonginiJr2010,
  title = {Design and {{Analysis}} of {{Vaccine Studies}}, Vol 18},
  author = {M.E. Halloran, I.M. LonginiJr, C.J. Struchiner},
  year = {2010},
  publisher = {Springer, NY},
  address = {New York}
}

@article{Ma2020,
  title = {Modern Pandemics: {{Recession}} and Recovery},
  author = {Ma, Chang and Rogers, John and Zhou, Sili},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {International Finance Discussion Paper},
  volume = {2020},
  number = {1295},
  issn = {1073-2500},
  doi = {10.17016/ifdp.2020.1295},
  abstract = {We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises: Time-series models for a large cross-section of countries indicate that real GDP growth falls by around two percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid, but output is still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative effects of pandemics are economically contagious-indirect effects on own-country GDP from affected trading partners are significant for both the initial GDP decline and the positive bounce back. However, the negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic.},
  keywords = {covid-19,e60,f40,fiscal policy,health crises,i10,jel classification,network,output loss,trade,unemployment}
}

@techreport{Madhav,
  title = {Estimated {{Future Mortality}} from {{Pathogens}} of {{Epidemic}} and {{Pandemic Potential}}},
  author = {Madhav, Nita K and Oppenheim, Ben and Stephenson, Nicole and Badker, Rinette and Jamison, Dean T and Lam, Cathine and Meadows, Amanda},
  year = {2023},
  number = {Working Paper 665},
  institution = {Center for Global Development},
  abstract = {Epidemics and pandemics pose a sporadic and sometimes severe threat to human health. How should policymakers prioritize preventing and preparing for such events, relative to other needs? To answer this question, we used computational epidemiology and extreme events modeling simulations to estimate the risk of future mortality from low frequency, high severity epidemics and pandemics in two important categories-respiratory diseases (in particular those caused by pandemic influenza viruses and novel coronaviruses) and viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) such as Ebola and Marburg virus diseases. We estimate a global annual average of 2.5 million deaths, attributed to respiratory pandemics. We estimate an annual average of 26,000 VHF deaths globally, 72 percent of which would be in Africa. Annual averages conceal vast year by year variation, and the reported analyses convey that variation-as well as variation across regions and by age. Our estimates suggest that both the frequency and severity of such events is higher than previously believed-and this is likely to be a lower bound estimate given the focus of this chapter on deaths caused by a subset of pathogens. Our simulations suggest that an event having the mortality level of COVID-19 should not be considered a "once in a century" risk, but rather occurring with an annual probability of 2-3 percent (that is, a one in 33-50-year event). Despite the substantial uncertainty in heavy-tail distributions, policymakers can use these estimates to develop risk-informed financing, prevention, preparedness, and response plans.},
  keywords = {coronavirus,Epidemics,influenza,pandemics,risk modeling},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/LTNPLBMP/Madhav et al. - 2023 - Estimated Future Mortality from Pathogens of Epide.pdf}
}

@article{Manderson2023,
  title = {Risk, Lifestyle and Non-communicable Diseases of Poverty},
  author = {Manderson, Lenore and Jewett, Sara},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Globalization and Health},
  volume = {19},
  number = {13},
  doi = {10.1186/s12992-023-00914-z},
  keywords = {commercial determinants,diseases of lifestyle,health inequities,lmic,non-communicable diseases,non-communicable diseases of poverty,nutritional transition,obesity,structural determinants}
}

@book{Manfredi2013,
  title = {Modeling the {{Interplay Between Human Behavior}} and the {{Spread}} of {{Infectious Diseases}}},
  author = {Manfredi, Piero and D'Onofrio, Alberto},
  year = {2013},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address = {New York},
  isbn = {978-1-4614-5473-1}
}

@article{Marani2021,
  title = {Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Novel Epidemics},
  author = {Marani, Marco and Katul, Gabriel G. and Pan, William K. and Parolari, Anthony J.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume = {118},
  number = {35},
  pages = {0--3},
  issn = {10916490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.2105482118},
  pmid = {34426498},
  keywords = {Epidemics,Extremes,Infectious diseases},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/C629YLV7/marani2021supp.pdf;/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/KI9P7YR8/marani2021.pdf}
}

@techreport{Marriott2021,
  title = {The {{Great Vaccine Robbery}}},
  author = {Marriott, Anna and Maitland, Alex},
  year = {2021},
  institution = {The People's Vaccine}
}

@article{Masters2017,
  title = {Return on Investment of Public Health Interventions: {{A}} Systematic Review},
  author = {Masters, Rebecca and Anwar, Elspeth and Collins, Brendan and Cookson, Richard and Capewell, Simon},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health},
  volume = {71},
  number = {8},
  pages = {827--834},
  issn = {14702738},
  doi = {10.1136/jech-2016-208141},
  pmid = {28356325}
}

@article{Mesle2021,
  title = {Estimated Number of Deaths Directly Averted in People 60 Years and Older as a Result of {{COVID-19}} Vaccination in the {{WHO European Region}}, {{December}} 2020 to {{November}} 2021},
  author = {Mesl{\'e}, Margaux MI and Brown, Jeremy and Mook, Piers and Hagan, Jos{\'e} and Pastore, Roberta and Bundle, Nick and Spiteri, Gianfranco and Ravasi, Giovanni and Nicolay, Nathalie and Andrews, Nick and Dykhanovska, Tetiana and Mossong, Jo{\"e}l and {Sadkowska-Todys}, Ma{\l}gorzata and Nikiforova, Raina and Riccardo, Flavia and Meijerink, Hinta and Mazagatos, Clara and Kyncl, Jan and McMenamin, Jim and Melillo, Tanya and Kaoustou, Stella and {L{\'e}vy-Bruhl}, Daniel and Haarhuis, Freek and Rich, Rivka and Kall, Meaghan and Nitzan, Dorit and Smallwood, Catherine and Pebody, Richard G},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Eurosurveillance},
  volume = {26},
  number = {47},
  publisher = {{European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)}},
  issn = {1025-496X},
  doi = {10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021}
}

@techreport{Mizunoya2021,
  title = {Education {{Disrupted}}: {{The}} Second Year of the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic and School Closures},
  author = {Mizunoya, Suguru and Avanesian, Garen and Mishra, Sakshi and Wang, Yixin and Yao, Haogen},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Florence, Italy},
  institution = {UNICEF}
}

@techreport{Moscoviz2022,
  title = {Learning Loss and Student Dropouts during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: {{A}} Review of the Evidence Two Years after Schools Shut Down},
  author = {Moscoviz, Laura and Evans, David K},
  year = {2022},
  pages = {Working Paper 609},
  address = {Washington, DC},
  institution = {Center for Global Development},
  keywords = {covid-19,dropout rates,learning loss,review}
}

@article{Mossong2008,
  title = {Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases},
  author = {Mossong, Jo{\"e}l and Hens, Niel and Jit, Mark and Beutels, Philippe and Auranen, Kari and Mikolajczyk, Rafael and Massari, Marco and Salmaso, Stefania and Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia and Wallinga, Jacco and Heijne, Janneke and {Sadkowska-Todys}, Malgorzata and Rosinska, Magdalena and Edmunds, W. John},
  year = {2008},
  journal = {PLoS Medicine},
  volume = {5},
  number = {3},
  pages = {0381--0391},
  issn = {15491277},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074},
  abstract = {Background: Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings: 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions: To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. {\copyright} 2008 Mossong et al.},
  pmid = {18366252}
}

@techreport{Munoz-najar2021,
  title = {Remote {{Learning During COVID-19}}: {{Lessons From Today}}, {{Principles}} for {{Tomorrow}}},
  author = {{Mu{\~n}oz-Najar}, Alberto and Gilberto, Alison and Hasan, Amer and Cobo, Crist{\'o}bal and Azevedo, Jo{\~a}o Pedro and Akmal, Maryam},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Washington, DC},
  institution = {The World Bank}
}

@article{Murray1997,
  title = {Understanding {{DALYs}}},
  author = {Murray, Christopher J.L. and Acharya, Arnab K.},
  year = {1997},
  journal = {Journal of Health Economics},
  volume = {16},
  number = {6},
  pages = {703--730},
  issn = {01676296},
  doi = {10.1016/S0167-6296(97)00004-0},
  abstract = {The measurement unit disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), used in recent years to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors on human populations, is grounded on cogent economic and ethical principles and can guide policies toward delivering more cost-effective and equitable health care. DALYs follow from a fairness principle that treats 'like as like' within an information set comprising the health conditions of individuals, differentiated solely by age and sex. The particular health state weights used to account for non-fatal health outcomes are derived through the application of various forms of the person trade-off.},
  pmid = {10176780},
  keywords = {Cost-effective analyses,Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs),Health care policy,Measurement of health status,Person trade-off,Quality of life years (QALYs)}
}

@techreport{Nath2017,
  title = {Transition and Dropout in Lower Income Countries: {{Case}} Studies of Secondary Education in {{Bangladesh}} and {{Uganda}}},
  author = {Nath, Samir Ranjan and Ferris, Denise and Kabir, Mohammed Mahbubul and Chowdhury, Tanjeeba and Hossain, Anwar},
  year = {2017},
  institution = {World Innovation Summit for Education}
}

@article{Nationala,
  title = {Polymod Survey}
}

@article{NationalAuditOffice2021,
  title = {Test and {{Trace}} in {{England}} Progress Update - {{Depart}} of {{Health}} \& {{Social Care}}.Pdf},
  author = {{National Audit Office}},
  year = {2021},
  number = {June},
  pages = {84},
  abstract = {This is the second of our reports on government's approach to test and trace services in England and it covers the period from the beginning of November 2020. It follows a December 2020 interim publication, which reported on NHS Test and Trace (NHST\&T) from its creation in May 2020 until October 2020.}
}

@techreport{NationalEconomicandDevelopmentAuthority2021,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} Pandemic to Cost {{PHP}} 41.4 {{T}} for the next 40 Years},
  author = {{National Economic and Development Authority}},
  year = {2021},
  institution = {{National Economic and Development Authority}}
}

@techreport{NationalEconomicandDevelopmentAuthority2021a,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} Pandemic to Cost {{PHP}} 41.4 {{T}} for the next 40 Years},
  author = {{National Economic and Development Authority}},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Pasig City},
  institution = {{National Economic and Development Authority}}
}

@article{NationallyRepresentativeSARSCoV2,
  title = {Nationally Representative {{SARS-CoV-2}} Antibody Prevalence Estimates after the First Epidemic Wave in {{Mexico}}}
}

@article{newmanGlobalCostsExtreme2023,
  title = {The Global Costs of Extreme Weather That Are Attributable to Climate Change},
  author = {Newman, Rebecca and Noy, Ilan},
  year = {2023},
  month = sep,
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  volume = {14},
  number = {1},
  pages = {6103},
  issn = {2041-1723},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1},
  urldate = {2024-07-16},
  abstract = {Abstract                            Extreme weather events lead to significant adverse societal costs. Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events, allows us to quantify the climate change-induced component of these costs. We collect data from all available EEA studies, combine these with data on the socio-economic costs of these events and extrapolate for missing data to arrive at an estimate of the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years. We find that US                                                   \$\${\textbackslash}\$\$\$                                        \$                                                                  143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. The majority (63\%), of this is due to human loss of life. Our results suggest that the frequently cited estimates of the economic costs of climate change arrived at by using Integrated Assessment Models may be substantially underestimated.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/HZUKFWJ4/Newman and Noy - 2023 - The global costs of extreme weather that are attri.pdf}
}

@article{Nielsen2010,
  title = {How Would You like Your Gain in Life Expectancy to Be Provided? {{An}} Experimental Approach},
  author = {Nielsen, Jytte Seested and Chilton, Susan and {Jones-Lee}, Michael and Metcalf, Hugh},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {J Risk Uncertain},
  volume = {41},
  pages = {195--218}
}

@techreport{NuclearThreatInitiativeNTI2021,
  title = {{{GHS Index Methodology}}},
  author = {{Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)} and {Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health} and {Economist Impact}},
  year = {2021},
  institution = {Economist Impact}
}

@techreport{officeofairandradiationRegulatoryImpactAnalysis2023,
  title = {Regulatory {{Impact Analysis}} of the {{Standards}} of {{Performance}} for {{New}}, {{Reconstructed}}, and {{Modified Sources}} and {{Emissions Guidelines}} for {{Existing Sources}}: {{Oil}} and {{Natural Gas Sector Climate Review}}},
  shorttitle = {Regulatory {{Impact Analysis}} of the {{Standards}} of {{Performance}} for {{New}}, {{Reconstructed}}, and {{Modified Sources}} and {{Emissions}}},
  author = {{Office of Air and Radiation}},
  year = {2023},
  number = {EPA-452/R-23-013},
  institution = {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/62JLAWYN/eo12866_oil-and-gas-nsps-eg-climate-review-2060-av16-ria-20231130.pdf;/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/BBQW8EKG/Office of Air and Radiation - 2023 - Regulatory Impact Analysis of the Standards of Per.pdf}
}

@article{OHearn2021,
  title = {Coronavirus Disease 2019 Hospitalizations Attributable to Cardiometabolic Conditions in the United States: {{A}} Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis},
  author = {O'Hearn, Meghan and Liu, Junxiu and Cudhea, Frederick and Micha, Renata and Mozaffarian, Dariush},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association},
  volume = {10},
  number = {5},
  pages = {1--27},
  issn = {20479980},
  doi = {10.1161/JAHA.120.019259},
  pmid = {33629868},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Diabetes mellitus,Heart failure,Hypertension,Obesity}
}

@article{Olivia2020,
  title = {Indonesia in the {{Time}} of {{Covid-19}}},
  author = {Olivia, Susan and Gibson, John and Nasrudin, Rus'an},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies},
  volume = {56},
  number = {2},
  pages = {143--174},
  issn = {14727234},
  doi = {10.1080/00074918.2020.1798581},
  abstract = {The Covid-19 virus has spread across the world with alarming speed, infecting millions and causing economic disruption on an unprecedented scale. In this survey, we examine the impact of the outbreak on the Indonesian economy, as well as the government's response to the public health crisis and its provisions for the emerging economic crisis. Indonesia's delay in responding to the health crisis while Covid-19 spread in neighbouring countries in January--February 2020 has been costly for the health of the population. The government's policy responses have so far been aimed at steadying the ship, addressing both the needs of the poor and the potentially poor (vulnerable) groups. At the time of writing, Covid-19 had not been tamed in Indonesia by any means. Hence, its implications for economic growth, jobs and welfare remained uncertain, as policy discussions were all about opening up the economy from virus-imposed restrictions across the country, under what has been termed the `new normal'.},
  keywords = {Covid-19,fiscal responses,Indonesia,macroeconomics,social protection}
}

@article{OMahony2021,
  title = {{{NICE}}'s {{Discounting Review}}: {{Clear Thinking}} on {{Rational Revision Meets Obstacle}} of {{Industrial Interests}}},
  author = {O'Mahony, James F. and Paulden, Mike and McCabe, Chris},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {PharmacoEconomics},
  volume = {39},
  number = {2},
  pages = {139--146},
  publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
  issn = {11792027},
  doi = {10.1007/s40273-020-00990-8},
  abstract = {The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recently published a review of discounting practice and theory as part of a consultation on its current methods guidelines. The review examines the case for revision or retention of current methods. The changes considered include eliminating favourable rates in certain special cases and the reduction of the base-case rate for costs and health effects from 3.5 to 1.5\%. The review also notes the potential need to reduce the cost-effectiveness threshold to accommodate a discount rate reduction, explaining that an agreement between the UK government and the pharmaceutical industry proscribes changing NICE's threshold range until the end of 2023. We believe NICE should be commended for a useful overview of the existing literature and relevant issues. We firmly endorse NICE's view that favourable discount rates are not a good way to apply a preference for certain interventions. Similarly, we support the option of reducing the discount rate to 1.5\%, which better accords with real government borrowing costs. We suggest further work to clarify the appropriate theoretical basis for the NICE's social discount rate and the sensitivity of the threshold to changes in discounting. The prospects of a necessary discount rate reduction appear to depend on whether a threshold reduction can be achieved within NICE's current range or if the range itself must be revised downwards. NICE has usefully informed the debate around discount rates. Ultimately, the path to a methodologically consistent and evidence-based revision of discounting depends on whether NICE needs to adjust the threshold too and if it is free to do so.},
  isbn = {0123456789},
  pmid = {33462758}
}

@article{Ord,
  title = {Should We Discount Future Health Benefits When Considering Cost-Effectiveness?},
  author = {Ord, Toby and Wiblin, Robert},
  journal = {Givingwhatwecan.Org},
  pages = {1--7}
}

@article{Otero2018,
  title = {Food Security, Obesity, and Inequality: {{Measuring}} the Risk of Exposure to the Neoliberal Diet},
  author = {Otero, Gerardo and G{\"u}rcan, Efe Can and Pechlaner, Gabriela and Liberman, Giselle},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Journal of Agrarian Change},
  volume = {18},
  number = {3},
  pages = {536--554},
  issn = {14710366},
  doi = {10.1111/joac.12252},
  abstract = {In reviewing the so-called obesity ``epidemic'', we critique the individual-focused explanations that also lead to interventions at this level. Instead, we suggest a different possibility: that food choices are structurally conditioned by income inequality, first; and, second, that we eat what huge oligopolistic food producers and distributors have on offer, which is in turn shaped or facilitated by neoliberal state intervention. To highlight the relevance of structural factors, we develop an index that measures the risk of exposure to what we call the ``neoliberal diet'' for low-to-middle-income working classes. Using this index, we compare the United States and Canada, advanced capitalist countries that are also agro-export powerhouses, with a group of countries including the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) plus Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. We conclude that state interventions need to refocus on reducing social inequality and the social determinants of food production and distribution. Transcending individualistic and consumption approaches will help us appreciate that the state, not the individual consumer, is best positioned to implement change when it comes to food ``choices'' and food production.},
  keywords = {class diets,emerging markets,inequality,neoliberal diet,obesity}
}

@article{Palacio-Mejia2022,
  title = {Leading Causes of Excess Mortality in {{Mexico}} during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic 2020--2021: {{A}} Death Certificates Study in a Middle-Income Country},
  author = {{Palacio-Mej{\'i}a}, Lina Sof{\'i}a and {Hern{\'a}ndez-{\'A}vila}, Juan Eugenio and {Hern{\'a}ndez-{\'A}vila}, Mauricio and {Dyer-Leal}, Dwight and Barranco, Arturo and {Quezada-S{\'a}nchez}, Amado D. and {Alvarez-Aceves}, Mariana and {Cort{\'e}s-Alcal{\'a}}, Ricardo and {Fern{\'a}ndez- Wheatley}, Jorge Leonel and {Ordo{\~n}ez-Hern{\'a}ndez}, Iliana and {Vielma-Orozco}, Edgar and {Murad{\'a}s-Troiti{\~n}o}, Mar{\'i}a de la Cruz and {Muro-Orozco}, Omar and {Navarro-Lu{\'e}vano}, Enrique and {Rodriguez-Gonz{\'a}lez}, Kathia and Gabastou, Jean Marc and {L{\'o}pez-Ridaura}, Ruy and {L{\'o}pez-Gatell}, Hugo},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Americas},
  volume = {13},
  pages = {100303},
  issn = {2667193X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2022.100303}
}

@techreport{Palanca-Tan2007,
  title = {The Value of Mortality Risk Reduction for Children in {{Metro Manila}}, Inferred from Parents Willingness to Pay for Dengue Vaccines},
  author = {{Palanca-Tan}, R},
  year = {2008},
  journal = {EEPSEA Research Report},
  number = {rr2008081},
  institution = {{Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia}},
  isbn = {1608-5434},
  keywords = {children,dengue,disease prevention,human diseases,immunization,risk reduction,vaccination}
}

@article{Pan2021,
  title = {Immunogenicity and Safety of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Inactivated Vaccine in Healthy Adults: {{Randomized}}, Double-Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Phase 1 and Phase 2 Clinical Trials},
  author = {Pan, Hong Xing and Liu, Jian Kai and Huang, Bao Ying and Li, Gui Fan and Chang, Xian Yun and Liu, Ya Fei and Wang, Wen Ling and Chu, Kai and Hu, Jia Lei and Li, Jing Xin and Zhu, Dan Dan and Wu, Jing Liang and Xu, Xiao Yu and Zhang, Li and Wang, Meng and Tan, Wen Jie and Huang, Wei Jin and Zhu, Feng Cai},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Chinese Medical Journal},
  volume = {134},
  number = {11},
  pages = {1289--1298},
  issn = {25425641},
  doi = {10.1097/CM9.0000000000001573},
  isbn = {0000000000},
  pmid = {33928916},
  keywords = {Immunogenicity,Inactivated vaccine,Neutralizing antibody,Safety,SARS-CoV-2}
}

@article{Pangallo2023,
  title = {The Unequal Effects of the Health--Economy Trade-off during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic},
  author = {Pangallo, Marco and Aleta, Alberto and {Rio-chanona}, R Maria and Pichler, Anton and {Mart{\'i}n-corral}, David and Chinazzi, Matteo and Lafond, Fran{\c c}ois and Ajelli, Marco and Moro, Esteban and Moreno, Yamir and Vespignani, Alessandro and Farmer, J Doyne},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-023-01747-x},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/PJTP55JT/Pangallo et al. - 2023 - The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-of.pdf}
}

@article{Parreno2023,
  title = {School Dropouts in the {{Philippines}}: Causes, Changes and Statistics},
  author = {Parre{\~n}o, Samuel John},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Sapienza},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--9},
  keywords = {education,philippines,school dropouts}
}

@techreport{Patrinos2018,
  title = {Returns to {{Investment}} in {{Education}}: {{A Decennial Review}} of the {{Global Literature}}},
  author = {Psacharopoulos, George and Patrinos, Harry Anthony},
  year = {2018},
  number = {Policy Research Working Paper; No. 8402},
  institution = {World Bank, Washington, DC.},
  abstract = {Returns to investment in education based on human capital theory have been estimated systematically since the 1950s. In the 60-plus year history of such estimates, there have been several compilations in the literature. This paper reviews and highlights the latest trends and patterns based on a database of 1,120 estimates in 139 countries. The review shows that the private average global rate of return to one extra year of schooling is about 9 percent a year and very stable over decades. Private returns to higher education have increased over time, raising issues of financing and equity. Social returns to schooling remain high, above 10 percent at the secondary and higher education levels. Women continue to experience higher average rates of return to schooling, showing that girls' education remains a priority. Returns are higher in low-income countries. Those employed in the private sector of the economy enjoy higher returns than those in the public sector, lending support to the productive value of education.}
}

@article{Patrinos2022,
  title = {An {{Analysis}} of {{COVID-19 Student Learning Loss}}},
  author = {Patrinos, Harry and Vegas, Emiliana and {Carter-Rau}, Rohan},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Educational Global Practice: Policy Research Working Paper 10033},
  volume = {10033},
  number = {May},
  pages = {1--31},
  abstract = {Abstract: COVID-19 caused significant disruption to the global education system. Early reviews of the first wave of lockdowns and school closures suggested significant learning loss in a few countries. A more recent and thorough analysis of recorded learning loss evidence documented since the beginning of the school closures between March 2020 and March 2022 finds even more evidence of learning loss. Most studies observed increases in inequality where certain demographics of students experienced learning losses more significant than others. But there are also outliers, countries that managed to limit the amount of loss. This review aims to consolidate all available evidence and documents the empirical findings. In fact, 36 robust studies were identified, the majority of which find learning losses, on average amounting to 0.17 of a standard deviation, equivalent to roughly a 1/2 years' worth of learning. These findings confirm that learning loss is real and significant, even compared to the first year. Further work is needed to increase the quantity of studies produced, and to ascertain the reasons for learning loss and in a few cases mitigation of loss.},
  keywords = {covid19,education,learning loss,systematic review}
}

@article{Patrinos2023,
  title = {The Longer Students Were out of School, the Less They Learned},
  author = {Patrinos, Harry Anthony},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Journal of School Choice},
  volume = {17},
  number = {2},
  pages = {161--175},
  publisher = {Routledge},
  issn = {1558-2159},
  doi = {10.1080/15582159.2023.2210941},
  keywords = {base,closures and emergency remote,closures during the pandemic,covid-19 led to school,duration of,ing,learn,the determinants of the,this paper analyzes school,using a unique data}
}

@article{Paynter2016,
  title = {Incorporating Transmission into Causal Models of Infectious Diseases for Improved Understanding of the Effect and Impact of Risk Factors},
  author = {Paynter, Stuart},
  year = {2016},
  journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
  volume = {183},
  number = {6},
  pages = {574--582},
  issn = {14766256},
  doi = {10.1093/aje/kwv234},
  pmid = {26940116},
  keywords = {communicable diseases,epidemiologic measurements,epidemiologic methods}
}

@article{Perrotta2021,
  title = {Behaviours and Attitudes in Response to the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: Insights from a Cross-National {{Facebook}} Survey},
  author = {Perrotta, Daniela and Grow, Andr{\'e} and Rampazzo, Francesco and Cimentada, Jorge and Del Fava, Emanuele and {Gil-Clavel}, Sofia and Zagheni, Emilio},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {EPJ Data Science},
  volume = {10},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--13},
  publisher = {The Author(s)},
  issn = {21931127},
  doi = {10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00270-1},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Facebook surveys,Human behaviour,Public health policy}
}

@misc{PhilippineStatisticsAuthority2018,
  title = {Family {{Income}} and {{Expenditure Survey}}},
  author = {{Philippine Statistics Authority}},
  year = {2018}
}

@misc{PhilippineStatisticsAuthority2018a,
  title = {Labor {{Force Survey}}},
  author = {{Philippine Statistics Authority}},
  year = {2018}
}

@misc{PhilippineStatisticsAuthority2021,
  title = {Proportion of {{Poor Filipinos Registered}} at 23.7 {{Percent}} in the {{First Semester}} of 2021},
  author = {{Philippine Statistics Authority}},
  year = {2021}
}

@article{Philipson1996,
  title = {Private Vaccination and Public Health: {{An}} Empirical Examination for {{U}}.{{S}}. Measles},
  author = {Philipson, Tomas},
  year = {1996},
  journal = {Journal of Human Resources},
  volume = {31},
  number = {3},
  pages = {611--630},
  issn = {0022166X},
  doi = {10.2307/146268},
  abstract = {This paper investigates the degree to which the occurrence of vaccine-preventable diseases affects vaccination efforts against such diseases. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey on measles vaccinations in the United States between 1984 and 1990, the paper shows there is strong evidence that the prevalence of measles in the respondent's state of residence reduces the age in months at which the first measles vaccination occurs. The paper argues that the more prevention of infectious disease responds to prevalence in this manner, the less it responds to price, thereby lowering the role of Pigouvian price subsidies and other demand-stimulating public health measures aimed at solving the under-provision of vaccines and other preventive efforts with positive external effects.}
}

@misc{Pianella2023,
  title = {Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Models for Pandemic Mitigation Policies: {{A}} Systematic Review (Manuscript in Preparation)},
  author = {Pianella, Matteo and Doohan, Patrick and Parchani, Kanchan and Haw, David and Johnson, Rob and Morgenstern, Christian and Forchini, Giovanni and Patouillard, Edith and Hauck, Katharina},
  year = {2023}
}

@article{Piernas2022,
  title = {Associations of {{BMI}} with {{COVID-19}} Vaccine Uptake, Vaccine Effectiveness, and Risk of Severe {{COVID-19}} Outcomes after Vaccination in {{England}}: A Population-Based Cohort Study},
  author = {Piernas, Carmen and Patone, Martina and Astbury, Nerys M. and Gao, Min and Sheikh, Aziz and Khunti, Kamlesh and {Shankar-Hari}, Manu and Dixon, Sharon and Coupland, Carol and Aveyard, Paul and {Hippisley-Cox}, Julia and Jebb, Susan A.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology},
  volume = {10},
  number = {8},
  pages = {571--580},
  publisher = {The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license},
  issn = {22138595},
  doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00158-9},
  pmid = {35780805}
}

@article{Popkin2022,
  title = {The Nutrition Transition to a Stage of High Obesity and Noncommunicable Disease Prevalence Dominated by Ultra-Processed Foods Is Not Inevitable},
  author = {Popkin, Barry M. and Ng, Shu Wen},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Obesity Reviews},
  volume = {23},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1--18},
  issn = {1467789X},
  doi = {10.1111/obr.13366},
  abstract = {The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.},
  pmid = {34632692},
  keywords = {double burden of malnutrition,front-of-package labeling,Nutrition Transition,obesity,taxation,ultra-processed food}
}

@article{Prem2017,
  title = {Projecting Social Contact Matrices in 152 Countries Using Contact Surveys and Demographic Data},
  author = {Prem, Kiesha and Cook, Alex R. and Jit, Mark},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
  volume = {13},
  number = {9},
  pages = {e1005697.},
  issn = {15491277},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005697},
  isbn = {1111111111}
}

@article{Prem2021,
  title = {Projecting Contact Matrices in 177 Geographical Regions: {{An}} Update and Comparison with Empirical Data for the {{COVID-19}} Era},
  author = {Prem, Kiesha and {van Zandvoort}, Kevin and Klepac, Petra and Eggo, Rosalind M. and Davies, Nicholas G. and Cook, Alex R. and Jit, Mark},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
  volume = {17},
  number = {7},
  issn = {15537358},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009098},
  abstract = {Mathematical models have played a key role in understanding the spread of directly-transmissible infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the effectiveness of public health responses. As the risk of contracting directly-transmitted infections depends on who interacts with whom, mathematical models often use contact matrices to characterise the spread of infectious pathogens. These contact matrices are usually generated from diary-based contact surveys. However, the majority of places in the world do not have representative empirical contact studies, so synthetic contact matrices have been constructed using more widely available setting-specific survey data on household, school, classroom, and workplace composition combined with empirical data on contact patterns in Europe. In 2017, the largest set of synthetic contact matrices to date were published for 152 geographical locations. In this study, we update these matrices with the most recent data and extend our analysis to 177 geographical locations. Due to the observed geographic differences within countries, we also quantify contact patterns in rural and urban settings where data is available. Further, we compare both the 2017 and 2020 synthetic matrices to out-of-sample empirically-constructed contact matrices, and explore the effects of using both the empirical and synthetic contact matrices when modelling physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the synthetic contact matrices show qualitative similarities to the contact patterns in the empirically-constructed contact matrices. Models parameterised with the empirical and synthetic matrices generated similar findings with few differences observed in age groups where the empirical matrices have missing or aggregated age groups. This finding means that synthetic contact matrices may be used in modelling outbreaks in settings for which empirical studies have yet to be conducted.},
  isbn = {1111111111},
  pmid = {34310590}
}

@article{Psacharopoulos2018,
  title = {Returns to Investment in Education: A Decennial Review of the Global Literature},
  author = {Psacharopoulos, George and Patrinos, Harry Anthony},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Education Economics},
  volume = {26},
  number = {5},
  pages = {445--458},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  issn = {14695782},
  doi = {10.1080/09645292.2018.1484426},
  keywords = {investments in education,Returns to schooling}
}

@techreport{Psacharopoulos2021,
  title = {Lost {{Wages}}: {{The Covid-19 Cost}} of {{School Closures}}},
  author = {Psacharopoulos, George and Collis, Victoria and Patrinos, Harry Anthony and Vegas, Emiliana},
  year = {2020},
  institution = {World Bank Group},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3682955},
  abstract = {Social distancing requirements associated with COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to school closures. In mid-April, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization reported that 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting more than 90 percent of the world's learners: 1.5 billion children and young people. The closures are expected to reduce learning and will lead to future losses in earnings and labor productivity. Schooling attainment leads to increased earnings. What is not known is how much earnings will decline due to the school closures. Starting with the fact that every year of schooling equates to 8-9 percent in additional future earnings, this paper uses the number of months of education closures to estimate the loss in marginal future earnings. The findings show that the school closures reduce future earnings, and this loss is equivalent to 15 percent of future gross domestic product. The school closures will have a large and long-lasting impact on the earnings of future workers. It is also likely that students from low-income countries will be affected most. These estimates are conservative, assuming that the closures will end after four months and school quality will not suffer.}
}

@article{Psacharopoulos2021a,
  title = {The {{COVID-19}} Cost of School Closures in Earnings and Income across the World},
  author = {Psacharopoulos, George and Collis, Victoria and Patrinos, Harry Anthony and Vegas, Emiliana},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Comparative Education Review},
  volume = {65},
  number = {2},
  isbn = {4265546680000}
}

@techreport{Purnamasari2021,
  title = {Education Services during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic: {{Indonesia COVID-19 Observatory Brief}}},
  author = {Purnamasari, Ririn Salwa and Ali, Rabia},
  year = {2021},
  number = {8},
  institution = {The World Bank, Washington, DC}
}

@article{Ramgobin2021,
  title = {Papering over the Cracks: {{COVID-19}}'s Amplification of the Failures of Employer-Based Health Insurance Coverage},
  author = {Ramgobin, Devyani and Mcclafferty, Brendan and Kramer, Courtney and Mcgillen, Brian and Jain, Rohit},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of Community Hospital Internal Medicine Perspectives},
  volume = {11},
  number = {1},
  pages = {107--110},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  doi = {10.1080/20009666.2020.1851869},
  keywords = {Covid-19,health economics,Health insurance,Medicaid}
}

@book{Rank2021,
  title = {Poorly {{Understood}}: {{What America Gets Wrong About Poverty}}},
  author = {Rank, Mark Robert and Eppard, Lawrence M. and Bullock, Heather E.},
  year = {2021},
  publisher = {Oxford University Press},
  address = {New York}
}

@article{Recalde2021,
  title = {Body Mass Index and Risk of {{COVID-19}} Diagnosis, Hospitalization, and Death: {{A}} Cohort Study of 2 524 926 {{Catalans}}},
  author = {Recalde, Martina and Pistillo, Andrea and {Fernandez-Bertolin}, Sergio and Roel, Elena and Aragon, Maria and Freisling, Heinz and {Prieto-Alhambra}, Daniel and Burn, Edward and {Duarte-Salles}, Talita},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism},
  volume = {106},
  number = {12},
  pages = {E5030-E5042},
  issn = {19457197},
  doi = {10.1210/clinem/dgab546},
  pmid = {34297116},
  keywords = {adiposity,electronic health records,fatality,hospitalization,obesity,SARS-CoV-2}
}

@article{Recch2023,
  title = {Education Data Needs and Challenges for Building Back from {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {Recch, Filipe and Petherick, Anna and Hinton, Rachel and Nagesh, Radhika and Furst, Rodrigo and Goldszmidt, Rafael},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Epidemics},
  volume = {43},
  number = {April 2022},
  pages = {100673},
  publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
  issn = {18780067},
  doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100673},
  abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has led governments worldwide to impose extensive restrictions on citizens, some of which may have long-term impact after their removal. Education is arguably the policy domain where closure policies are anticipated to lead to greatest lasting loss, in this case learning loss. Currently, limited data exists from which researchers and practitioners can draw insightful conclusions about how to remedy the problem. In this paper, we outline the global pattern in pandemic school-closure periods and illustrate data needs through the examples drawn from Brazil and India, two large countries which experienced prolonged periods of school closures during the pandemic. We conclude with a series of recommendations for building an improved data environment at government, school and household levels, to serve the building back agenda in education, and to provide better opportunities for evidence-based policymaking thereafter.},
  pmid = {36863099},
  keywords = {Brazil,COVID,Education,EMIS,India,Inequality,Learning,School}
}

@article{Reddy2021,
  title = {Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of {{COVID-19}} Vaccination in {{South Africa}}},
  author = {Reddy, Krishna P. and Fitzmaurice, Kieran P. and Scott, Justine A. and Harling, Guy and Lessells, Richard J. and Panella, Christopher and Shebl, Fatma M. and Freedberg, Kenneth A. and Siedner, Mark J.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  volume = {12},
  number = {6238},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {20411723},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26557-5},
  pmid = {34716349}
}

@article{rennertSocialCostCarbon2022,
  title = {The {{Social Cost}} of {{Carbon}}: {{Advances}} in {{Long-Term Probabilistic Projections}} of {{Population}}, {{GDP}}, {{Emissions}}, and {{Discount Rates}}},
  shorttitle = {The {{Social Cost}} of {{Carbon}}},
  author = {Rennert, Kevin and Prest, Brian C. and Pizer, William A. and Newell, Richard G. and Anthoff, David and Kingdon, Cora and Rennels, Lisa and Cooke, Roger and Raftery, Adrian E. and {\v S}ev{\v c}{\'i}kov{\'a}, Hana and Errickson, Frank},
  year = {2022},
  month = sep,
  journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
  volume = {2021},
  number = {2},
  pages = {223--305},
  issn = {1533-4465},
  doi = {10.1353/eca.2022.0003},
  urldate = {2024-08-29},
  langid = {english}
}

@techreport{ReportJointCongressional,
  title = {Report to the {{Joint Congressional Oversight Committee}}}
}

@article{Reyes-Sanchez2021,
  title = {Fraction of {{COVID-19}} Hospitalizations and Deaths Attributable to Chronic Diseases},
  author = {{Reyes-S{\'a}nchez}, Francisco and {Basto-Abreu}, Ana and {Torres-Alvarez}, Rossana and {Canto-Osorio}, Francisco and {Gonz{\'a}lez-Morales}, Romina and Dyer, Dwight and {L{\'o}pez-Ridaura}, Ruy and {Zaragoza-Jim{\'e}nez}, Christian A. and Rivera, Juan A. and {Barrientos-Guti{\'e}rrez}, Tonatiuh},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Preventive Medicine},
  volume = {155},
  number = {October 2021},
  pages = {106917},
  issn = {00917435},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106917}
}

@book{Reyes2022,
  title = {The {{Philippines}}' {{Response}} to the {{COVID-19 Pandemic}}: {{Learning}} from {{Experience}} and {{Emerging Stronger}} to {{Future Shocks}}},
  author = {Reyes, Celia M},
  year = {2022},
  publisher = {Philippine Institute for Development Studies},
  address = {Quezon City}
}

@techreport{risingWhatWillClimate2022,
  title = {What Will Climate Change Cost the {{UK}}? {{Risks}}, Impacts and Mitigation for the Netzero Transition},
  author = {Rising, James and Dietz, Simon and Dumas, Marion and {Ritika Khurana} and Kikstra, Jarmo and Lenton, Timothy and Linsenmeier, Manuel and Smith, Chris and Taylor, Charlotte and Ward, Bob},
  year = {2022},
  address = {London},
  institution = {{Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science}},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/9EX2BNJJ/_.pdf;/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/MH787VTU/Appendix.pdf}
}

@article{Robinson2019,
  title = {Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Global Benefit-Cost Analysis},
  author = {Robinson, Lisa A. and Hammitt, James K. and O'Keeffe, Lucy},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
  volume = {10},
  pages = {15--50},
  issn = {21522812},
  doi = {10.1017/bca.2018.26},
  abstract = {The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.},
  keywords = {low- and middle-income countries,value of mortality risk reductions,value per statistical life,willingness to pay}
}

@article{Robinson2019a,
  title = {Valuing {{Children}}'s {{Fatality Risk Reductions}}},
  author = {Robinson, Lisa A. and Raich, William J. and Hammitt, James K. and O'Keeffe, Lucy},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
  volume = {10},
  number = {2},
  pages = {156--177},
  issn = {21522812},
  doi = {10.1017/bca.2019.10},
  abstract = {In benefit-cost analysis, fatality risk reductions are usually valued based on estimates of adults' willingness to pay for changes in their own risks, regardless of whether the risk reduction accrues to adults or children. This approach reflects the relatively large number of valuation studies that address adults; however, the literature on children is growing. We review these studies, focusing on those that estimate values for both adults and children using a consistent approach to limit the effects of between-study variability. We rely on explicit selection criteria to identify studies that measure reasonably comparable outcomes and are candidates for application to analyses of U.S. policies. The ratio of values for children to values for adults ranges from 0.6 to 2.9; however, most estimates are greater than 1.5. Although some studies suggest that the divergence between child and adult values decreases as the child ages, this finding is not universal. We conclude that analysts should test the sensitivity of their results to the use of higher values for children than adults. Additional empirical research is needed to support more precise estimates of the variation in values by age that can be featured in the primary analysis.},
  keywords = {benefit-cost analysis,health risk valuation,regulation,value per statistical life,willingness to pay}
}

@article{Robinson2021,
  title = {Do the Benefits of {{COVID-19}} Policies Exceed the Costs? {{Exploring}} Uncertainties in the Age--{{VSL}} Relationship},
  author = {Robinson, Lisa A. and Sullivan, Ryan and Shogren, Jason F.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Risk Analysis},
  volume = {41},
  number = {5},
  pages = {761--770},
  issn = {15396924},
  doi = {10.1111/risa.13561},
  pmid = {32677076},
  keywords = {Benefit-cost analysis,COVID-19,pandemic,value per statistical life,VSL,willingness to pay}
}

@article{Robinson2022,
  title = {Reference {{Case Guidelines}} for {{Benefit-Cost Analysis}} in {{Global Health}} and {{Development}}},
  author = {Robinson, Lisa A. and Hammitt, James K. and Cecchini, Michele and Chalkidou, Kalipso and Claxton, Karl and Cropper, Maureen L. and Eozenou, Patrick and {de Ferranti}, David and Deolalikar, Anil B. and {Campos Guanais de Aguiar}, Frederico and Jamison, Dean T. and Kwon, Soonman and Lauer, Jeremy Addison and O'Keeffe, Lucy and Walker, Damian and Whittington, Dale and Wilkinson, Thomas and Wilson, David and Wong, Brad},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
  number = {May},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4015886},
  abstract = {Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) and other forms of economic evaluation are powerful tools, encouraging the systematic collection and assessment of the evidence needed to support sound policy decisions. In low and middle-income countries, where resources are especially scarce and needs are very great, such decisions are particularly difficult and economic evaluations can be especially useful. If not well conducted and clearly reported, however, these studies can lead to erroneous conclusions. Differences in analytic methods and assumptions can also obscure important differences in policy impacts. Recognizing these challenges, the Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting the development of reference case guidelines. These guidelines are intended to increase the comparability of economic evaluations, improve their quality, and expand their use. The resulting analyses will promote understanding of the difficult trade-offs faced within and across sectors and support decisions by the Gates Foundation, other nongovernmental organizations, government agencies, and individuals. In this summary, we provide background information on this effort then describe the recommendations that are discussed in more detail in the guidelines.}
}

@article{Rosenberg2021,
  title = {Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in {{New York State}}},
  author = {Rosenberg, Eli and Dorabwila, Vajeera and Easton, Delia and Bauer, Ursula and Kumar, Jessica and Hoen, Rebecca and Hoefer, Dina and Wu, Meng and Lutterloh, Emily and Conroy, Mary Beth and Greene, Danielle and Zucker, Howard A},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {New England Journal of Medicine},
  volume = {386},
  doi = {10.1056/NEJMoa2116063}
}

@article{RoyAnderson2020,
  title = {{{SARS-CoV-2}}: {{Where}} Do People Acquire Infection and 'Who Infects Whom'?},
  author = {{Roy Anderson} and {Carolin Vegvari} and {Rosemary Maddren} and {Rebecca Baggaley}},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {The Royal Society},
  number = {December 2020},
  pages = {1--22},
  abstract = {Executive summary Where people acquire infection depends on many factors, including changes over time induced by social distancing measures (non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)) in place at any point in time, prevailing compliance patterns to such measures, variation between geographical locations, and confounding variables such as age, gender, and cultural differences between social or ethnic groups within a defined population. The available UK data suggests that most transmission occurs in household settings, with frequency related to social interactions within households. However, where most people acquire infection, may not be the most important issue in terms of controlling spread. Key factors in limiting onward transmission are who seeds the household setting, and where this index case acquired infection? Data sources for gaining a better understanding of where people acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection are contact tracing, household studies and whole genome sequencing (WGS) of the virus, to ascertain who infects whom. Data sources and publications on these topics are limited at present in the UK. Data are limited in the UK on where index cases in households acquire infection, but the information collated by Public Health England (PHE) suggest that much heterogeneity pertains, depending on a variety of social and demographic factors. Activity related to shopping and social gatherings in restaurants and pubs generate the most infections, although many other factors have influence. Given data limitations-this observation should be treated with caution. The role of test, trace and isolate in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic The test, trace and isolate (TTI) system as a tool to control spread, and as a source of epidemiological information, has limitations when viral spread is extensive given the enormous workload involved in tracing contacts. It is best employed to control transmission during phases when rates of infection are low, as well illustrated in many East Asian countries. An illustration of the challenges facing TTI in the UK is provided by data collected in the first week of November 2020. Of those estimated by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to have been infected that week, only 30\% were reached to ask for information on close contacts, and only 18\% of the estimated close contacts of those newly infected that week were asked to self-isolate. Perhaps only 9\% of these contacts did so fully, due to reported poor compliance issues in certain demographic and social groups. These numbers are clearly far too low to have a major impact on viral transmission or to provide a representative national picture of spread and control measure impact.}
}

@article{Rubin2021,
  title = {{{COVID-19 Vaccine Makers Plan}} for {{Annual Boosters}}, but {{It}}'s {{Not Clear They}}'ll {{Be Needed}}},
  author = {Rubin, Rita},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Journal of the American Medical Association},
  volume = {326},
  number = {22},
  pages = {2247--2249},
  issn = {15383598},
  doi = {10.1001/jama.2021.21291},
  pmid = {34817538}
}

@article{Rubin2021a,
  title = {Testing When Symptomatic, and Staying at Home with Influenza-like Illness, during Autumn and Winter},
  author = {Rubin, G.J. and {et al.}},
  year = {2021},
  pages = {1--15}
}

@article{Rubin2022,
  title = {Do People with Symptoms of an Infectious Illness Follow Advice to Stay at Home? {{Evidence}} from a Series of Cross-Sectional Surveys about Presenteeism in the {{UK}}},
  author = {Rubin, G. James and Smith, Louise E. and Amlot, Richard and Fear, Nicola T. and Potts, Henry and Michie, Susan},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {BMJ Open},
  volume = {12},
  number = {5},
  issn = {20446055},
  doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2021-060511},
  pmid = {35636788},
  keywords = {COVID-19,infection control,public health}
}

@techreport{Rubinstein2022,
  title = {An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of {{COVID-19 NPIs}} in {{Argentina}}},
  author = {Rubinstein, Adolfo and Yeyati, Eduardo Levy and Osornio, Alejandro L{\'o}pez and Filippini, Federico and Santoro, Adrian and Cejas, Cintia and Bardach, Ariel and Palacios, Alfredo and Argento, Fernando and Balivian, Jamile and Augustovski, Federico and Riviere, Andr{\'e}s Pich{\'o}n},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {CID Faculty Working Paper Series},
  volume = {421},
  address = {Cambridge, MA},
  institution = {Harvard University},
  isbn = {6507247197}
}

@article{Sah2022,
  title = {Estimating the Impact of Vaccination on Reducing {{COVID-19}} Burden in the {{United States}}: {{December}} 2020 to {{March}} 2022},
  author = {Sah, Pratha and Vilches, Thomas N and Pandey, Abhishek and Schneider, Eric C and Moghadas, Seyed M and Galvani, Alison P},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Journal of Global Health},
  volume = {12},
  pages = {03062},
  issn = {2047-2978},
  doi = {10.7189/jogh.12.03062}
}

@article{Saluja2020,
  title = {The Impact of Physician Migration on Mortality in Low and Middle-Income Countries: {{An}} Economic Modelling Study},
  author = {Saluja, Saurabh and Rudolfson, Niclas and Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard and Meara, John G. and Shrime, Mark G.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {BMJ Global Health},
  volume = {5},
  issn = {20597908},
  doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001535},
  isbn = {2019001535},
  keywords = {epidemiology,health economics,health policies and all other topics,medical demography}
}

@misc{SavetheChildren2022,
  title = {Philippines: Statement as One of the World's Longest {{COVID-19}} Related School Closures Ends},
  author = {{Save the Children}},
  year = {2022},
  address = {Manila}
}

@techreport{Sawada2021,
  title = {{{ADBI Working Paper}} 1251: {{Macroeconomic}} Impact of {{COVID-19}} in Developing {{Asia}}},
  author = {Sawada, Yasuyuki and Sumulong, Lea},
  year = {2021},
  number = {1251},
  address = {Tokyo},
  institution = {Asian Development Bank Institute},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3912360},
  isbn = {8133593557},
  keywords = {COVID-19,economic impact,policy response}
}

@article{Sawadogo2022,
  title = {Overweight and Obesity as Risk Factors for {{COVID-19-associated}} Hospitalisations and Death: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis},
  author = {Sawadogo, Wendemi and Tsegaye, Medhin and Gizaw, Andinet and Adera, Tilahun},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {BMJ Nutrition, Prevention \& Health},
  volume = {5},
  number = {1},
  pages = {10--18},
  doi = {10.1136/bmjnph-2021-000375},
  abstract = {Objective To quantify the current weight of evidence of the association between overweight and obesity as risk factors for COVID-19-related hospitalisations (including hospital admission, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation) and death, and to assess the magnitude of the association and the potential dose--response relationships. Design PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Sciences, WHO COVID-19 database and Google Scholar were used to identify articles published up to 20 July 2021. Peer-reviewed studies reporting adjusted estimates of the association between overweight or obesity and COVID-19 outcomes were included. Three authors reviewed the articles and agreed. The quality of eligible studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the combined effects. Results A total of 208 studies with 3 550 997 participants from over 32 countries were included in this meta-analysis. Being overweight was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisations (OR 1.19, 95\% CI 1.12 to 1.28, n=21 studies), but not death (OR 1.02, 95\% CI 0.92 to 1.13, n=21). However, patients with obesity were at increased risk of both COVID-19-related hospitalisations (OR 1.72, 95\% CI 1.62 to 1.84, n=58) and death (OR 1.25, 95\% CI 1.19 to 1.32, n=77). Similarly, patients with extreme obesity were at increased risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisations (OR 2.53, 95\% CI 1.67 to 3.84, n=12) and death (OR 2.06, 95\% CI 1.76 to 3.00, n=19). There was a linear dose--response relationship between these obesity categories and COVID-19 outcomes, but the strength of the association has decreased over time. Conclusion Being overweight increases the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisations but not death, while obesity and extreme obesity increase the risk of both COVID-19-related hospitalisations and death. These findings suggest that prompt access to COVID-19 care, prioritisation for COVID-19 vaccination and other preventive measures are warranted for this vulnerable group. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information.}
}

@article{Sax2018,
  title = {Seasonal Adjustment by {{X-13ARIMA-SEATS}} in {{R}}},
  author = {Sax, Christoph and Eddelbuettel, Dirk},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
  volume = {87},
  number = {11},
  issn = {15487660},
  doi = {10.18637/jss.v087.i11},
  abstract = {Seasonal is a powerful interface between R and X-13ARIMA-SEATS, the seasonal adjustment software developed by the United States Census Bureau. It offers access to almost all features of X-13, including seasonal adjustment via the X-11 and SEATS approaches, automatic ARIMA model search, outlier detection, and support for user-defined holiday variables such as the Chinese New Year or Indian Diwali. The required X-13 binaries are provided by the x13binary package, which facilitates a fully-automatic installation on most platforms. A demo website (at http://www.seasonal.website/) supports interactive modeling of custom data. A graphical user interface in the seasonalview package offers the same functionality locally. X-13 can handle monthly, quarterly or bi-annual time series.},
  keywords = {Seasonal adjustment,Time series,X-13ARIMA-SEATS R}
}

@book{Schady2023,
  title = {Collapse and {{Recovery}}: {{How}} the {{COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital}} and {{What}} to {{Do}} about {{It}}},
  author = {Schady, Norbert and Holla, Alaka and Sabarwal, Shwetlena and Silva, Joana and Yi Chang, Andres},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It},
  publisher = {The World Bank},
  address = {Washington, DC},
  doi = {10.1596/978-1-4648-1901-8},
  abstract = {Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has been an enormous shock to mortality, economies, and daily life. But what has received insufficient attention is the impact of the pandemic on the accumulation of human capital---the health, education, and skills---of young people. How large was the setback, and how far are we still from a recovery? Collapse and Recovery estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth and discusses the urgent actions needed to reverse the damage. It shows that there was a collapse of human capital and that, unless that collapse is remedied, it is a time bomb for countries. Specifically, the report documents alarming declines in cognitive and social-emotional development among young children, which could translate into a 25 percent reduction in their earnings as adults. It finds that 1 billion children in low- and middle-income countries missed at least one year of in-person schooling. And despite enormous efforts in remote learning, children did not learn during the unprecedentedly long school closures, which could reduce future lifetime earnings around the world by US\$21 trillion. The report quantifies the dramatic drops in employment and skills among youth that resulted from the pandemic as well as the substantial increase in the number of youth neither employed nor enrolled in education or training. In all of these age groups, the impacts of the pandemic were consistently worse for children from poorer backgrounds. These losses call for immediate action. The good news is that evidence-based policies can recover these losses. Collapse and Recovery reviews governments' responses to the pandemic, assessing why there was a collapse in human capital accumulation, what was missing in the policy architecture to protect human capital during the crisis, and how governments can better prepare to withstand future shocks. It offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses in human capital---programs that will end up paying for themselves in the long term. To better prepare for future shocks such as climate change and wars, the report emphasizes the need for solutions that bring health, education, and social protection programs together in an integrated human development system. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. The time to act is now.},
  isbn = {978-1-4648-1901-8}
}

@article{Schreyer2001,
  title = {Measuring Productivity},
  author = {Schreyer, Paul and Pilat, Dirk},
  year = {2001},
  journal = {OECD Economic Studies},
  number = {33},
  pages = {127--170}
}

@techreport{SecretariadeEconomia2020,
  title = {{{MODIFICACI{\'O}N}} a La {{Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-051-SCFI}}/{{SSA1-2010}}, {{Especificaciones}} Generales de Etiquetado Para Alimentos y Bebidas No Alcoh{\'o}licas Preenvasados-{{Informaci{\'o}n}} Comercial y Sanitaria, Publicada El 5 de Abril de 2010},
  author = {{Secretar{\'i}a de Econom{\'i}a}},
  year = {2020},
  institution = {Secretar{\'i}a de Econom{\'i}a}
}

@techreport{SecretariadeGobernacion2013,
  title = {Ley Del Impuesto Especial Sobre Producci{\'o}n y Servicios},
  author = {{Secretar{\'i}a de Gobernaci{\'o}n}},
  year = {2013},
  institution = {Secretar{\'i}a de Gobernaci{\'o}n}
}

@misc{SecretariadeSalud,
  title = {Comunicados {{T{\'e}cnicos Diarios COVID}} 19},
  author = {{Direcci{\'o}n General de Epidemiolog{\'i}a}},
  year = {2022},
  publisher = {Secretar{\'i}a de Salud}
}

@misc{SecretariadeSalud2022,
  title = {Datos {{Abiertos Direcci{\'o}n General}} de {{Epidemiolog{\'i}a}}},
  author = {{Direcci{\'o}n General de Epidemiolog{\'i}a}},
  year = {2022},
  publisher = {Secretar{\'i}a de Salud}
}

@article{Sender2022,
  title = {The Unmitigated Profile of {{COVID-19}} Infectiousness},
  author = {Sender, Ron and {Bar-On}, Yinon and Park, Sang Woo and Noor, Elad and Dushoff, Jonathan and Milo, Ron},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {eLife},
  volume = {11},
  pages = {1--37},
  issn = {2050-084X},
  doi = {10.7554/elife.79134},
  abstract = {Quantifying the temporal dynamics of infectiousness of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for understanding the spread of COVID-19 and for evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Many studies have estimated the infectiousness profile using observed serial intervals. However, statistical and epidemiological biases could lead to underestimation of the duration of infectiousness. We correct for these biases by curating data from the initial outbreak of the pandemic in China (when mitigation was minimal), and find that the infectiousness profile of the original strain is longer than previously thought. Sensitivity analysis shows our results are robust to model structure, assumed growth rate and potential observational biases. Although unmitigated transmission data is lacking for variants of concern (VOCs), previous analyses suggest that the alpha and delta variants have faster within-host kinetics, which we extrapolate to crude estimates of variant-specific unmitigated generation intervals. Knowing the unmitigated infectiousness profile of infected individuals can inform estimates of the effectiveness of isolation and quarantine measures. The framework presented here can help design better quarantine policies in early stages of future epidemics.},
  pmid = {35913120}
}

@article{Shi2010,
  title = {Modelling Seasonality and Viral Mutation to Predict the Course of an Influenza Pandemic},
  author = {Shi, P. and Keskinocak, P. and Swann, J. L. and Lee, B. Y.},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {Epidemiology and Infection},
  volume = {138},
  number = {10},
  pages = {1472--1481},
  issn = {09502688},
  doi = {10.1017/S0950268810000300},
  abstract = {As the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (H1N1) has shown, public health decision-makers may have to predict the subsequent course and severity of a pandemic. We developed an agent-based simulation model and used data from the state of Georgia to explore the influence of viral mutation and seasonal effects on the course of an influenza pandemic. We showed that when a pandemic begins in April certain conditions can lead to a second wave in autumn (e.g. the degree of seasonality exceeding 030, or the daily rate of immunity loss exceeding 1\% per day). Moreover, certain combinations of seasonality and mutation variables reproduced three-wave epidemic curves. Our results may offer insights to public health officials on how to predict the subsequent course of an epidemic or pandemic based on early and emerging viral and epidemic characteristics and what data may be important to gather. Copyright {\copyright} 2010 Cambridge University Press.},
  pmid = {20158932},
  keywords = {Influenza,pandemic,public health}
}

@article{Shu2017,
  title = {{{GISAID}}: {{Global}} Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data -- from Vision to Reality},
  author = {Shu, Yuelong and McCauley, John},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Eurosurveillance},
  volume = {22},
  number = {13},
  pages = {2--4},
  issn = {15607917},
  doi = {10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.13.30494},
  pmid = {28382917}
}

@article{Sims1974,
  title = {Output and Labor Input in Manufacturing},
  author = {Sims, Christopher A. and Lovell, Michael C. and Solow, Robert M.},
  year = {1974},
  journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
  volume = {1974},
  number = {3},
  pages = {695},
  issn = {00072303},
  doi = {10.2307/2534251}
}

@article{Slater2020,
  title = {After the Pandemic: {{Medium-term}} Growth Uncertainties},
  author = {Slater, Adam},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Economic Outlook},
  volume = {44},
  number = {2},
  pages = {5--9},
  issn = {14680319},
  doi = {10.1111/1468-0319.12476},
  abstract = {▪ The coronavirus is having a very large short-term negative impact on world growth. But the medium-term growth outlook is more uncertain. Much depends on the policy response - a strong and well-designed response could contain the medium-term output losses, but large and enduring damage is a risk. ▪ Growth patterns after significant GDP declines vary. Historical evidence points to large upfront effects from pandemics and natural disasters, but the medium-term outcomes are mixed, with policy responses a crucial determinant. Longer recessions and financial crises tend to lead to weaker medium-term growth. ▪ The coronavirus may trigger annual GDP declines among the worst seen in the last 100 years. Economies can bounce back sharply after such declines, but our analysis suggests output losses also endure in a significant number of cases. ▪ The US interwar experience shows the danger of allowing financial distress to snowball and exacerbate GDP declines. The weakness of medium-term growth after the global financial crisis confirms the long-term impact of such distress. ▪ A key risk for the medium term is that firms and/or households react to the coronavirus recession and disruption by raising savings, accelerating a shift toward `Japanification' of major economies. ▪ Our baseline forecasts envisage moderate medium-term output losses due to coronavirus, in part reflecting rapid and large-scale policy interventions. But uncertainty around this forecast is significant and considerable variation is possible across economies.}
}

@article{Smith2020,
  title = {Adherence to the Test, Trace and Isolate System: Results from a Time Series of 21 Nationally Representative Surveys in the {{UK}} (the {{COVID-19 Rapid Survey}} of {{Adherence}} to {{Interventions}} and {{Responses}} [{{CORSAIR}}] Study)},
  author = {Smith, Louise E and Potts, Henry WW and Amlȏt, Richard and Fear, Nicola T and Michie, Susan and Rubin, G James},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {medRxiv},
  pages = {2020.09.15.20191957},
  isbn = {10.1101/2020.09.1}
}

@article{Smith2020a,
  title = {Adherence to the Test, Trace and Isolate System: Results from a Time Series of 21 Nationally Representative Surveys in the {{UK}} (the {{COVID-19 Rapid Survey}} of {{Adherence}} to {{Interventions}} and {{Responses}} [{{CORSAIR}}] Study)},
  author = {Smith, Louise E and Potts, Henry WW and Amlȏt, Richard and Fear, Nicola T and Michie, Susan and Rubin, G James},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {medRxiv},
  volume = {1},
  pages = {2020.09.15.20191957},
  isbn = {10.1101/2020.09.1}
}

@article{Smith2021,
  title = {Adherence to the Test, Trace, and Isolate System in the {{UK}}: {{Results}} from 37 Nationally Representative Surveys},
  author = {Smith, Louise E. and Potts, Henry W.W. and Aml{\^o}t, Richard and Fear, Nicola T. and Michie, Susan and Rubin, G. James},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {The BMJ},
  volume = {372},
  issn = {17561833},
  doi = {10.1136/bmj.n608},
  pmid = {33789843}
}

@article{Smith2021a,
  title = {Do Members of the Public Think They Should Use Lateral Flow Tests ({{LFT}}) or Polymerase Chain Reaction ({{PCR}}) Tests When They Have {{COVID-19-like}} Symptoms? {{The COVID-19 Rapid Survey}} of {{Adherence}} to {{Interventions}} and {{Responses}} Study},
  author = {Smith, L. E. and Potts, H. W.W. and Amlȏt, R. and Fear, N. T. and Michie, S. and Rubin, G. J.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Public Health},
  volume = {198},
  pages = {260--262},
  issn = {14765616},
  doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.023},
  pmid = {34487869},
  keywords = {Antigen testing,Behaviour,COVID-19,Knowledge,Lateral flow devices,Testing}
}

@article{Smith2022,
  title = {Who Is Engaging with Lateral Flow Testing for {{COVID-19}} in the {{UK}}? {{The COVID-19 Rapid Survey}} of {{Adherence}} to {{Interventions}} and {{Responses}} ({{CORSAIR}}) Study},
  author = {Smith, Louise E. and Potts, Henry W.W. and Aml{\^o}t, Richard and Fear, Nicola T. and Michie, Susan and Rubin, G. James},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {BMJ Open},
  volume = {12},
  number = {2},
  pages = {1--12},
  issn = {20446055},
  doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2021-058060},
  pmid = {35144956},
  keywords = {COVID-19,public health}
}

@article{Smith2022a,
  title = {Intention to Adhere to Test, Trace, and Isolate during the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic (the {{COVID-19 Rapid Survey}} of {{Adherence}} to {{Interventions}} and {{Responses}} Study)},
  author = {Smith, Louise E. and Potts, Henry W.W. and Amlȏt, Richard and Fear, Nicola T. and Michie, Susan and Rubin, G. James},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {British Journal of Health Psychology},
  volume = {27},
  number = {3},
  pages = {1100--1118},
  issn = {20448287},
  doi = {10.1111/bjhp.12576},
  keywords = {behaviour,contact tracing,COVID-19,predictors,psychological factors}
}

@techreport{Smith2022b,
  title = {Knowledge of Self-Isolation Rules in the {{UK}} for Those Who Have Symptoms of {{Covid-19}}: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Survey Study},
  author = {Smith, Louise E. and West, Robert and Potts, Henry WW and Aml{\^o}t, Richard and Fear, Nicola T and Rubin, G James and Michie, Susan},
  year = {2022},
  isbn = {2013206534}
}

@techreport{Stantcheva2022,
  title = {Inequalities in the Pandemic},
  author = {Stantcheva, Stefanie},
  year = {2022},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  doi = {10.3386/w29657}
}

@article{Sunstein2014,
  title = {{{THE REAL WORLD OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS}} : {{THIRTY-SIX QUESTIONS}} ( {{AND ALMOST AS MANY ANSWERS}} ) {{Author}} ( s ): {{Cass R}} . {{Sunstein Published}} by : {{Columbia Law Review Association}} , {{Inc}} . {{Stable URL}} : {{http://www.jstor.org/stable/23561205}} {{THE REAL WORLD OF COST-B}}},
  author = {Sunstein, Cass R},
  year = {2014},
  volume = {114},
  number = {1},
  pages = {167--211}
}

@book{sunsteinValuingLifeHumanizing2014,
  title = {Valuing Life: Humanizing the Regulatory State},
  shorttitle = {Valuing Life},
  author = {Sunstein, Cass R.},
  year = {2014},
  publisher = {The University of Chicago Press},
  address = {Chicago},
  isbn = {978-0-226-12942-6 978-0-226-78017-7},
  langid = {english}
}

@article{Surendra2021,
  title = {Pandemic Inequity in a Megacity: A Multilevel Analysis of Individual, Community and Health Care Vulnerability Risks for {{COVID-19}} Mortality in {{Jakarta}}, {{Indonesia}}},
  author = {Surendra, Henry and Salama, Ngabila and Lestari, Karina D and Adrian, Verry and {Widyastuti} and Oktavia, Dwi and Lina, Rosa N and Djaafara, Bimandra A and Fadilah, Ihsan and Sagara, Rahmat and Ekawati, Lenny L and Nurhasim, Ahmad and Ahmad, Riris A and Kekalih, Aria and Syam, Ari F and Shankar, Anuraj H and Thwaites, Guy and Baird, J. Kevin and Hamers, Raph L. and Elyazar, Iqbal RF},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {medRxiv}
}

@article{Taillie2017,
  title = {Do High vs. Low Purchasers Respond Differently to a Nonessential Energy-Dense Food Tax? {{Two-year}} Evaluation of {{Mexico}}'s 8\% Nonessential Food Tax},
  author = {Taillie, Lindsey Smith and Rivera, Juan A. and Popkin, Barry M. and Batis, Carolina},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Preventive Medicine},
  volume = {105},
  pages = {S37-S42},
  publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
  issn = {10960260},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.07.009},
  pmid = {28729195},
  keywords = {Evaluation,Food taxes,Household purchases,Mexico}
}

@article{Teng2019,
  title = {Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Purchases and Dietary Intake: {{Systematic}} Review and Meta-Analysis},
  author = {Teng, Andrea M. and Jones, Amanda C. and Mizdrak, Anja and Signal, Louise and Gen{\c c}, Murat and Wilson, Nick},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Obesity Reviews},
  volume = {20},
  number = {9},
  pages = {1187--1204},
  issn = {1467789X},
  doi = {10.1111/obr.12868},
  isbn = {4201810062},
  pmid = {31218808},
  keywords = {evaluation,excise,meta-analysis,natural experiment,soft drinks,tax}
}

@techreport{TheDepartmentofEducation2022,
  title = {Enrollment {{Data}}, {{SY}} 2021--20},
  author = {{The Department of Education}},
  year = {2022},
  number = {May},
  address = {Pasig City},
  institution = {Department of Education Planning Service}
}

@article{theeconomistPandemicsTrueDeath2022,
  title = {The Pandemic's True Death Toll},
  author = {{The Economist}},
  year = {2022},
  month = jun
}

@article{TheGlobalFund2022,
  title = {Fight for {{What Counts Investment Case}}},
  author = {{The Global Fund}},
  year = {2022},
  pages = {1--4},
  abstract = {THE CHALLENGE Measles is one of the most contagious and deadly diseases ever known. In 2016 alone, it infected 7 million people, 1 with 95\% of the cases occurring in low-income countries with weak health systems. Measles spreads much more easily than the flu or Ebola and other headline-grabbing diseases. It remains one of the leading causes of death in children worldwide, killing nearly 250 children per day-despite the fact that a safe and effective vaccine has been available for over 50 years. As we are reminded by recent outbreaks in Yemen, Syria, Bangladesh, and Italy measles anywhere is a threat everywhere. While not as contagious as measles, rubella is an acute viral infection that is especially dangerous during pregnancy. Rubella can be passed from mother to her unborn child during pregnancy, resulting in multiple birth defects, including heart problems, deafness, blindness, and other lifelong complications with immeasurable emotional, social, and financial costs for families. Every year, 100,000 babies are born with CRS. It is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Unlike many other leading causes of childhood disease and death, both measles and rubella are easily preventable with a low-cost, highly effective, combined vaccine. At less than \$2 per dose, vaccinating a child against both measles and rubella is one of the best buys in global health. For every \$1 invested in measles, the return is 58 times that in social and economic benefits. Prevention of measles and rubella is far more cost-effective than managing the diseases, because of the tremendous socioeconomic toll they impose. In Africa, medical costs associated with treating measles can equal one month of family income. The lifetime costs for chronic care per case of CRS can exceed \$11,000 in low-income countries.},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/KT3WMJTA/The Global Fund - 2022 - Fight for What Counts Investment Case.pdf}
}

@misc{TheWorldBank2023,
  title = {Vietnam - {{Time-Use Survey}} 2022},
  author = {{The World Bank}},
  year = {2023}
}

@techreport{Tiberti2017,
  title = {A Top-down Behaviour ({{TDB}}) Microsimulation Toolkit for Distributive Analysis: {{A}} Manual},
  author = {Tiberti, Luca and Cicoweiz, Martin and Cockburn, John},
  year = {2017},
  number = {August},
  institution = {Partnership for Economic Policy}
}

@article{Tomas2000,
  title = {Chapter 33 {{Economic}} Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases},
  author = {Tomas, Philipson},
  year = {2000},
  journal = {Handbook of Health Economics},
  volume = {Volume 1,},
  pages = {1761-1799 T2 -},
  abstract = {Infectious diseases are is currently the main cause of mortality in the world and have been even more important historically. This paper reviews recent research in economic epidemiology. Specifically, it discusses the occurrence of infectious diseases and the effects of public health interventions designed to control them. Several key points include: differences in the predictions regarding short- and long-run disease occurrence between rational and epidemiological epidemics, the nonstandard effects of interventions when epidemics are rational, the desirability and possibility of eradicating infectious diseases, as well as the components of the welfare loss induced by infectious diseases.}
}

@article{Toomet2008,
  title = {Sample Selection Models in {{R}}: {{Package sampleSelection}}},
  author = {Toomet, Ott and Henningsen, Arne},
  year = {2008},
  journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
  volume = {27},
  number = {7},
  keywords = {econometrics,heckman selection models,r,sample selection models}
}

@article{Torgerson1999,
  title = {Discounting},
  author = {Torgerson, David J. and Raftery, James},
  year = {1999},
  journal = {Bmj},
  volume = {319},
  number = {7214},
  pages = {914},
  issn = {14685833},
  doi = {10.1136/bmj.319.7214.914}
}

@article{Torres-Ibarra2021,
  title = {{{SARS-CoV-2}} Infection Fatality Rate in {{Mexico}} after the First Epidemic Wave in {{Mexico}}},
  author = {{Torres-Ibarra}, Leticia and {Basto-Abreu}, Ana and Carnalla, Martha and Alvarez, Rossana Torres- and {Reyes-Sanchez}, Francisco and {Hern{\'a}ndez-{\'A}vila}, Juan E. and Mejia, Lina S. Palacio- and Alpuche, Celia and {Shamah-Levy}, Teresa and Rivera, Juan A. and {Barrientos-Gutierrez}, Tonatiuh},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
  isbn = {0820170194}
}

@article{Torres2018,
  title = {Obesity and Public Health in {{Mexico}}: {{Transforming}} the Hegemonic Food Supply and Demand Pattern},
  author = {Torres, Felipe and Rojas, Agust{\'i}n},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Problemas del Desarrollo},
  volume = {49},
  number = {193},
  pages = {145--169},
  issn = {20078951},
  abstract = {Excess weight and obesity are a major public health problem affecting Mexico's economic development. Studying them from a medical or epidemiological approach has proved insufficient, given the size of the problem and myriad factors underlying it. It is therefore time to bring an economic perspective into the analysis to find the structural causes, looking at the ways food is eaten, which shape the hegemonic supply and demand patterns imposed by the globalization of the markets, infringing on local patterns. The empirical evidence shows that the shift from a traditional diet to an industrialized diet with high sugar content and refined flours has fueled the prevalence of this public health problem.},
  keywords = {Demand,Excess weight,Food consumption,Food industry,Obesity,Public health,Supply}
}

@article{Turok2021,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} Amplifies Urban Inequalities},
  author = {Turok, Ivan and Visagie, Justin},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {South African Journal of Science},
  volume = {117},
  number = {3-4},
  pages = {2--5},
  issn = {19967489},
  doi = {10.17159/SAJS.2021/8939},
  keywords = {Coronavirus pandemic,Informal settlements,Place-based policies,Social grants,Spatial inequalities}
}

@techreport{UKHSA2021,
  title = {{{SARS-CoV-2}} Variants of Concern and Variants under Investigation in {{England}}: {{Technical}} Briefing 31},
  author = {{UK Health Security Agency}},
  year = {2022},
  number = {24 June},
  institution = {UK Health Security Agency}
}

@book{un,
  title = {International {{Standard Industrial Classification}} of {{All Economic Activities Revision}} 4},
  author = {{UN Economic and Social Affairs}},
  year = {2008},
  publisher = {United Nations},
  address = {New York},
  doi = {10.4337/9781781955659.00009},
  isbn = {978-92-1-161518-0}
}

@techreport{unesco,
  title = {The {{State}} of the {{Global Education Crisis}}: {{A Path}} to {{Recovery}}},
  author = {{The World Bank} and {UNICEF} and {UNESCO}},
  year = {2021},
  address = {Washington D.C., Paris, New York},
  institution = {{The World Bank, UNICEF, and UNESCO}},
  doi = {10.4324/9781315862972},
  isbn = {9789231004919}
}

@misc{untourismInternationalTourismCOVID192023,
  title = {International {{Tourism}} and {{COVID-19}}},
  author = {{UN Tourism}},
  year = {2023},
  urldate = {2023-05-15}
}

@misc{untourismKeyTourismStatistics2023,
  title = {Key {{Tourism Statistics}}},
  author = {{UN Tourism}},
  year = {2023},
  urldate = {2023-05-15}
}

@article{Vaezi2022,
  title = {{{COVID-19}} Vaccines Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: {{A}} Scenario for {{Iran}}},
  author = {Vaezi, Atefeh and Meysamie, Alipasha},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Vaccines},
  volume = {10},
  number = {37},
  issn = {2076393X},
  doi = {10.3390/vaccines10010037},
  keywords = {Cost-effectiveness analysis,Effectiveness,SARS-CoV-2,SARS-CoV-2 vaccines}
}

@article{VanGoethem2022,
  title = {Severity of Infection with the {{SARS-CoV-2 B}}.1.1.7 Lineage among Hospitalized {{COVID-19}} Patients in {{Belgium}}},
  author = {Van Goethem, Nina and Vandromme, Mathil and Van Oyen, Herman and Haarhuis, Freek and Brondeel, Ruben and Catteau, Lucy and Andr{\'e}, Emmanuel and Cuypers, Lize and Blot, Koen and Serrien, Ben},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  volume = {17},
  number = {6 June},
  pages = {1--20},
  issn = {19326203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0269138},
  abstract = {Introduction The pathogenesis of COVID-19 depends on the interplay between host characteristics, viral characteristics and contextual factors. Here, we compare COVID-19 disease severity between hospitalized patients in Belgium infected with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 and those infected with previously circulating strains. Methods The study is conducted within a causal framework to study the severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants by merging surveillance registries in Belgium. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (`exposed') was compared to infection with previously circulating strains (`unexposed') in terms of the manifestation of severe COVID-19, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or in-hospital mortality. The exposed and unexposed group were matched based on the hospital and the mean ICU occupancy rate during the patient's hospital stay. Other variables identified as confounders in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) were adjusted for using regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of selection bias, vaccination rollout, and unmeasured confounding. Results We observed no difference between the exposed and unexposed group in severe COVID-19 disease or in-hospital mortality (RR = 1.15, 95\% CI [0.93--1.38] and RR = 0.92, 95\% CI [0.62--1.23], respectively). The estimated standardized risk to be admitted in ICU was significantly higher (RR = 1.36, 95\% CI [1.03--1.68]) when infected with the B.1.1.7 variant. An age-stratified analysis showed that among the younger age group ({$\leq$}65 years), the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was significantly associated with both severe COVID-19 progression and ICU admission. Conclusion This matched observational cohort study did not find an overall increased risk of severe COVID-19 or death associated with B.1.1.7 infection among patients already hospitalized. There was a significant increased risk to be transferred to ICU when infected with the B.1.1.7 variant, especially among the younger age group. However, potential selection biases advocate for more systematic sequencing of samples from hospitalized COVID-19 patients.},
  isbn = {1111111111},
  pmid = {35657787}
}

@article{vegfaSciencemagOrg2021,
  title = {Sciencemag.Org},
  author = {Vegfa, How},
  year = {2021},
  volume = {373},
  number = {6554},
  pages = {491--494}
}

@article{Viasus2011,
  title = {Factors Associated with Severe Disease in Hospitalized Adults with Pandemic ({{H1N1}}) 2009 in {{Spain}}},
  author = {Viasus, D. and {Pa{\~n}o-Pardo}, J. R. and Pach{\'o}n, J. and Campins, A. and {L{\'o}pez-Medrano}, F. and Villoslada, A. and Fari{\~n}as, M. C. and Moreno, A. and {Rodr{\'i}guez-Ba{\~n}o}, J. and Oteo, J. A. and {Mart{\'i}nez-Montauti}, J. and {Torre-Cisneros}, J. and Segura, F. and Gudiol, F. and Carratal{\`a}, J.},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {Clinical Microbiology and Infection},
  volume = {17},
  pages = {738--746},
  issn = {14690691},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2010.03362.x},
  keywords = {Epidemiology,Influenza A (H1N1) 2009,Intensive-care unit,Mortality,Risk factors}
}

@article{Viscusi2017,
  title = {Income {{Elasticities}} and {{Global Values}} of a {{Statistical Life}}},
  author = {Viscusi, W. Kip and Masterman, Clayton J.},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {226--250},
  issn = {2194-5888},
  doi = {10.1017/bca.2017.12},
  keywords = {income elasticity,life,meta-analysis,publication,value of a statistical}
}

@article{Volz2021,
  title = {Assessing Transmissibility of {{SARS-CoV-2}} Lineage {{B}}.1.1.7 in {{England}}},
  author = {Volz, Erik and Mishra, Swapnil and Chand, Meera and Barrett, Jeffrey C. and Johnson, Robert and Geidelberg, Lily and Hinsley, Wes R. and Laydon, Daniel J. and Dabrera, Gavin and O'Toole, {\'A}ine and Amato, Roberto and {Ragonnet-Cronin}, Manon and Harrison, Ian and Jackson, Ben and Ariani, Cristina V. and Boyd, Olivia and Loman, Nicholas J. and McCrone, John T. and Gon{\c c}alves, S{\'o}nia and Jorgensen, David and Myers, Richard and Hill, Verity and Jackson, David K. and Gaythorpe, Katy and Groves, Natalie and Sillitoe, John and Kwiatkowski, Dominic P. and Flaxman, Seth and Ratmann, Oliver and Bhatt, Samir and Hopkins, Susan and Gandy, Axel and Rambaut, Andrew and Ferguson, Neil M.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = {593},
  number = {May},
  issn = {14764687},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x},
  pmid = {33767447}
}

@article{Vos2010,
  title = {A {{Non-Parametric Microsimulation Approach}} to {{Assess Changes}} in {{Inequality}} and {{Poverty}}},
  author = {Vos, Rob and S{\'a}nchez, Marco V},
  year = {2009},
  journal = {International Journal of Microsimulation},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1},
  pages = {8--23},
  doi = {10.34196/ijm.00021},
  abstract = {ABSTRACT: This paper presents a non-parametric microsimulation methodology for assessing the impact of labour market changes and government transfers on income inequality and poverty at the household level. The approach assumes that labour markets are segmented and determines (as part of a randomized process) which individuals are expected to move in or out of employment and which move from one employment segment to another based on either known or counterfactual information of aggregate labour market changes. The methodology assumes that the distribution of earnings of those who become employed in a particular segment resembles that of the individuals observed to be employed in that segment. The approach can be effectively combined in top-down fashion with static or dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which typically provide insufficient information about household income distribution. The paper discusses the virtues and limitations of applying this methodology and further explains to practitioners how to implement it as a stand-alone methodology or in combination with a CGE model. It also shows how the methodology can be generalized to also capture the poverty and inequality effects of changes in non-labour incomes, such as government transfers. One great advantage of this method is that it is not very demanding in terms of modelling labour supply and household behaviour as compared with alternative parametric approaches, while at the same time providing a plausible link between changes in overall labour market conditions and the full household income distribution.}
}

@article{vynnyckyAnalyses1957Asian2008,
  title = {Analyses of the 1957 ({{Asian}}) Influenza Pandemic in the {{United Kingdom}} and the Impact of School Closures},
  author = {Vynnycky, E. and Edmunds, W. J.},
  year = {2008},
  journal = {Epidemiology and Infection},
  volume = {136},
  pages = {166--179},
  doi = {10.1017/S0950268807008369}
}

@article{Walker2020,
  title = {The Impact of {{COVID-19}} and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression in Low- and Middle-Income Countries},
  author = {Walker, Patrick G.T. and Whittaker, Charles and Watson, Oliver J. and Baguelin, Marc and Winskill, Peter and Hamlet, Arran and Djafaara, Bimandra A. and Cucunub{\'a}, Zulma and Mesa, Daniela Olivera and Green, Will and Thompson, Hayley and Nayagam, Shevanthi and Ainslie, Kylie E.C. and Bhatia, Sangeeta and Bhatt, Samir and Boonyasiri, Adhiratha and Boyd, Olivia and Brazeau, Nicholas F. and Cattarino, Lorenzo and {Cuomo-Dannenburg}, Gina and Dighe, Amy and Donnelly, Christl A. and Dorigatti, Ilaria and Van Elsland, Sabine L. and FitzJohn, Rich and Fu, Han and Gaythorpe, Katy A.M. and Geidelberg, Lily and Grassly, Nicholas and Haw, David and Hayes, Sarah and Hinsley, Wes and Imai, Natsuko and Jorgensen, David and Knock, Edward and Laydon, Daniel and Mishra, Swapnil and {Nedjati-Gilani}, Gemma and Okell, Lucy C. and Unwin, H. Juliette and Verity, Robert and Vollmer, Michaela and Walters, Caroline E. and Wang, Haowei and Wang, Yuanrong and Xi, Xiaoyue and Lalloo, David G. and Ferguson, Neil M. and Ghani, Azra C.},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Science},
  volume = {369},
  number = {6502},
  pages = {413--422},
  issn = {10959203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.abc0035},
  abstract = {The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.},
  pmid = {32532802}
}

@article{Wang2022,
  title = {{{COVID-19 Mortality}} and {{Economic Losses}}: {{The Role}} of {{Policies}} and {{Structural Conditions}}},
  author = {Wang, Weichen and Gurgone, Andrea and Mart{\'i}nez, Humberto and Barbieri G{\'o}es, Maria Cristina and Gallo, Ettore and Ker{\'e}nyi, {\'A}dam and Turco, Enrico Maria and Coburger, Carla and Andrade, P{\^e}dra D.S.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Journal of Risk and Financial Management},
  volume = {15},
  number = {354},
  issn = {19118074},
  doi = {10.3390/jrfm15080354},
  abstract = {The response of governments to the COVID-19 outbreak was foremost oriented to two objectives: saving lives and limiting economic losses. However, the effectiveness and success factors of interventions were unknown ex-ante. This study aims to shed light on the drivers of countries' performances during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure performances by excess mortality and GDP growth adjusted for additional fiscal stimulus. We conduct an empirical analysis in two stages: first, using hierarchical clustering, we partition countries based on their similarity in health and economic outcomes. Second, we identify the key drivers of outcomes in each country cluster by regression analysis, which include linear, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and logit models. We argue that differences in countries' performances can be traced back both to policy responses to COVID-19 and structural conditions, the latter being immutable over the pandemic. Three relevant structural conditions emerge from the results: trade reliance on services, corruption, and the size of the vulnerable population (elderly, low-income, smoking, or cardiovascular-failing). Policies such as large-scale open public testing and additional fiscal stimulus in non-health could help reduce excess mortality, which might lead to lower economic losses.},
  keywords = {covid economics,COVID-19,health policy,resilience,SARS-CoV-2,system recovery}
}

@article{Watson2022,
  title = {Global Impact of the First Year of {{COVID-19}} Vaccination: A Mathematical Modelling Study},
  author = {Watson, Oliver J and Barnsley, Gregory and Toor, Jaspreet and Hogan, Alexandra B and Winskill, Peter and Ghani, Azra C},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
  volume = {3099},
  number = {22},
  pages = {1--10},
  publisher = {The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license},
  issn = {1473-3099},
  doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6}
}

@article{Watson2022a,
  title = {Three, Four or More: What's the Magic Number for Booster Shots?},
  author = {Watson, Clare},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = {602},
  number = {7895},
  pages = {17--18},
  issn = {14764687},
  doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-00200-9},
  pmid = {35091715},
  keywords = {Infection,Public health,SARS-CoV-2,Vaccines}
}

@techreport{WB2013,
  title = {Seychelles: {{Tourism Sector Review}}: {{Sustaining}} Growth in a Successful Tourism Destination},
  author = {{World Bank Group}},
  year = {2013},
  institution = {World Bank Group}
}

@article{Welsh2022,
  title = {Workplace Contact Patterns across Occupational Groups},
  author = {Welsh, Claire E.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Europe},
  volume = {16},
  pages = {100356},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {26667762},
  doi = {10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100356}
}

@article{Whitaker,
  title = {Address for {{Correspondence}} : {{Keywords Research}} in Context},
  author = {Whitaker, Matthew and Elliott, Joshua and {Chadeau-hyam}, Marc and Riley, Steven and Darzi, Ara and Cooke, Graham and Ward, Helen and Elliott, Paul and Analytics, Emergency and Elliott, Paul}
}

@misc{whittakerQuantifyingImpactBroadly2024,
  title = {Quantifying the Impact of a Broadly Protective Sarbecovirus Vaccine in a Future {{SARS-X}} Pandemic},
  author = {Whittaker, Charles and Barnsley, Gregory and Olivera Mesa, Daniela and Laydon, Daniel J and Tan, Chee Wah and Zhu, Feng and Johnson, Rob and Doohan, Patrick and {Nedjati-Gilani}, Gemma and Winskill, Peter and Hogan, Alexandra B. and Deol, Arminder and Mukandavire, Christinah and Hauck, Katharina and Lye, David Chien Boon and Wang, Lin-Fa and Watson, Oliver J. and Ghani, Azra C},
  year = {2024},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.1101/2024.08.12.24311730},
  urldate = {2024-08-30},
  abstract = {Abstract           COVID-19 has underscored the need for more timely access to vaccines during future pandemics. This has motivated development of broad-spectrum vaccines providing protection against viral families, which could be stockpiled ahead of an outbreak and deployed rapidly following detection. We use mathematical modelling to evaluate the utility of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine (BPSV) during a hypothetical SARS-X outbreak, including ring-vaccination, spatial targeting and mass vaccination of high-risk populations. Our results show BPSV ring- or spatially-targeted vaccination strategies are unlikely to contain a SARS-CoV-2-like virus but could contain or slow the spread of a SARS-CoV-1-like virus. Vaccination of high-risk populations with the BPSV ahead of a virus-specific vaccine (VSV) becoming available could substantially reduce mortality. For a 250-day VSV development timeline, BPSV availability reduced infection-related deaths in our model by 54\% on average, though exact impact depended on the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) scenario considered. We further show that BPSV availability enables shorter and less stringent NPIs to be imposed whilst limiting disease burden to that observed in the VSV-only scenario, though results are sensitive to vaccine properties (e.g. efficacy), health system capabilities (e.g. vaccination rollout speed) and the assumed timeline to VSV availability. Our modelling suggests that availability of a BPSV for those aged 60+ years could have averted 40-65\% of COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic's first year, with exact impact depending on the size of the maintained stockpile. Our work highlights significant potential impact of a BPSV, but that achieving this depends on investment into health systems enabling rapid and equitable access during future SARS-X pandemics.},
  copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/NEV7RQF7/Whittaker et al. - 2024 - Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sar.pdf}
}

@misc{whoSummaryMeaslesRubellaSupplementary2022,
  title = {Summary of {{Measles-Rubella Supplementary Immunization Activities}}},
  author = {{WHO}},
  year = {2022},
  urldate = {2024-05-16},
  abstract = {IVB}
}

@techreport{Wilkinson2012,
  title = {World {{Economic Outlook}}: {{Global Manufacturing Downturn}}, {{Rising Trade Barriers}}},
  author = {{International Monetary Fund}},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Encyclopedia of Governance},
  institution = {International Monetary Fund},
  doi = {10.4135/9781412952613.n572},
  isbn = {9781513508214}
}

@article{Williams2023,
  title = {A Systematic Review of Discounting in National Health Economic Evaluation Guidelines: Healthcare Value Implications},
  author = {Williams, Abimbola O. and Rojanasarot, Sirikan and McGovern, Alysha M. and Kumar, Arun},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research},
  volume = {12},
  number = {2},
  issn = {20426313},
  doi = {10.2217/cer-2022-0167},
  abstract = {Aim: This review summarizes the discounting approaches recommended in current economic evaluation (EE) guidelines for healthcare programs and interventions. Materials \& methods: A systematic review of EE guidelines for healthcare, published up to July 2022, was conducted. Results: A total of 52 EE guidelines were reviewed. The majority of these guidelines recommend equal discounting (80.8\%) rather than differential discounting (9.6\%). The rationale for equal discounting includes recommendations by the government, consistency with other countries, and economic development. However, the rationale for differential discounting is based on the interest in short-term government bonds and anticipated budget changes. Discussion: This review demonstrates variation in both discounting approaches and rates across EE guidelines and underscores the need for a global consensus on discounting approaches.},
  pmid = {36476014},
  keywords = {cost-effectiveness analysis,decision making,discounting,economic evaluation,health economics,health technology assessment,practice guidelines}
}

@article{Wirawan2020,
  title = {Forecasting {{COVID-19}} Transmission and Healthcare Capacity in {{Bali}}, {{Indonesia}}},
  author = {Wirawan, Ady and Januraga, Pande Putu},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health},
  volume = {53},
  number = {3},
  pages = {158--163},
  issn = {19758375},
  doi = {10.3961/JPMPH.20.152},
  pmid = {32498137},
  keywords = {COVID-19,Forecasting,Healthcare,Indonesia}
}

@article{wongSocialContactPatterns2023,
  title = {Social Contact Patterns during the {{COVID}}-19 Pandemic in 21 {{European}} Countries -- Evidence from a Two-year Study},
  author = {Wong, Kerry L M and Gimma, Amy and Coletti, Pietro and Europe, Comix and Group, Working and Faes, Christel and Beutels, Philippe and Hens, Niel and Jaeger, Veronika K and Karch, Andre and Johnson, Helen and Edmunds, Wjohn and Jarvis, Christopher I},
  year = {2023},
  pages = {1--14},
  doi = {10.1186/s12879-023-08214-y},
  isbn = {1287902308},
  keywords = {contact survey,covid-19 pandemic,physical,sars-cov-2 transmission,social contacts,social distance}
}

@book{WorldHealthOrganization2019,
  title = {Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Measures for Mitigating the Risk and Impact of Epidemic and Pandemic Influenza},
  author = {{World Health Organization}},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {No. 2019/1},
  abstract = {Influenza pandemics occur at unpredictable intervals, and cause considerable morbidity and mortality. Influenza virus is readily transmissible from person to person, mainly during close contact, and is challenging to control. In the early stage of influenza epidemics and pandemics, there may be delay in the availability of specific vaccines and limited supply of antiviral drugs. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the only set of pandemic countermeasures that are readily available at all times and in all countries. The potential impacts of NPIs on an influenza epidemic or pandemic are to delay the introduction of the pandemic virus into a population; delay the height and peak of the epidemic if the epidemic has started; reduce transmission by personal protective or environmental measures; and reduce the total number of infections and hence the total number of severe cases.},
  isbn = {978-92-4-151683-9}
}

@article{Wu2022,
  title = {A Global Assessment of the Impact of School Closure in Reducing {{COVID-19}} Spread},
  author = {Wu, Joseph T. and Mei, Shujiang and Luo, Sihui and Leung, Kathy and Liu, Di and Lv, Qiuying and Liu, Jian and Li, Yuan and Prem, Kiesha and Jit, Mark and Weng, Jianping and Feng, Tiejian and Zheng, Xueying and Leung, Gabriel M.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
  volume = {380},
  number = {2214},
  issn = {1364503X},
  doi = {10.1098/rsta.2021.0124},
  abstract = {Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75\% and 32\% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.},
  keywords = {COVID-19,epidemiology,infectiousness,SARS-CoV-2,school closure,susceptibility}
}

@techreport{Wulandari,
  title = {Deriving {{Indonesia}}'s Value of a Statistical Life},
  author = {Wulandari, Lara},
  year = {2020},
  institution = {University of Toronto}
}

@article{Wymant2021,
  title = {The Epidemiological Impact of the {{NHS COVID-19}} App},
  author = {Wymant, Chris and Ferretti, Luca and Tsallis, Daphne and Charalambides, Marcos and {Abeler-D{\"o}rner}, Lucie and Bonsall, David and Hinch, Robert and Kendall, Michelle and Milsom, Luke and Ayres, Matthew and Holmes, Chris and Briers, Mark and Fraser, Christophe},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = {594},
  number = {7863},
  pages = {408--412},
  publisher = {Springer US},
  issn = {14764687},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-021-03606-z},
  pmid = {33979832}
}

@misc{x13,
  title = {X-{{13ARIMA-SEATS Reference Manual}}},
  author = {{Center for Statistical Research and Methodology}},
  year = {2017},
  publisher = {U. S. Census Bureau},
  keywords = {AIC,AICC,automatic model selection,automatic outlier selection,automatic transformation selection,diagnostics,irregular,likelihood statistics,model based signal extraction,moving holiday,power transformations,regARIMA models,revisions history diagnostics,seasonal,seasonal adjustment,seasonality,sliding spans diagnostics,trading day,trend}
}

@article{Xia2021,
  title = {Quantifying Competitive Advantages of Mutant Strains in a Population Involving Importation and Mass Vaccination Rollout},
  author = {Xia, Fan and Yang, Xinpei and Cheke, Robert A. and Xiao, Yanni},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Infectious Disease Modelling},
  volume = {6},
  pages = {988--996},
  publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
  issn = {24680427},
  doi = {10.1016/j.idm.2021.08.001},
  keywords = {Competitive advantage,COVID-19,Reproduction number,SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant}
}

@article{Xiong2022,
  title = {Economic Value of Vaccines to Address the {{COVID-19}} Pandemic in {{Hong Kong}}: {{A}} Cost-Effectiveness Analysis},
  author = {Xiong, Xuechen and Li, Jing and Huang, Bo and Tam, Tony and Hong, Yingyi and Chong, Ka Chun and Huo, Zhaohua},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Vaccines},
  volume = {10},
  number = {495},
  issn = {2076393X},
  doi = {10.3390/vaccines10040495},
  keywords = {cost-effectiveness,economic analysis,Hong Kong,vaccine}
}

@article{Yaari2013,
  title = {Modelling Seasonal Influenza: {{The}} Role of Weather and Punctuated Antigenic Drift},
  author = {Yaari, R. and Katriel, G. and Huppert, A. and Axelsen, J. B. and Stone, L.},
  year = {2013},
  journal = {Journal of the Royal Society Interface},
  volume = {10},
  number = {84},
  issn = {17425662},
  doi = {10.1098/rsif.2013.0298},
  abstract = {Seasonal influenza appears as annual oscillations in temperate regions of the world, yet little is known as towhat drives these annual outbreaks andwhat factors are responsible for their inter-annual variability. Recent studies suggest that weather variables, such as absolute humidity, are the key drivers of annual influenza outbreaks. The rapid, punctuated, antigenic evolution of the influenza virus is another major factor. We present a newframework for modelling seasonal influenza based on a discrete-time, age-of-infection, epidemicmodel, which allows the calculation of themodel's likelihood function in closed form. This framework may be used to perform model inference and parameter estimation rigorously. Themodelling approach allows us to fit 11 years of Israeli influenza data, with the best models fitting the data with unusually high correlations in which r {$>$} 0.9.We show that using actual weather to modulate influenza transmission rate gives better results than using the inter-annual means of the weather variables, providing strong support for the role of weather in shaping the dynamics of influenza. This conclusion remains valid even when incorporating amore realistic depiction of the decay of immunity at the population level, which allows for discrete changes in immunity from year to year. {\copyright} 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.},
  pmid = {23676899},
  keywords = {Antigenic drift,Epidemic modelling,Maximum likelihood,Model fitting,Seasonal influenza,Weather}
}

@article{Yamey2022,
  title = {It Is Not Too Late to Achieve Global {{COVID-19}} Vaccine Equity},
  author = {Yamey, Gavin and Garcia, Patricia and Hassan, Fatima and Mao, Wenhui and McDade, Kaci Kennedy and Pai, Madhukar and Saha, Senjuti and Schellekens, Philip and Taylor, Andrea and Udayakumar, Krishna},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {The BMJ},
  number = {March},
  issn = {17561833},
  doi = {10.1136/bmj-2022-070650},
  pmid = {35331982}
}

@techreport{Yarrow2020,
  title = {Estimates of {{COVID-19}} Impacts on Learning and Earning in {{Indonesia}}: How to Turn the Tide},
  author = {Yarrow, Noah and Masood, Eema and Afkar, Rythia},
  year = {2020},
  number = {August},
  institution = {The World Bank},
  doi = {10.1596/34378},
  abstract = {The authors use the World Bank's recently developed country tool for simulating Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) impacts on learning and schooling outcomes and data from the forthcoming Indonesia education service delivery indicator survey to simulate and {\dots}}
}

@article{Yates2022,
  title = {A Population-Based Cohort Study of Obesity, Ethnicity and {{COVID-19}} Mortality in 12.6 Million Adults in {{England}}},
  author = {Yates, Thomas and Summerfield, Annabel and Razieh, Cameron and Banerjee, Amitava and Chudasama, Yogini and Davies, Melanie J and Gillies, Clare and Islam, Nazrul and Lawson, Claire and Mirkes, Evgeny and Zaccardi, Francesco and Khunti, Kamlesh and Nafilyan, Vahe},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  volume = {13},
  number = {624},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-28248-1}
}

@article{zhaoGlobalClimateDamage2020,
  title = {Global Climate Damage in 2 {$^\circ$}{{C}} and 1.5 {$^\circ$}{{C}} Scenarios Based on {{BCC}}\_{{SESM}} Model in {{IAM}} Framework},
  author = {Zhao, Zi-Jian and Chen, Xiao-Tong and Liu, Chang-Yi and Yang, Fang and Tan, Xin and Zhao, Yang and Huang, Han and Wei, Chao and Shi, Xue-Li and Zhai, Wen and Guo, Fei and Van Ruijven, Bas J.},
  year = {2020},
  month = sep,
  journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {261--272},
  issn = {16749278},
  doi = {10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.008},
  urldate = {2024-08-30},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/rj411/Zotero/storage/I8HZBSFB/Zhao et al. - 2020 - Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.pdf}
}

@article{Zhou2022,
  title = {Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for the Prevention and Control of {{COVID-19}}: {{Systematic}} Review of 85 Modelling Studies},
  author = {Zhou, Lihui and Yan, Wenxin and Li, Shu and Yang, Hongxi and Zhang, Xinyu and Lu, Wenli and Liu, Jue and Wang, Yaogang},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Journal of Global Health},
  volume = {12},
  issn = {2047-2978},
  doi = {10.7189/jogh.12.05022}
}